In the Company of Mavericks

Things are changing in global markets. There are noticeable shifts taking place. The world’s capital is rotating. As always, many factors are at work, but we might be witnessing a once-in-a-generation shift away from US assets, which have recently dominated global capital allocations. Global investors are diversifying their portfolios. That is why I was keen to host this episode today.David Seaman of Alpha Cygni Asset Management and a seasoned emerging markets investor joins me for a fascinating discussion with Sean Peche, the manager of The Ranmore Global Equity Fund. Sean recounts how he honed his value investing credentials at Orbis after qualifying as an accountant in South Africa and before launching Ranmore in London in 2008.  Sean has a first-hand take on how capital flows have shaped equity values and built up today’s imbalances. While relative value is not sufficient reason for capital to flow, it is a necessary pre-condition. Sean says there are now multiple reasons investors, typically fully loaded in the US market, want to recycle their capital.  He talks about how he looks for value, why he has recently moved overweight in the UK, why emerging markets have many developed market characteristics, and why he doesn’t meet the management of the companies he invests in. As he says, he can best objectively determine the effectiveness of management by watching what they do, not necessarily by listening to what they say. Sean delivers a master class on the principles of value investing combined with an acute sense of how the world is changing and how best to load up on asymmetric risk opportunities that will likely operate in his favour as we confront an unforecastable future. Now, please enjoy our conversation with the maverick, Sean Peche .. Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

During the pandemic, an Argentinian economist called Javier Milei began to make a name for himself on TV panel shows for his wild libertarian ideas and idiosyncratic, abrasive delivery. Milei raged against politicians of all persuasions, always prepared to outrage his opponents and entertain his audiences.By 2021, he had become a congressman, denouncing the political class as useless parasites who had never worked and thought only of self-enrichment. He assured his electorate that he would kick these criminals out. He didn't seek to lead lambs, he told them, but to awaken lions, and the lions he awoke were younger people attracted to his unique combination of in-depth economic knowledge and flamboyant shock-jock delivery.While other politicians and the mainstream media depicted him as a performative clown, Milei had taught economics for twenty years and published over fifty academic papers. Unlike most academics, Milei was a showman, playing drums for a Rolling Stones cover band. He was an evangelist who sold out increasingly large venues, lecturing his audiences about the workings of the price mechanism, the moral justification for capitalism, and the crime of collectivism while raising a sense of moral outrage.The coincidence of Argentina's economic cycle of despair with Milei's arrival as a chainsaw-wielding showman, backed up by the deep conviction that he knew the solution to his country's woes, unexpectedly led him to the highest office in the land in less than a year. Last December, he became Argentina's 59th president. He won the largest number of votes and the largest percentage of votes recorded in any election since the transition to democracy, but it came with only a minority position in the legislature.This left him with an enormous challenge in executing his reforms, but despite this, his first year in office has been largely successful. Unanswered are the questions as to whether Milei's remedies will prove sustainable, whether this time will differ from all the other times, and whether he can end Argentina's era of missed opportunities. Can he continue painful reforms while remaining sufficiently popular to complete the project?I spent a few days in Buenos Aries in early November to learn more about this man and the libertarian experiment he was implementing. I met several people there, including Robert Marstrand, an author and investor who writes the investment stack OfWealth. Robert has a background in investment banking and has lived in Argentina for 16 years. He was very generous with his time and explained the opportunity for Argentina and how investors might like to think about this Maverick nation with its maverick president.  Please enjoy our conversation about Argentina and its maverick president. 

Have you ever wondered how fund managers deliver a successful long-short strategy? David Seaman of Alpha Cygni Investment Management recently joined me for a conversation with Richard Stuckey, the manager of the Ennismore Global Equity Fund, about managing such a strategy in smaller global companies.  In this fascinating chat, Richard discusses different approaches to shorting equities and how they involve different approaches to risk management at the stock and portfolio levels. He outlines a couple of examples of stocks he and his team have successfully shorted that turned out to be deceptions. We then discuss two long positions he recently added to his portfolio. Genus, a UK–listed animal genetics company, Genus and Paradox Interactive, a Scandinavian-listed games publisherRichard then discusses the geographic spread of his fund and how to think about market inefficiency driven by the rise of the mega-cap tech stocks, passive investment and meme-driven markets.And… importantly, how to adapt investment strategy in a market that can remain inefficient for a long time. This is a masterclass in the often counterintuitive art of managing an absolute return strategy in a volatile and illiquid asset class. While not for everyone, it can offer downside protection in choppy markets while providing long-term exposure to quality compounding equities.I must remind you that this is only for information purposes and is NOT investment advice. The views expressed in the podcast are personal to the contributors and do not represent Progressive Equity's views. Please enjoy our conversation with Richard Stuckey.Made possible by Progressive Equity.      

Mark Blandford, online betting pioneer and founder of Sporting Bet, shares his journey from traditional bookmaking to navigating the online gambling landscape. He discusses the challenges of evolving regulations and how they create risks for entrepreneurs. Joining him is George O’Connor, a technology analyst, who delves into investment strategies and the importance of adaptability in business. Together, they explore the impact of AI on investment models and the future of payment solutions, offering insights into making informed decisions in a rapidly changing market.

Dominic Frisby is an author, comedian, singer-songwriter, voice-over artist, self-taught financial commentator and the creator of the popular Substack, The Flying Frisby.  The main pillar of Dominic’s investment philosophy is based on gold and Bitcoin, and he has written extensively about both.  He was an early adopter of real asset protection, writing a book on the role of Bitcoin ten years ago.  I wanted to get his view on the role of real assets in investment portfolios and how investors might like to consider protecting their capital from fiat currency debasement.   Dominic didn’t disappoint and added plenty of thoughts on politics, the prospects for liberty and some valuable health tips for the over 50s. Have you tried hanging from a high bar? It works for me.  Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Dominic Frisby.Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Dominic Frisby is an author, comedian, singer-songwriter, voice-over artist, self-taught financial commentator and the creator of the popular Substack, The Flying Frisby.  The main pillar of Dominic’s investment philosophy is based on gold and Bitcoin, and he has written extensively about both.  He was an early adopter of real asset protection, writing a book on the role of Bitcoin ten years ago.  I wanted to get his view on the role of real assets in investment portfolios and how investors might like to consider protecting their capital from fiat currency debasement.   Dominic didn’t disappoint and added plenty of thoughts on politics, the prospects for liberty and some valuable health tips for the over 50s. Have you tried hanging from a high bar? It works for me.  Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Dominic Frisby. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Have you ever wondered what investing in Emerging Markets is all about? It’s complicated, right? And having witnessed a decade or more of US dollar dominance and outperforming developed markets, particularly US markets, why bother looking at the rest of the world? After all, isn’t that where all the bad stuff happens, like currency crises and debt defaults? Recently, there have been signs that Emerging Markets might be re-emerging. This year, there have been signs that the dollar’s dominance may not be so dominant. Following the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, China announced an intention to add significant heft to its policy of loosening monetary and fiscal conditions in the world’s second-largest economy.   Following an extended period of being considered uninvestable, Chinese equities had a near 30% bounce in a couple of weeks. Was this just some hasty short closing or a re-awakening of the biggest emerging markets? This is currently one of the fiercest debates among global investors.I wanted to get the perspective of an emerging markets expert, so I was delighted to have the chance to speak with Leila Kardouche of Variis Partners. Leila is a veteran of the space, and she and her small team recently launched a new London-based emerging markets partnership. This partnership fills a space left by several high-profile investors who have recently left this area due to its long period of disappointing returns. In this episode, we learn about the structure of Emerging Markets and how benchmark indices such as the MSCI are not very helpful in uncovering the full potential of the growth opportunities often obscured within these markets. Among other things, Leila discusses how to evaluate political risk in this widely diverse range of markets as we tour what’s hot and what’s not in an investment universe covering 85% of the world’s population.  Critically, Leila and the Variis team focus on stock selection. Leila discusses how the challenges of growing businesses in emerging markets have produced some very successful compounding growth opportunities. Yes, these companies have outperformed strongly even within markets like China, which has been disappointing overall.For my recent Substack covering emerging markets, please see, Are Emerging Markets Re-emerging?  Be sure you are subscribed to In The Company of Mavericks on your podcast app to avoid missing the next and future episodes. Made possible by Progressive Equity.  

Have you ever wondered what investing in Emerging Markets is all about? It’s complicated, right? And having witnessed a decade or more of US dollar dominance and outperforming developed markets, particularly US markets, why bother looking at the rest of the world? After all, isn’t that where all the bad stuff happens, like currency crises and debt defaults? Recently, there have been signs that Emerging Markets might be re-emerging. This year, there have been signs that the dollar’s dominance may not be quite so dominant. Following the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, China announced an intention to add significant heft to its policy of loosening monetary and fiscal conditions in the world’s second-largest economy.   Following an extended period of being considered uninvestable, Chinese equities had a near 30% bounce in a couple of weeks. Was this just some hasty short closing or a re-awakening of the biggest emerging markets? This is currently one of the fiercest debates among global investors.I wanted to get the perspective of an emerging markets expert, so I was delighted to have the chance to speak with Leila Kardouche of Variis Partners. Leila is a veteran of the space, and she and her small team recently launched a new London-based emerging markets partnership, filling a space left by several high-profile investors who have recently left this area due to its long period of disappointing returns. In this episode, we learn about the structure of Emerging Markets and how benchmark indices such as the MSCI are not very helpful in uncovering the full potential of the growth opportunities often obscured within these markets. Among other things, Leila discusses how to evaluate political risk in this widely diverse range of markets as we take a tour of what’s hot and what’s not in an investment universe covering 85% of the world’s population.  Critically, Leila and the Variis team focus on stock selection. Leila discusses how the challenges of growing businesses in emerging markets have produced some very successful compounding growth opportunities. Yes, these companies have outperformed strongly even within markets like China, which has been disappointing overall.Be sure you are subscribed to In The Company of Mavericks on your podcast app to avoid missing the next and future episodes.  Made possible by Progressive Equity.  

A few months ago, I chatted with Adam Rackley, the SVS Dowgate Cape Wrath Focus Fund manager featured in Episode 39, Market Capitulations & Narrative Shifts. We were reading a great new Substack called Sweet Stocks, which featured weekly in-depth write-ups of some fascinating quality compounding growth stocks. Not only were we impressed with Sweet Stocks’ quality, but the weekly publication cadence also meant it was the work of a highly experienced and disciplined analyst.   A few weeks later, we chatted with Alex Sweet, the man behind the Substack, about what motivates his work, his investment philosophy, his analytical rigour, and, crucially, some of his UK stock ideas. Alex didn’t disappoint. He gave a masterclass on investing in quality compounding companies capable of “beating the fade” and on how he uses his fundamental analytical approach to find these anomalous gems globally. This episode teaches how Adam and Alex use similar, in-depth fundamental frameworks to derive different strategies. Adam focuses on contrarian deep value, while Alex focuses on growth at a reasonable price.These two investors illustrate the type of discipline involved in professional investment analysis. They also share an interest in the crazy world of Ultrarunning. Alex talks about his newfound passion for the Backyard Ultra, an offshoot of the Barkley Marathons, an event he hopes to run 300 miles in three days later this year.The stocks we cover in this episode are 4imprint, YouGov and Loungers. I must just tell you that the people on this podcast might own shares in the companies mentioned, but nothing you are about to hear is investment advice. The opinions expressed are purely the contributors' personal views and do not represent the views of Progressive Equity or any other organisation mentioned in this podcast. I hope you find this content informative and entertaining. I learned a lot, but please take professional financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets.I also wrote a Substack article about this podcast at HyperNormalTimes. Made possible by Progressive Equity.

Adam Rackley joins me for a conversation with growth stock analyst and ultra runner Alex Sweet of Sweet Stocks. Alex discusses his background and investment philosophy, and we chat about three UK equities he has covered in his newsletters: 4imprint, YouGov & Loungers. COMING SOON on all good podcast apps. Made possible by Progressive Equity