On this episode: Veteran pollster and political analyst Scott Rasmussen was one of the first experts to call a victory for president elect Donald Trump on the night of November 5th. Hear his thoughts on the accuracy of polling this cycle; the difference between polling and surveys (and why that matters); why Trump’s sweep of the swing states doesn’t equate to a landslide; the role A.I. might play in polling over the next few years; and more.  Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates  Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at ontheballot@ballotpedia.org or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia. *On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide we identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties. Ballotpedia defined Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties. While vote totals are still being tabulated in some states, as of November 6th 2024, there were: 169 Pivot Counties across 27 states that Trump won in 2020 and 2024 Two Pivot Counties—one each in Vermont and Connecticut—that Trump won in 2020 and Harris won in 2024 14 Pivot Counties across 10 states that voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Trump in 2024 Seven Pivot Counties across six states that voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Harris in 2024 Check out our full analysis of pivot counties: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2024:_Pivot_Counties_in_the_2024_presidential_election  Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates  Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at ontheballot@ballotpedia.org or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia. *On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Voters in 41 states decided on 146 statewide ballot measures on November 5th, and as of the 7th at 12:00 PM ET, 87 (59.6%) statewide ballot measures were approved, 46 (31.5%) were defeated, and 13 (8.9%) remained uncalled. Ryan Byrne — the head of our ballot measures team — joins the show to share what we know so far, how the major trends played out, and what it might all mean for direct democracy in 2025.   Follow along with our ballot measure coverage here: https://ballotpedia.org/2024_ballot_measure_election_results  Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates  Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at ontheballot@ballotpedia.org or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia. *On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Former president Donald Trump has won the race for the White House with Vice President Kamala Harris conceding earlier this afternoon. Republicans have won control of the Senate, while it still may be some time until we know the outcome of the House. With results rolling in, we take a closer look at what we know about state-level elections thus far, including state legislative chambers, state SCOTUS,’ and more.   (This episode was recorded at 3:30pm ET. Be sure to check out our site for the latest news!) - Follow along with our updates here: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2024  - Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates  *On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: A late night look at the results rolling in for presidential, congressional, state, and local elections, as well ballot measures. (This episode was recorded at 12am ET. Georgia was called for Trump immediately after we concluded recording, and other updates have likely arrived since publishing — so be sure to check out our site for the latest news!) – Follow along with our updates here: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2024  – Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates  *On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: At least 83 million people have voted early in this year's election (78 at the time this episode was recorded). How does that compare to what we saw in 2020? And what can we learn from who’s choosing to vote early this time around? With less than 24 hours to go(!) until election day, we welcome the University of Florida’s Michael McDonald—one of the country’s foremost experts on early voting—to the show to break down his analysis of early voting, key anecdotes of from swing states, what to make of the Selzer poll out of Iowa, and more. - Follow along with election results: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2024  - Check out Michael’s work on early voting at UF’s Election Lab: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/  - Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates  *On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.  Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at ontheballot@ballotpedia.org or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

On this episode: A brief overview of the 15 races we’re watching including races for U.S. Senate, House, governors, other state executives, state supreme court judgeships, and state legislatures. Our  editorial department selected these elections based on past election results, unique election-specific circumstances, and election race ratings. The final selections include a mix of federal, state, and local races. Briana Ryan, Ethan Sorell, and Lara Bonatesta of our elections team join the show for a lightning round preview of the races that stick out most to them.  Explore our report here: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Top_15_Elections_to_Watch,_2024  Our full list of the 15 elections we're watching includes:  U.S. Senate election in Michigan U.S. Senate election in Ohio California's 13th Congressional District election New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District election New York's 17th Congressional District election Oregon's 5th Congressional District election Washington's 3rd Congressional District election New Hampshire gubernatorial election Attorney General of North Carolina election Alaska House of Representatives elections Arizona State Legislature elections Michigan House of Representatives elections New Hampshire State Senate elections Michigan Supreme Court elections Ohio Supreme Court elections Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates  *On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: Voters in 41 states will decide on 146 statewide ballot measures at the general election on November 5. A few members of our ballot measures team join the show to break down our top 15 to watch across the country, which address issues like abortion, ranked-choice voting, non-citizen voting, criminal justice, wages, and drug-use policies.  Explore our full report here: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Top_15_Ballot_Measures_and_Trends_to_Watch,_2024  Our Top 15 ballot measures to watch next week include: Florida Amendment 4: Right to Abortion Initiative Southwestern Swing States, Arizona and Nevada: Right to Abortion Initiatives Nebraska Initiative 434 and 439: Competing Abortion Initiatives Amarillo, Texas, and San Francisco, California: Local Abortion Measures Alaska Ballot Measure 2: Repeal Top-Four RCV Initiative Colorado, Idaho, and Nevada RCV: Top-Four and Top-Five RCV Initiatives Arizona Propositions 133 and 140: Competing Electoral Systems Amendments Washington, D.C. Initiative 83: RCV Initiative Eight States: Non-Citizen Voting Ban Amendments Ohio Issue 1: Redistricting Commission Initiative California Proposition 36: Drug and Theft Crime Penalties Initiative Florida Amendment 3: Marijuana Legalization Initiative Washington Initiatives 2066 and 2117: Energy Policy Initiatives Colorado and Kentucky: School Choice Amendments Nebraska Referendum 435: Private School Education Scholarships Referendum Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates  Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at ontheballot@ballotpedia.org or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia. *On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

On this episode: There might not be anything we take more seriously than our status as one of the leading nonpartisan political outlets in the country. We look out for and identify 25 distinct types of bias when it comes to political coverage — from speech tribe language to cherry-picking favorable sources and parroting the news. Kelly Coyle, who helps lead and craft our approach to bias, joins the show for a little Bias 101 with less than a week to go to the election.  Learn more about how we categorize bias and the 25 distinct types we look out for: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia:How_we_categorize_bias Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates  *On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.  Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at ontheballot@ballotpedia.org or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

On this episode: Since 2018, more than 15,000 candidates for political office have completed Ballotpedia’s candidate survey. This tool is a wonderful way to help voters learn more about their candidates, and we’ve processed more than 6,000 for this election cycle alone for federal, state and local elections. Four members of our staff who work closely on the survey every year — Sarah Groat, Ken Carbullido, Spencer Richardson, and Sam Wonacott — join the show to share some of their favorite anecdotes about this year’s results and the impact these surveys can have on races big and small.   Learn more about the survey: https://ballotpedia.org/Survey  Sign up for our Newsletters: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia_Email_Updates   Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at ontheballot@ballotpedia.org or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia. *On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.