We Are Not Saved

It seems that some people are over-reacting to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We have gone so long without a war that we can only imagine it in apocalyptic terms. But that's precisely what we don't want to do because unlike any other point in history this war could turn into the apocalypse, and that's the last thing we want to do.

At some point, in some episode (and probably several episodes) I asserted that: The world is changing faster than we can adapt to it.  Then (and now) this statement seemed obvious, so I remember being surprised when I got some pushback on it. But upon reflection it was also illuminating. Many disagreements come down to core values and assumptions which are so deeply embedded that we’ve forgotten they’re there. It’s what makes these disagreements so intractable. We’re arguing from different, unseen foundations. I decided it was past time to unearth this particular foundation, and examine its various parts. What do I mean by “the world” and “change” and “speed” and “adaptation”? And if we can come to an agreement on all of that, what are the consequences of change moving faster than our ability to adapt?

I take a break from talking about the collapse of society and the world to rant about reading. In particular all the people who say I'm doing it wrong. 

Empire of Pain: The Secret History of the Sackler Dynasty by: Patrick Radden Keefe Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19 by: Matt Ridley and Alina Chan Exact Thinking in Demented Times: The Vienna Circle and the Epic Quest for the Foundations of Science by: Karl Sigmund Columbus Day: Expeditionary Force, Book 1 by: Craig Alanson SpecOps: Expeditionary Force, Book 2 by: Craig Alanson Paradise: Expeditionary Force, Book 3 by: Craig Alanson Row Daily, Breathe Deeper, Live Better: A Guide to Moderate Exercise by: Dustin Ordway Indistractable: How to Control Your Attention and Choose Your Life by: Nir Eyal What is a p-value anyway? 34 Stories to Help You Actually Understand Statistics by: Andrew Vickers The Least of Us: True Tales of America and Hope in the Time of Fentanyl and Meth by: Sam Quinones Empire of the Summer Moon: Quanah Parker and the Rise and Fall of the Comanches, the Most Powerful Indian Tribe in American History by: S. C. Gwynne Heart: The City Beneath by: Grant Howitt and Christopher Taylor

It's time for my newsletter again, and after going step by step through the ideas of Taleb we finally arrive at his crowning idea: antifragility. Perhaps the biggest contribution Taleb makes to our understanding of the world that by grappling with the idea of the opposite of fragility he was able to define fragility, and point out that the modern world is chock full of it.

It's not the end of the pandemic or even the beginning of the end, but we might be at the end of the beginning, and since I just read three books on the subject I thought I'd see what could be said at this point. Come for the discussion of school closure and why it might have seemed so important in the beginning, stay for an overview of the lab leak hypothesis. But most of all just listen to the episode!

I return to a discussion of Douthat's "Deep Places" in particular what it tells about modern epistemology, or as I like to call it, "reality construction". I examine the reality constructed by Douthat, but also the differences between how we constructed reality during the 1918 pandemic vs. how we construct it now. Come for the history, stay for the murderous story of aspirin.

Why Liberalism Failed by: Patrick J. Deenen Leviathan Falls by: James S. A. Corey Termination Shock by: Neal Stephenson The Histories of Herodotus by: Herodotus  The Golden Transcendence by: John C. Wright The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse by: Charlie MacKesy Doctrine and Covenants

It's that time of year when people make predictions. I also make predictions though I do them somewhat differently. Mostly I'm interested in Identifying potential catastrophes and dismissing potential salvation. For example, nukes will get used again, and a benevolent AI won't save us.  The key thing is not to make accurate predictions, but to make useful predictions. And as it turns out there's a big difference between the two.

I decide to take the end of the year off. But I didn't want to leave my loyal listeners without the normally scheduled episode. So here you go the first ever "We Are Not Saved" Classic!! It's my review and discussion of Neil Postman's classic "Amusing Ourselves to Death". One of the best books of the last 50 years!