The Human Risk Podcast

What do Magic and Alchemy have to do with human decision-making?This episode — the 200th! — is the second part of a discussion with Paul Craven and Rory Sutherland. If you missed the first episode, I recommend starting with that, as some topics flow across both halves. You'll find it here:https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/rory-sutherland-paul-craven-on-alchemy-magic/Paul began his career in Finance with over 30 years working for Schroders, PIMCO and Goldman Sachs and now works in Behavioural Science. Rory is the author of Alchemy: The Surprising Power of Ideas That Don't Make Sense and the Vice Chairman of Ogilvy. Links that are relevant to the show:Paul Craven - https://www.paulcraven.com/Rory Sutherland - https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysutherland/?Rory's book Alchemy - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/430379/alchemy-by-rory-sutherland/9780753556528The Walton Ten Foot Rule - https://www.walmartmuseum.com/content/walmartmuseum/en_us/timeline/decades/1980/artifact/2648.html#:~:text=The%2010%2Dfoot%20Rule%20is,if%20I%20can%20help%20them.%E2%80%9DDeirdre McCloskey on 'Sweet Talk' - https://www.deirdremccloskey.com/docs/humanomics.pdfAn interview with Kumal Gahotra of Ford where he talks about the emotions involved in customer's car purchasing decisions: https://s23.q4cdn.com/799033206/files/doc_events/archive/Ford-2019-JPM-Auto-Conference-Transcript.pdfAn article on FAB - Features, Advantages & Benefits - https://www.scottyschindler.com/selling-with-fab-features-advantages-and-benefits/The David Ogilvy advertisement for Rolls Royce that references the noise the clock makes: https://swiped.co/file/rolls-royce-ad-by-david-ogilvy/The Chanson de Roland - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Song_of_RolandJean-Paul Sartre - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Paul_SartreThe Theatre of the Absurd - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theatre_of_the_absurd

Franz Kafka - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KafkaTristan Harris' article on how technology is hijacking our minds - https://medium.com/thrive-global/how-technology-hijacks-peoples-minds-from-a-magician-and-google-s-design-ethicist-56d62ef5edf3Morgan Housel's book The Psychology of Money - https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Psychology_of_Money/5HrrDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0A video demonstrating Tesla's Dog Mode - https://youtu.be/T2rbdMlmpYYJoshua Jay 'How Magicians Think' - https://www.vanishingincmagic.com/magic-books/how-magicians-think/Scott McCloud's book 'Understanding Comics' - https://scottmccloud.com/2-print/1-uc/index.html To hear previous episodes of the show featuring:Paul - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/paul-craven-on-magic-money/Rory - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/rory-sutherland-on-compliance/Rory & Gerald Ashley Part One - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/rory-sutherland-gerald-ashley/Rory & Gerald Ashley Part Two - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/gerald-ashley-rory-sutherland/Paul & Gerald Ashley Part One - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/gerald-ashley-paul-craven/Paul & Gerald Ashley Part Two - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/paul-craven-gerald-ashley/

What do Alchemy and Magic have to do with human decision-making? 

On this episode, I’m joined by two Behavioural Science gurus who have both been on the show before: Rory Sutherland and Paul Craven. Rory is the author of Alchemy: The Surprising Power of Ideas That Don't Make Sense. Paul Craven is a magician and member of the prestigious Magic Circle. So that’s both bases covered!Rory is also the Vice Chairman of Ogilvy, and Paul began his career in Finance with over 30 years working for Schroders, PIMCO and Goldman Sachs. Both are Behavioural Science thought leaders.Since the show is approaching its 200th episode — this is the 199th — I thought I ought to celebrate it. So I did what we always do when we celebrate special occasions and decided to replicate the winning formula I used last time. On that occasion, I was joined by Rory Sutherland and Gerald Ashley. Since then, I’ve also recorded a doubleheader with Gerald and his and Rory’s good friend Paul Craven. Like Rory and Gerald, Paul has also done a solo appearance on the show.

So for two episodes, I’m joined by Rory Sutherland and Paul Craven. 
In our discussion — and I’m just talking about this episode here — we talk about framing, ethics, Sludge, electric cars, the best joke at this year’s Edinburgh festival — warning, it’s an adult joke — the Pratfall Effect, or why making mistakes can make us seem more human, ho one man saved the world from a nuclear war, the Beatles, how we look at data and so much more. Links to all of those are below.

Paul Craven - https://www.paulcraven.com/

Rory Sutherland - https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysutherland/?

Rory’s book Alchemy - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/430379/alchemy-by-rory-sutherland/9780753556528

Economist Nicholas Gruen - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Gruen

French magician Jean-Eugène Robert-Houdin - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Eug%C3%A8ne_Robert-Houdin

Former guest Gerald Ashley referring to Paul as a conman - https://twitter.com/HumanRiskLtd/status/1395316840105234432?s=20&t=7v2vbVi0FoiyzozKY9soug

Marks & Spencer’s ‘Dine In For Two’ Deal - https://www.marksandspencer.com/c/food-to-order/dine-in

Edward De Bono - https://www.debono.com/

Germany’s ’two click to unsubscribe’ law - https://www.thelocal.de/20220303/how-germany-is-making-is-easier-for-consumers-to-cancel-contracts/

Sludge - https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerdooley/2021/09/29/you-cant-nudge-if-youve-got-sludge/

[Warning: the most controversial show note ever. Contains adult content. Spanish Comedian Ignacio Lopez on Dogging. Here’s what the term means: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogging_(sexual_slang)].

Here’s the joke: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=246981890669484

The BBC series My Life As A Rolling Stone - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0018zwpTo hear previous episodes of the show featuring:Paul - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/paul-craven-on-magic-money/Rory - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/rory-sutherland-on-compliance/Rory & Gerald Ashley Part One - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/rory-sutherland-gerald-ashley/Rory & Gerald Ashley Part Two - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/gerald-ashley-rory-sutherland/Paul & Gerald Ashley Part One - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/gerald-ashley-paul-craven/Paul & Gerald Ashley Part Two - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/paul-craven-gerald-ashley/

What role does Trust play in Compliance? What is Voluntary Compliance and how effective is it?This episode sees the return of the very first guest I ever had on the podcast, Professor Yuval Feldman of Bar-Ilan University in Israel. I asked Yuval to help me launch the show because his book “The Law Of Good People’ was a major influence on my human risk work. So, as we approach the 200th episode of the show, I wanted to get him back to say thank you for all that he’s inspired and because I know that COVID has provided him with some amazing opportunities to further his research. Not only has he been helping the Israeli government to manage its response to the pandemic, but he’s also been able to find ways to use live under COVID as a large-scale field experiment.In the show, we talk about the lessons Yuval has learned from his work during COVID, and his new book on Public Trust. He also shares his insights into his own experiences of compliance. We also discuss the project for which he was recently awarded European Research Council Grant on the subject of "Generating Voluntary Compliance Across Doctrines and Nations: Integrating the Behavioural and Regulatory Aspects of Governments’ Ability to Trust the Public’s Cooperation, Ethicality and Compliance"Links to issues we discuss:Yuval’s first appearance on the show - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/professor-yuval-feldman-on-why/His book ‘The Law of Good People’ - https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/law-of-good-people/DEB07C540F75D5D3B0A53B2499722F70His faculty webpage - https://law.biu.ac.il/en/feldmanProfessor Katy Milkman of Wharton - https://www.katymilkman.com/Responsive Regulation by Ian Ayres & John Braithwaite - http://johnbraithwaite.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Responsive-Regulation-Transce.pdfPersonalised Law by Omri Ben-Shahar & Ariel Porat - https://global.oup.com/academic/product/personalized-law-9780197522813?The blog by writer Ian Leslie that explores why Diversity & Inclusion teams should include people that don’t agree with D&I - https://ianleslie.substack.com/p/down-with-pronouns?You can hear Ian’s appearance on this show here - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/ian-leslie-on-conflict-/The research project Yuval did with Maryam Kouchaki and Francesca Gino about how the choice of language in a code of conduct impacts people’s responses to it- https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=56179Details of his European Research Grant - https://www.biu.ac.il/en/article/11123

As employers adjust to a post-pandemic world, how can they design working practices that minimise human risk and maximise human reward? My guest, Phil Libin, is an experienced CEO with some fascinating insights to share on what he calls ‘The Out Of Office World’. He’s the former CEO of Evernote and the co-founder and CEO of All Turtles, a product studio that solves what they describe as meaningful problems. I first came across All Turtles when looking for a solution to make video presentations more engaging. In 2020, they launched a product called mmhmm which, in their words — and I’d agree — gives you ‘communication superpowers’. I’ve been using it ever since. While our discussion begins with mmhmm, it’s the story of what the software inspired that I find really interesting. Because when All Turtles began using it internally, they also discovered a more effective way of working. What mmhmm inspired was the recognition that the perception we all have of video as a poor substitute for ‘in person’ meetings is wrong. There are certain activities that can be improved by the use of video — particularly asynchronous video — and recognising that ‘face to face’ time is so valuable means changing how we use that time. As Phil points out, he’s not created a blueprint for how all companies should think about working; it’s what works for them. But the ideas behind it are something that can inspire all companies. To find out more about All Turtles, visit — https://www.all-turtles.com/For mmhmm, the app that gives you ‘communication superpowers’ - https://www.mmhmm.app/home
The demo that I did of how I use mmhmm is here: https://www.mmhmm.app/blog/christian-hunt-compliance-expertAll Turtles also produces some fascinating videos and podcasts on the Out of Office World. Here’s a video that explains the philosophical underpinnings of their approach - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBKIMhGO8WA
I also recommend watching the mmhmm ‘Degrees of Freedom’ video podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHL6dBk6wAE

How did Behavioural Economics — or as I prefer to call it, Behavioural Science — evolve as a field? On this episode, I’m exploring that question with Professor Viswanathan Raghunathan, an academic who was previously the chairman of a large private bank.Raghu,as he likes to be known. is the author of a new book called ‘Irrationally Rational: Ten Nobel Laureates script the story of Behavioural Economics’ which (unsurprisingly!) looks at the development of Behavioural Economics,through the work of ten Nobel laureates.In an engaging narrative Raghu explores what each of them brought to the field and how their work is relevant in the modern world. In our discussion we explore:- Raghu’s interest in Behavioural Economics- How he came to write the book- The rationale for choosing the lens of Nobel laureates to review the field- How he went about selecting stories and anecdotes that would make the work of the Laureates relevant to a 2022 audience- The growth of Behavioural Science in India and what we can learn from that- The challenges of implementing BeSci in India- His plans for the futureTo find out more about Raghu visit his website: http://www.vraghunathan.com/To order the book..
In the UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Irrationally-Rational-Laureates-Behavioural-Economics/dp/0143458167/In the US: https://www.amazon.com/Irrationally-Rational-Laureates-Behavioural-Economics-ebook/dp/B09X78MC2RIn India: https://www.amazon.in/Irrationally-Rational-Laureates-Behavioural-Economics-ebook/dp/B09X78MC2RIn Canada: https://www.amazon.ca/Irrationally-Rational-Laureates-Behavioural-Economics/dp/0143458167/ref=sr_1_1?crid=IML86ONWEUHT&keywords=9780143458166&qid=1658726318&sprefix=9780143458166%2Caps%2C545&sr=8-1To learn more about Human Risk visit www.human-risk.comFor more on the Diversifi Behavioural Science network of which Human Risk is a founder member: https://www.diversifiglobal.com/

How can Behavioural Science help us better manage our financial affairs? Why should we still invest in oil companies if we believe in green energy? What does how we taste wine tell us about human decision-making?All of these questions, and a lot more, are answered on this episode of the Human Risk podcast, where I’m joined by my guest Behavioural Finance expert Dr Greg Davies.Greg has been on the show before. You’ll find that episode which he recorded together with Stuart Tootal, here: https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/stuart-tootal-greg-davies/He works for Oxford Risk, a fintech that, in their words, ‘empowers financial institutions to provide hyper-personalised advice to their clients, for today and for a lifetime of financial decisions’. In our discussion, we explore three topics: 1. The challenges of making sound financial decisions and how an understanding of Behavioural Science can deliver better outcomes. Because, as Great explains, we’re not naturally good at making the best financial decisions for the longer term. Greg also shares some fascinating insights about how a combination of machines making diagnoses and humans prescribing solutions can lead to optimal outcomes. 2. Sustainability - Greg explains why counter-intuitively, we should continue to invest in fossil-fuel businesses and why promoting sustainable investments solely based on the returns they generate is missing an opportunity. 3. Finally, we talk about Behavioural Winetasting and why the way in which we taste wine can help us to understand flaws in human decision-making.It’s an eclectic mix, but as you’ll hear, they’ve all got one thing in common — they’re things Greg can talk insightfully and passionately about. To find out more about: - Greg, see his LinkedIn and Twitter profiles: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregbdavies/ and https://twitter.com/GregBDavies - Oxford Risk see their website: https://www.oxfordrisk.com/ - Behavioural Winetasting: https://www.johndownes.com/behavioral-wine-tastingDuring our discussion, we also refer to other episodes of the podcast: - Professor Olivier Sibony on ’Noise’ - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/professor-olivier-sibony-on-noise/ - Nicole Ludvik-Smith on ’Skydiving & Stunts’ - https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/nicole-smith-ludvik-on-skydiving-stunts/

How can we make sense of what we're told about risk? We're bombarded with messages on subjects ranging from COVID to the economy from people that range from genuine experts to those with no expertise but strong opinions. On this episode, I'm speaking to Professor David Spiegelhalter.David is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication within the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics at Cambridge University. The Centre is dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society. Listeners in the UK will almost certainly have seen or heard David. Since the start of the pandemic he’s been a regular fixture on TV and radio, helping to make sense of the things we're being told about the virus. In a world of self-appointed experts whose only qualification is from the University of YouTube and untrustworthy politicians telling us they’re "following the science", he’s been a voice of clarity and common sense. In our discussion, we explore what drives David’s interest in statistics, why we like to see connections between things that might not actually be there, why the mantra of “following the science” is nonsensical and whether there is such a thing as coincidence. David also provides plenty of practical tips for communicating and interpreting messages about risk. As you might expect for someone who specialises in risk communication, David is really good at getting his message across in ways we can all understand. My huge thanks to long-time friend of the show Roger Miles, who helped to make this conversation possible.To find out more about David, visit his academic website: https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/about/people/professor-sir-david-spiegelhalter/or his personal website: https://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/You'll find his books in all good bookstores. For more information, visit:The Art of Statistics — https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/294857/the-art-of-statistics-by-spiegelhalter-david/9780241258767COVID by Numbers — https://www.penguin.co.uk/authors/126755/david-spiegelhalterFor video content, I recommend:Communicating statistics in the time of COVID — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW9plVfanjoFalse Positives — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmiEzi54lBIBe Prepared To Show Your Working — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E12_F4xeOHwIn our discussion, we also refer to the episode featuring Tim Harford on using Data to Make Smarter Decisions. You can hear that here: https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/tim-harford-on-using-data/

How can we make work suck less? That’s what my guest Carina Maggar explores in her new book. She’s a creative copywriter who has worked with a number of leading brands including Pepsi, Levis, YouTube and Nintendo. As a student, Carina did a variety of jobs and while doing them she paid close attention to all the things she found interesting — things that stood out for some reason or another — and took notes. Those notes and some interviews she did with some other creative thought leaders form the basis for her new book How To Make Work Not Suck: Honest Advice for People With Jobs. It’s a collection of 120 irreverent, unusual, straight-talking insights about the world of work.
I really enjoyed reading her book and thought her insights, though incredibly simple, were really insightful, so I wanted to get her on the show.
In our discussion, we explore:- What a copywriter does and how that’s relevant to Carina’s book;- What inspired her to write the book;- The process she went through in designing and writing the book;- How her insights about work have shaped Carina’s thinking;- The pieces of advice in her book particularly inspired me; and- Her thoughts on careers and why conventional wisdom might not always apply.To find out more about Carina visit www.carinamaggar.com To see some sample pages of her book visit https://www.carinamaggar.com/howtomakeworknotsuck

How can companies manage the risks posed by the stress their senior leaders face? That’s what Says Life, the company founded by my guest on this episode, Jennifer Thamm, is looking to solve. Says Life helps companies mitigate Human Risk at a leadership level by providing senior executives with a service that allows them to manage stress in their lives; whether at work or home.Says Life works with the senior leader to help them identify where stress might arise and arrange appropriate support for them and their families, whether or not it's directly work-related. They also provide the employer with anonymised, aggregated data on the human risks facing their leadership, so the company can look to address the aspects it can control.This fascinates me from a Human Risk perspective because it addresses two key areas:- The fact that people in senior positions have a lot of industry experience doesn’t mean they don’t need psychological support to do their role. In fact, they might need more of it.- What influences human decision-making inside work can be heavily influenced by what is happening outside of it.Historically these things have been difficult for companies to explore. Both because the data wasn’t available, but equally because of understandable privacy concerns on the part of employees who might want to keep their private lives private. 
In our discussion, Jennifer explains the logic behind the Says Life business model, and we explore how she is thinking about mitigating human risk for senior leaders.To find out more about Jennifer and Says Life:https://www.sayslife.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/jenniferthamm/

What happens when a journalist investigates one of the biggest scams in history? My guest on this episode, Jamie Bartlett is the author of ‘The Missing Cryptoqueen’, which tells the tale of his multi-year investigation into the disappearance of Dr Ruja Ignatova.Dr Ruja is the founder of OneCoin, a cryptocurrency that sold itself as an alternative to Bitcoin but was instead a pyramid-style scam which relieved people from 175 countries of at least £4 billion.The Missing Cryptoqueen is also the title of a BBC podcast that Jamie presents which explores the astonishing story behind OneCoin. In our conversation, Jamie explains how the One Coin scam worked, how he came across the story and what happened when he began to investigate it. We begin our conversation by exploring Jamie’s early research into the Dark Net and how technology impacts our decision-making. He explains to my why, in many respects, algorithms prompt a reaction in us that is not dissimilar to religion.In that discussion, we talk about the English Defence League. More on them here: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/understanding-the-english-defence-league-life-on-the-front-line-of-an-imagined-clash-of-civilisations/To hear the BBC podcast on The Missing Crypto Queen - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p07nkd84To learn more about Jamie’s book - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/112/1120307/the-missing-cryptoqueen/9780753559581.html