The Higher Standard Fed Meeting, $100 Billion Loss & Saied is RFK, Jr.
Please place all seat back and tray tables in their locked and upright positions, because you're about to go on a long voyage of economic data baby! Saied, Chris and Haroon are back and they have a lot to talk about in this episode. The September 20th Fed announcement hasn't even happened yet and Goldman Sachs is already saying that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in November. So, naturally The Higher Standard had to chime in to the debate. Chris offers up a questionable segue into why a soft landing could not only be elusive, but then explains why the current Fed Policy is costing the Fed between $100 billion and $200 billion themselves. Chris and Saied then dive down deep in to the dark canyon of a hole that is the inverted yield curve where they discuss the wide spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasuries. Which also happens to be at it deepest inversion since 1981. Haroon provide an elegant hypothetical answer to an intimate personal question and legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is ringing alarm bells.
Resources:
Fed unlikely to raise rates in November, says Goldman Sachs (Reuters)
Why a Soft Landing Could Prove Elusive (Wall Street Journal)
Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise (Reuters)
Economist says S&P 500 will sink 40% due to recession (Business News)
Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries at deepest inversion since '81 (Reuters)
The bond market has broken the longest time ever with a 10-year field, 3 month inversion at 212 days per Bloomberg (Unusual Whales via Instagram)
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