MNI FedSpeak Podcasts

Former Ontario forecasting manager and Oxford Economics Canada analyst Tony Stillo says prior cuts to neutral and concern about tariff inflation will keep the Bank of Canada on hold.

Seth Carpenter, former deputy director the Fed board's division of monetary affairs, thinks the central bank will barely be able to squeeze in another rate cut this year if at all before tariffs boost inflation for a while, leaving policymakers on hold until well into 2026.

Nobel Laureate and MIT economist Simon Johnson said he's worried about the growth- and institution-damaging actions of the Trump administration, but relieved he seems willing to leave monetary policy to the Federal Reserve. 

The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates on hold through much of this year as it seeks clarity on the economic impact of Donald Trump's policies.

The more the central bankers stress uncertainty of the of the outlook the more likely they are to enact easier monetary policy, Bank of France senior economist Klodiana Istrefi told MNI.In her paper 'Interest rate uncertainty and firm decisions' Istrefi and co-authors defined "interest rate uncertainty" as the difference between predictions made in surveys by professional forecasters and actual outcomes.

SEC Economist Samim Ghamami says the neutral rate of interest has risen because of higher U.S. budget deficits, meaning the Fed is likely to cut rates less than otherwise in this cycle.

Investor Ed Devlin says Canada's weak economy needs a quick end to tight monetary policy, and a weaker dollar is no deterrent to central bank officials.

Former Fed board economist Joseph Gagnon thinks President-Elect Donald Trump's tariff and immigration policies will push up inflation again, forcing the Fed to halt rate cuts.

The inflation expectations of eurozone consumers are surprisingly in line with macroeconomic developments and can provide a useful reality check to professional forecasts, European Central Bank economist Omiros Kouvavas told MNI.“Consumer expectations feed into consumers’ actions,” Kouvavas told an MNI podcast, adding that he expected them to continue to track the macroeconomic situation with a lag.The link to the ECB's Article: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202407.en.html#toc19