We Are Not Saved

When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by: Roger Lowenstein How to Live on 24 Hours a Day by: Arnold Bennet Burning Chrome by: William Gibson Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy by:  Richard Hanania Virtue Hoarders: The Case against the Professional Managerial Class by: Catherine Liu Mythos: The Greek Myths Retold by: Stephen Fry Heroes: Mortals and Monsters, Quests and Adventures by: Stephen Fry If You Absolutely Must…: a brief guide to writing and selling short-form argumentative nonfiction from a somewhat reluctant professional writer by: Fredrik deBoer Expeditionary Force Book 8: Armageddon by: Craig Alanson

Transcript: https://wearenotsaved.com/2022/03/31/eschatologist-15-covid-and-ukraine-the-return-of-messiness/ The last few decades have been a historical aberration, a time when things seemed simple and progress seemed inevitable. Alternatively we threw up our hands and assumed that our problems were so great that they risked causing the "End of the World". Reality is more messy, we will neither be permanently saved or irrevocably destroyed. Rather the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine demonstrates that messiness has returned, and we need to get better at dealing with it.

I initially decided to to weigh in on Ukraine because so many other people were. But as the situation becomes more and more potentially apocalyptic it started to appear that I would have to. But don't worry, I don't rehash the same talking points as everyone else. My big worry is whether we can figure out some point of stability where nukes exist, but no one uses them. We had that during the Cold War, but that was a bipolar situation where both sides were very similar in strength. Essentially the easiest situation imaginable from a game theory perspective. Unfortunately the future promises to be multipolar, contain lots of nations with nukes who all are at various power levels. How are we going to navigate this treacherous situation? Is it even possible?

The Constitution of Knowledge: A Defense of Truth by Jonathan Rauch Trans: When Ideology Meets Reality by: Helen Joyce The Hard Sell: Crime and Punishment at an Opioid Startup by: Evan Hughes Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don’t Know by: Adam M. Grant The Moth Presents Occasional Magic: True Stories about Defying the Impossible by: Various Nicholas and Alexandra: The Fall of the Romanov Dynasty by: Robert K. Massie Greenlights by: Matthew McConaughey  The Midnight Library by: Matt Haig Trouble on Paradise: Expeditionary Force, Book 3.5 by: Craig Alanson Black Ops: Expeditionary Force, Book 4 by: Craig Alanson Zero Hour: Expeditionary Force, Book 5 by: Craig Alanson Mavericks: Expeditionary Force, Book 6 by: Craig Alanson Renegades: Expeditionary Force, Book 7 by: Craig Alanson

It seems that some people are over-reacting to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We have gone so long without a war that we can only imagine it in apocalyptic terms. But that's precisely what we don't want to do because unlike any other point in history this war could turn into the apocalypse, and that's the last thing we want to do.

At some point, in some episode (and probably several episodes) I asserted that: The world is changing faster than we can adapt to it.  Then (and now) this statement seemed obvious, so I remember being surprised when I got some pushback on it. But upon reflection it was also illuminating. Many disagreements come down to core values and assumptions which are so deeply embedded that we’ve forgotten they’re there. It’s what makes these disagreements so intractable. We’re arguing from different, unseen foundations. I decided it was past time to unearth this particular foundation, and examine its various parts. What do I mean by “the world” and “change” and “speed” and “adaptation”? And if we can come to an agreement on all of that, what are the consequences of change moving faster than our ability to adapt?

I take a break from talking about the collapse of society and the world to rant about reading. In particular all the people who say I'm doing it wrong. 

Empire of Pain: The Secret History of the Sackler Dynasty by: Patrick Radden Keefe Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19 by: Matt Ridley and Alina Chan Exact Thinking in Demented Times: The Vienna Circle and the Epic Quest for the Foundations of Science by: Karl Sigmund Columbus Day: Expeditionary Force, Book 1 by: Craig Alanson SpecOps: Expeditionary Force, Book 2 by: Craig Alanson Paradise: Expeditionary Force, Book 3 by: Craig Alanson Row Daily, Breathe Deeper, Live Better: A Guide to Moderate Exercise by: Dustin Ordway Indistractable: How to Control Your Attention and Choose Your Life by: Nir Eyal What is a p-value anyway? 34 Stories to Help You Actually Understand Statistics by: Andrew Vickers The Least of Us: True Tales of America and Hope in the Time of Fentanyl and Meth by: Sam Quinones Empire of the Summer Moon: Quanah Parker and the Rise and Fall of the Comanches, the Most Powerful Indian Tribe in American History by: S. C. Gwynne Heart: The City Beneath by: Grant Howitt and Christopher Taylor

It's time for my newsletter again, and after going step by step through the ideas of Taleb we finally arrive at his crowning idea: antifragility. Perhaps the biggest contribution Taleb makes to our understanding of the world that by grappling with the idea of the opposite of fragility he was able to define fragility, and point out that the modern world is chock full of it.

It's not the end of the pandemic or even the beginning of the end, but we might be at the end of the beginning, and since I just read three books on the subject I thought I'd see what could be said at this point. Come for the discussion of school closure and why it might have seemed so important in the beginning, stay for an overview of the lab leak hypothesis. But most of all just listen to the episode!