MNI FedSpeak Podcasts

The Federal Reserve needs to be extra careful about cutting interest rates in the current environment because inflation expectations are threatened not just by tariffs but also a perceived loss of central bank independence, says Tara Sinclair, who served as deputy assistant secretary for macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at Treasury between 2022 and 2024 and is now chair of The George Washington University's Economics Department.

Loretta Mester, former president and CEO of the Cleveland Fed and adjunct finance professor at Wharton, discusses the critical role of the Federal Reserve's independence. She highlights how the next Fed chair must navigate political pressures to maintain credibility. Mester delves into the challenges posed by presidential influence on monetary policy and emphasizes the need for consensus in the FOMC. She also explores the effects of tariffs on inflation and how businesses are adapting to economic changes while advocating for the long-term benefits of free trade.

The U.S. economy is operating under a regime of fiscal dominance that will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to keep a lid on inflation, Eric Leeper, a former Fed economist now at the University of Virginia, said on The FedSpeak Podcast.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson sees a "slow grind" in the labor market as hiring weakens and employment shows a lack of dynamism. However, she doesn't think the will be enough to trigger Fed rate cuts this year, particularly considering strong wage growth and uncertainty about the path of inflation in a high tariff environment.

U.S. inflation expectations are not contained despite officials assurances to the contrary, which means inflation could quickly resume rising and climb above 4% before the end of the year, says Berkeley economist and SF Fed adviser Yuriy Gorodnichenko, who recently presented a paper at the Fed Board's 2nd Thomas Laubach conference. This will put a Fed in a bind that not only prevents them from cutting interest rates but my even force them to hike, he told MNI.

Former Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker discusses the outlook for interest rate policy and the economy amid the challenge of volatile trade wars, as well as his concerns about the expansion of the Fed's powers in conducting credit policy over time.

ECB economist explains why China might reroute trade to Europe in a higher degree than during the trade tensions in 2018

Ex-Dallas Fed Adviser Danielle DiMartino Booth thinks the U.S. economy was already in recession even before Trump's tariffs hit. Now, she believes the Fed is making a mistake by keeping interest rates steady. She is also concerned about threats to the dollar's safe-have status.

Former Ontario forecasting manager and Oxford Economics Canada analyst Tony Stillo says prior cuts to neutral and concern about tariff inflation will keep the Bank of Canada on hold.

Seth Carpenter, former deputy director the Fed board's division of monetary affairs, thinks the central bank will barely be able to squeeze in another rate cut this year if at all before tariffs boost inflation for a while, leaving policymakers on hold until well into 2026.