In the Company of Mavericks

I recently had another chance to talk to Substack’s No. 1 financial commentator, Doomberg, as he dialled in from his chicken coup in flyover country.  It has been some 15 months since we last spoke, a time when Rishi Sunak was Prime Minister and Joe Biden was President.   Much has happened subsequently in areas of energy policy, energy markets, politics, and global trade and conflict. And I was keen to catch up.  Doomberg utilises his expertise in understanding our fundamental and complex energy requirements and how they impact the broader macro and geopolitical landscape. And, as usual, he does not pull any punches in his well-reasoned views.  We discuss the rise of populism and the long-term outlook for energy supply and demand. In particular, how the additive energy requirements of AI might counterintuitively lead to much lower oil prices. It’s all to do with the unique economics of US shale and AI’s enormous demand for US natural gas. Doomberg also offers a no-holds-barred view of the outlook for post-Ukraine war Europe, including the need for political realignment and an explanation of why sanctions fail.  Whatever you think of his views, it is hard to fault the reasoning of his logic, but of course, none of what you hear is advice of any kind and is only for your information and entertainment. As always, you should take personal financial advice prior to investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets.  And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the green chicken, Doomberg. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Joe Bryan is a former investment bank derivatives trader turned sports betting entrepreneur who, during lockdown, went down the proverbial Bitcoin rabbit hole.   After Joe exited the company that bought his sporting odds business last year, a friend invited him on a weekend away. Each guest had to prepare a short talk to lead a discussion on a topic of their choice. Joe chose Bitcoin; it was his passion and his specialist subject.However, it's a big subject and he didn’t know where to start. So, assuming no prior knowledge, he told a story explaining why Bitcoin exists and what it fixes. He called his presentation, “What’s the Problem?," and Bitcoin was deliberately not mentioned until the last slide.The success of his pitch encouraged him to make a video, and earlier this year, Joe launched What’s The Problem? on YouTube and X. The film tells the story of two identical countries with perfect economies and perfect money, save for the existence of a big red button only for use in case of emergency in the country run by Fiatello. For the avoidance of doubt, the big red button equates to a central bank and today’s monetary policy. In so doing, Joe explains the wide range of common societal problems that stem from fiat money. These include loss of trust, obesity, family breakdowns, addiction, wealth inequality, and, of course, inflation. Joe leads his audience to the door of the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He wants to spread the word because, as he sees it, Bitcoin is inevitable; everyone will find it in their own time, but eventually everyone will get drawn in, and they will own it at their own price. Joe is a Bitcoin Maximalist who points to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as evidence that there is no stopping this train. Of course, he could be wrong, and as always, what you are about to hear is not investment or any other type of advice. It is for your critical evaluation and is only for your information and entertainment. Always do your own research and take professional advice tailored to your own requirements before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.    And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Joe Bryan. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Joe Bryan is a former investment bank derivatives trader turned sports betting entrepreneur who, during lockdown, went down the proverbial Bitcoin rabbit hole.   Having exited from the company that bought his sporting odds business last year, a friend invited Joe on a weekend away. Each guest had to prepare a short talk to lead a discussion on a topic of their choice. Joe chose Bitcoin, it was his passion and his specialist subject.However, it's a big subject and he didn’t know where to start. So, assuming no prior knowledge, he told a story explaining why Bitcoin exists and what it fixes. He called his presentation, “What’s the Problem?," and Bitcoin was deliberately not mentioned until the last slide.The success of his pitch encouraged him to make a video, and earlier this year, Joe launched What’s The Problem? on YouTube and X. The 40-minute film tells the story of two identical countries with perfect economies and perfect money, save for the existence of a big red button only for use in case of emergency in the country run by Fiatello. For the avoidance of doubt, the big red button equates to a central bank and today’s monetary policy. In so doing, Joe explains the wide range of common societal problems that stem from fiat money. These include loss of trust, obesity, family breakdowns, addiction, wealth inequality, and, of course, inflation. Joe leads his audience to the door of the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He wants to spread the word because, as he sees it, Bitcoin is inevitable; everyone will find it in their own time, but eventually everyone will get drawn in, and they will own it at their own price. Joe is a Bitcoin Maximalist who points to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as evidence that there is no stopping this train. Of course, he could be wrong, and as always, what you are about to hear is not investment or any other type of advice. It is for your critical evaluation and is only for your information and entertainment. Always do your own research and take professional advice tailored to your own requirements before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.    And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Joe Bryan. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

During periods of global economic uncertainty and heightened financial market volatility, it is worth considering how investors should think about risk when constructing their portfolios.To this end, I was delighted to have the chance to talk recently to David Dredge at Convex Strategies in Singapore. David not only understands risk, but he also delivers his great insights in a highly entertaining way. He spends his time immersed in understanding sources of risk and developing strategies that mitigate their impact. He does this by embracing convexity, which is buying pockets of cheap volatility as insurance against negative outcomes in conditions of uncertainty.When should investors do this? He says, just like insuring your house, always. He has strong views that contradict the accepted assumptions behind Modern Portfolio Theory, which he calls Sharpe World, which, in his view, falsely equates risk with volatility. David is full of anecdotes and illustrations of the risks investors assume in markets regulated to a Sharpe World and operated by what he calls, Rational Accounting Man.  This episode is probably the most challenging one I have edited. We spoke for nearly two hours, and I could have happily gone on for longer.I thought about making it two episodes, but maybe take a break, if you can draw yourself away and come back to it. I've listened to this one a few times already, and I keep hearing new gems.  As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice. I hope you find it as entertaining and informative as I did, but this should not be used as the basis of an investment decision. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, David Dredge.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

During periods of global economic uncertainty and heightened financial market volatility, it is worth considering how investors should think about risk when constructing their portfolios.To this end, I was delighted to have the chance to talk recently to David Dredge at Convex Strategies in Singapore. David not only understands risk, but he also delivers his great insights in a highly entertaining way. He spends his time immersed in understanding sources of risk and developing strategies that mitigate their impact. He does this by embracing convexity, which is buying pockets of cheap volatility as insurance against negative outcomes in conditions of uncertainty.When should investors do this? He says, just like insuring your house, always. He has strong views that contradict the accepted assumptions behind Modern Portfolio Theory, which he calls Sharpe World, which, in his view, falsely equates risk with volatility. David is full of anecdotes and illustrations of the risks investors assume in markets regulated to a Sharpe World and operated by what he calls, Rational Accounting Man.  This episode is probably the most challenging one I have edited. We spoke for nearly two hours, and I could have happily gone on for longer.I thought about making it two episodes, but maybe take a break, if you can draw yourself away and come back to it. I've listened to this one a few times already, and I keep hearing new gems.  As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice. I hope you find it as entertaining and informative as I did, but this should not be used as the basis of an investment decision. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. Please make sure you are subscribed to enjoy my conversation with the maverick, David Dredge.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

Lawrence Lam, the founder of the Lumenary Global Founders Fund, is passionate about investing in founder-led companies that prioritize long-term success. He discusses the unique risk-taking and innovative qualities these businesses possess. The conversation explores how to identify the 'founder effect' and the importance of decision-making agency, using Netflix as a case study. Additionally, Lam shares insights on navigating corporate strategy and the significance of embracing small mistakes to foster growth. His book delves into these themes, making it essential for understanding effective management.

I have always been interested in founder-led companies. Entrepreneurs and family-run companies often have unconventional attitudes to risk and return. They often back themselves to take operational risk. They tend to be more innovative. You could say that they are more prone to being maverick. But also, you could say that they are more cautious and mindful of capital preservation and the value of staying in the game for the benefit of future generations.  Investing to capture the founder-led effect is a way to achieve an asymmetric return, with better downside protection in tough times and higher upside returns in good times. Sounds great in theory, but how do you go about it in practice?    In this episode, I chat with a Chinese Australian who invests globally in founder-led companies.  Lawrence Lam has run the Lumenary Global Founders Fund since 2017. As the name suggests, his process attempts to identify companies that are run for the long term and have the founder effect. So, what is the founder effect, and how can investors determine whether a management team has this elusive characteristic?  Well, Lawrence has helpfully written a book called "The Founder Effect - The Three Pillars of Success in Founder-Led Companies." It’s a great read if you are trying to understand good long-term management decisions and how to spot them. This is a fascinating conversation with someone who loves what he does and scours the world’s stock markets to find his secret formula at work.  We learn how he balances the less correlated world for opportunities to buy founder-led companies that offer good value, why China offers a great way to diversify a portfolio, how BYD is poised to become the next Toyota, and how meeting management might useful for understanding if the company is likely to do well next quarter, but not so useful for understanding whether it will compound for you over the next couple of decades.  As Lawrence says, he looks for the long-term track record of key decision-making, simple organisational structure, skin in the game, and close alignment with shareholders. As always, none of what you are about to hear is financial or any other type of advice. It is hopefully entertaining and informative, but what you hear should not be used as the basis for an investment decision. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. And with that …   Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick Lawrence Lam.         Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Sean Peche, manager of The Ranmore Global Equity Fund, brings a wealth of experience to the discussion, having honed his skills at Orbis. He unveils the shifting tides of global capital, emphasizing a notable pivot away from US assets. Sean shares insights on why he’s prioritized the UK market and likens emerging markets to developed ones. His unique approach to evaluating companies—favoring performance over management chatter—offers a fresh perspective on value investing. Expect a master class in navigating today's market dynamics!

Things are changing in global markets. There are noticeable shifts taking place. The world’s capital is rotating. As always, many factors are at work, but we might be witnessing a once-in-a-generation shift away from US assets, which have recently dominated global capital allocations. Global investors are diversifying their portfolios. That is why I was keen to host this episode today.David Seaman of Alpha Cygni Asset Management and a seasoned emerging markets investor joins me for a fascinating discussion with Sean Peche, the manager of The Ranmore Global Equity Fund. Sean recounts how he honed his value investing credentials at Orbis after qualifying as an accountant in South Africa and before launching Ranmore in London in 2008.  Sean has a first-hand take on how capital flows have shaped equity values and built up today’s imbalances. While relative value is not sufficient reason for capital to flow, it is a necessary pre-condition. Sean says there are now multiple reasons investors, typically fully loaded in the US market, want to recycle their capital.  He talks about how he looks for value, why he has recently moved overweight in the UK, why emerging markets have many developed market characteristics, and why he doesn’t meet the management of the companies he invests in. As he says, he can best objectively determine the effectiveness of management by watching what they do, not necessarily by listening to what they say. Sean delivers a master class on the principles of value investing combined with an acute sense of how the world is changing and how best to load up on asymmetric risk opportunities that will likely operate in his favour as we confront an unforecastable future. Now, please enjoy our conversation with the maverick, Sean Peche .. Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

During the pandemic, an Argentinian economist called Javier Milei began to make a name for himself on TV panel shows for his wild libertarian ideas and idiosyncratic, abrasive delivery. Milei raged against politicians of all persuasions, always prepared to outrage his opponents and entertain his audiences.By 2021, he had become a congressman, denouncing the political class as useless parasites who had never worked and thought only of self-enrichment. He assured his electorate that he would kick these criminals out. He didn't seek to lead lambs, he told them, but to awaken lions, and the lions he awoke were younger people attracted to his unique combination of in-depth economic knowledge and flamboyant shock-jock delivery.While other politicians and the mainstream media depicted him as a performative clown, Milei had taught economics for twenty years and published over fifty academic papers. Unlike most academics, Milei was a showman, playing drums for a Rolling Stones cover band. He was an evangelist who sold out increasingly large venues, lecturing his audiences about the workings of the price mechanism, the moral justification for capitalism, and the crime of collectivism while raising a sense of moral outrage.The coincidence of Argentina's economic cycle of despair with Milei's arrival as a chainsaw-wielding showman, backed up by the deep conviction that he knew the solution to his country's woes, unexpectedly led him to the highest office in the land in less than a year. Last December, he became Argentina's 59th president. He won the largest number of votes and the largest percentage of votes recorded in any election since the transition to democracy, but it came with only a minority position in the legislature.This left him with an enormous challenge in executing his reforms, but despite this, his first year in office has been largely successful. Unanswered are the questions as to whether Milei's remedies will prove sustainable, whether this time will differ from all the other times, and whether he can end Argentina's era of missed opportunities. Can he continue painful reforms while remaining sufficiently popular to complete the project?I spent a few days in Buenos Aries in early November to learn more about this man and the libertarian experiment he was implementing. I met several people there, including Robert Marstrand, an author and investor who writes the investment stack OfWealth. Robert has a background in investment banking and has lived in Argentina for 16 years. He was very generous with his time and explained the opportunity for Argentina and how investors might like to think about this Maverick nation with its maverick president.  Please enjoy our conversation about Argentina and its maverick president.