The Walker Webcast

In this episode, Willy welcomes Lotfi Karoui. Lotfi joined Goldman Sachs in 2007 and was promoted to managing director in 2015. Currently, he is the Chief Credit Strategist and head of the Credit Research Group at Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banking, securities, and management firms. His research covers a wide span of topics, including income markets, interest rate models, and macro-finance. His work is published in various academic journals, including the Journal of Financial Economics, Management Science, the Journal of Derivatives, and the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. To start, Willy asks Lotfi about Paul Tudor Jones’ opinion in a recent CNBC interview, in which he stated, “You don’t want to be in bonds or stocks right now. I can’t think of a worse macro-environment...” Lotfi points out the paradigm shift of the newfound ability for investors to park their cash, decreasing the urgency of putting money in bonds and stocks. The built-up risk premium also becomes a factor, citing widened corporate bond spreads as an example. Lotfi continues to explain that “anything that has a little bit of duration risk has probably its worst start ever,” encompassing investment-grade and treasury bonds. The terminal value of the fed funds rate is set to peak at 3%, which coincides with Goldman Sachs view of the ideal target to dip one’s toes into bonds. Lotfi noticed a significant trend in the past five economic declines: The slope of the yield curve has done a fantastic job at predicting future recessions. However, he enumerates two caveats – correlation is not entirely causation, and the current cycle has proven to be more nuanced since the onset of the Great Moderation in the early eighties. He also emphasizes the imbalance in the labor market, with the federal government slowing down the economy without pressuring businesses to lay off employees. He presents his definition of a soft landing in terms of the ongoing inflation and status of the employment market and rates – the slowing down of the economy below potential while avoiding recession that causes companies to overreact. He states that the odds of a recession happening over the next two years are 35%. As gas prices are climbing, Lotfi highlights that demand destruction is the only way to rebalance the energy market instead of shrinking the demand side of the equation. He compares the effects of oil shocks on the United States and the European markets. The US economy is protected from the negative consequences due to a meaningful offset. Whereas Europe, they heavily rely on Russia to import their commodities. Lofti defines the current cycles as unpredictable and having more complex qualities. While the credit cycle is fairly young, the general business cycle is far ahead in its lifetime, making it impossible to tell if it is currently in recovery. Regarding inflated housing prices, Lotfi says the average monthly mortgage payment in the U.S. has increased by 41% in 2022. This is largely caused by tight inventories and real estate companies building fewer structures than needed. The episode ends with Lotfi’s interpretation of why companies are choosing to hire local talent rather than investing in foreign labor. The slowdown of globalization to regionalization has resulted from varied factors, such as the COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The pandemic has brought to light previously hidden weaknesses in how companies manage their supply chains.Listen to the replay!If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Power is in the hands of the ones with cash – that’s the general prediction of the corporate real estate market moving forward post-pandemic. With multi-family companies throwing money at more rental housing and inflation numbers at an all-time high, the future is uncertain as consumers struggle to afford a place to live. Research and Securities Executive VP Ivy Zelman, Investment and Sales Executive VP Kris Mikkelsen, Capital Markets Senior Managing Director Aaron Appel join Willy Walker on this week’s Walker Webcast as they dissect the current condition of the corporate real estate industry, why money is king, the probability of a soft landing versus a hard landing, and their thoughts on the best areas to invest in right now. Ivy Zelman sheds light on how rentals are unsustainable as more capital is flowing into the space, and a backlog of properties without leases exists. She also points out the disconnect between buyers’ willingness to pay and sellers’ expectations. Kris Mikkelsen lays out where he would put on his dollars – capital assets where rates can be reset and capital in markets with strong growth fundamentals and low risk. He emphasizes a lower leverage point and the ever-changing cost of homeownership in the past three months. Aaron Appel believes the future of CRE isn’t completely bleak, as time and time again, we’ve witnessed the market adjusting when there’s enough distress. But with the country’s escalating debt, inflation comes as a result of working to overcome it. Tune in to this new episode of Driven By Insight — CRE State of the Union with Ivy Zelman, Kris Mikkelsen, and Aaron Appel. GET NOTIFIED about upcoming shows: » Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5jhzGBWOTvQku2kLbucGcw » See upcoming guests on the #WalkerWebcast here: https://www.walkerdunlop.com/webcasts/Listen to the replay!If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has said, “Finding a way to ensure that the advent of digital superintelligence is symbiotic with humanity is the single biggest existential crisis we face.” This quote encapsulates Mo Gawdat’s views and opinions in his best-selling book, Scary Smart, a roadmap detailing and predicting how AI can inevitably take over the human race. Mo Gawdat joins Willy Walker on this week’s Walker Webcast as he breaks down the evolution of AI, humanity’s cognitive limitations in controlling AI’s rapid growth, his biggest fears for the future of AI, its use in war and prevention in future disasters like COVID-19, and our responsibility as users in teaching AI to have “our best interests in mind”. Mo Gawdat describes AI not as machines but as “digital beings with experiences, fears, consciousness, and emotions”, capable of deep learning. He likens them to infants, absorbing every piece of knowledge being fed. “The more data you give them, the more they can see and observe patterns,” he adds. He emphasizes humanity’s refusal to take accountability in raising these “artificially intelligent children”, waiting for the government to control the inescapable doom of them disrupting our lifestyles, economies, political landscapes, and overall welfare. Mo Gawdat continues to warn us of the machine’s ability to sway public reasoning and opinions through social media algorithms. “They’re doing that in billions of recommendations every day…and then you start to realize that we are already in a place where we’re dominated. We’re already being told by the machines what to do.” Tune in to this new episode of the Walker Webcast — The Future of AI with Mo Gawdat, Author of Scary Smart and Former Google X Executive. GET NOTIFIED about upcoming shows: » Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5jhzGBWOTvQku2kLbucGcw » See upcoming guests on the #WalkerWebcast here: https://www.walkerdunlop.com/webcasts/Listen to the replay!If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There’s never been a better time for women leaders than now. That’s what Mary Callahan Erdoes believes as the opportunity for remote and online work has provided the flexibility for family time and career growth. As the CEO of J.P. Morgan’s Asset and Wealth Management, she has brought one of the largest and most reliable investment banks to $4 trillion in client assets. Philanthropy is also close to her heart as she serves as a board member of New York City’s Robin Hood Foundation. Mary Callahan Erdoes joins Willy Walker on this week’s Walker Webcast as she gives her two cents on the unpredictability of the global market, her advice on investing in cryptocurrency, how more competition keeps the economy booming, and her close working ties with CEO Jamie Dimon. She emphasizes appreciating and recognizing both one’s milestones and empty tombstones – as any downturn is a chance to reevaluate methods and strategies. This optimistic outlook has set J.P. Morgan to be ready in handling any catastrophic situation. “Our job is to always prepare for the worst and hope for the best,” she adds. “If you do it the other way around, you’re going to get yourself in big trouble. That’s how we’re wired.” Diversity and inclusion have always been a priority for Mary Callahan Erdoes. J.P. Morgan’s efforts in investing in low-income housing and more poverty-stricken areas and opening doors to recruiting a wide slate of talent prove their stance on making a bigger difference in today’s work culture and society. Tune in to this new episode of the Walker Webcast — How to Manage $4 Trillion with Mary Callahan Erdoes, J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management CEO. GET NOTIFIED about upcoming shows: » Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5jhzGBWOTvQku2kLbucGcw » See upcoming guests on the #WalkerWebcast here: https://www.walkerdunlop.com/webcasts/Listen to the replay!If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Musician Keith Richards once said, “I’ve imagined it all. I just didn’t think it would happen.” It’s a quote that sums up Amor Towles’ feelings after the unforeseen success of his work. Being a New York Times’ Best-Selling Author of three noteworthy novels, Amor Towles has also juggled being a professional banker with family members in the finance space and a tennis player to further cultivate his creative juices. Amor Towles joins Willy Walker on this week’s Walker Webcast as they flip the pages of his childhood love for fiction, how novels are writer’s symphonies, his profound interest in Russian literature, and why the need to be historically accurate should come second in the writing process. He attributes the refinement of his books to the caring attention and assessment of his wife, his fiction-loving friends, his agent, his editor, and his adoring readers who are never afraid to point out any logical oversight in his stories. A thesaurus definitely isn’t handy nor useful - as much as most people would believe. For Amor Towles, it’s impossible to draw out the multi-dimensionality of a character with the reliance on outside resources. “I have to trust what sounds right to my ear,” he says. “The vocabulary has sprung in a way from my sense of their [the character’s] personality and upbringing. What would they say? What would sound right to them?” Guesting on Late Night with Seth Meyers was a humbling opportunity as the host was an enthusiastic fan of his work. The appearance opened the door for Amor Towles’ to fulfill what he truly set out to do. “The biggest satisfaction is knowing that the book is finding an audience, resonating with people, and has made an impact in their lives in some interesting way,” he adds. Tune in to this new episode of the Walker Webcast — Penning a Best-Seller with Amor Towles, New York Best-Selling Author. GET NOTIFIED about upcoming shows: » Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5jhzGBWOTvQku2kLbucGcw » See upcoming guests on the #WalkerWebcast here: https://www.walkerdunlop.com/webcasts/Listen to the replay!If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Leading Economist and former Wharton Professor Dr. Peter Linneman is optimistic about the U.S. economy, although not every moment. With a divided Congress, the war in Ukraine, rising interest rates, and skyrocketing oil prices amid an ongoing pandemic, Dr. Linneman shares his quarterly predictions and provides insights to help you understand what's to come. Dr. Linneman presents the most prescient analysis, and he cites that before things got so hard, nobody could have guessed in February 2020 that the GDP could still grow by 3.5%. He considers it staggering and the main point. "We've undergrown, and we have potential just to catch up and then have normal growth. So I think that that's what's going to happen now over the next few years." Dr. Linneman mentions that a devastating variant of the virus can change anything, but the biggest wildcard he considers would stop the left to right upward kind of recovery is price controls. "I remember in 1971 when Nixon, a Republican, put in wage and price controls, and I remember the disaster that ensued. And yet, the U.S. economy grew over the five years, but it was a mess. It was an absolute mess because it's like fooling Mother Nature, right? Once you do this price, there's a knock-on effect on another. That's what we found out during the shutdown. You shut down one thing, but you also shut down many other things. So the biggest risk to the recovery is not interest rates, it's not inflation, it's wage and price controls." The leading economist adds that looking at the real factors matter. Over two years, real GDP, a crude measure of demand in the economy, has been up 3.5%. Industrial output, a crude measure of industrial goods capacity, is down 1% and employment, a crude measure of service sector supply down 1%, and demand's up 3.5%. Willy and Dr. Linneman cover how to bridge the gap as new government policies create an imbalance between the carbon economy and a green economy, pushing into renewables when there is still the demand for fossil fuels while exploration and refining companies are not investing anymore. In the world of CRE, Dr. Linneman cites things to consider when you're considering an investment in 2022. You have to look at the relative demand growth versus supply. "Generally over a three to five year period, supply and demand are going to grow about the same. If you're a developer, you want to be where demands grow because you're in the business of servicing growth with your fees and creating products and so forth. If you're an investor, you care about supply and demand. So the red hot cities are certainly industrial, people are looking at them pretty attractively for investing, and in the red hot cities, they're looking at them, certainly from multifamily. The cold cities are starting to get a relook." Tune in to this new episode of the Walker Webcast - The Best Hour in CRE with Dr. Peter Linneman.GET NOTIFIED about upcoming shows: » Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5jhzGBWOTvQku2kLbucGcw » See upcoming guests on the #WalkerWebcast here: https://www.walkerdunlop.com/webcasts/Listen to the replay!If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

He's on top of his game and has perfected how to invest in success. He is Tope Lawani — the pride of Nigeria who has earned his MIT and Harvard education and is now making waves across the globe as a private equity pioneer. His firm, Helios Investment Partners, is Africa's largest private equity firm, focusing on technology, infrastructure, and sustainability. This special episode of the #WalkerWebcast is an inspiring discussion between Willy and his Harvard Business School classmate. They cover the makings of investing in the world's fastest-growing continent, how advanced digital payment platforms are allowing African nations to leapfrog parts of the western world, and how private capital has created economic and social value throughout the African continent. Tope tells his origin story, which seemed perfect for his immense contributions today. When he was younger, he lived essentially on campus with close to 100 nationalities. Surrounding his home are neighbors from Taiwan, Israel, Korea, Jamaica, Sierra Leone and people he has learned and interacted with from almost all parts of the world. "I grew up in an extremely multicultural environment. From the get-go, I was always comfortable with everyone coming from different backgrounds. I went to school with the kids from all strata of society. They were children of the president, the vice president, all the heads of the armed forces. But equally, a decent percentage of my school kids were probably the first kids in their entire family history ever to go to school. They turn up to school with all their belongings in a sack of rice." Tope adds that his unusual childhood can be difficult to replicate. Working for TPG Capital from 1996 to 2004 has taught Tope to be creative, entrepreneurial, hard-working and empowered. He later moved on and started his own firm, Helios. Raising that first fund exclusively focused on Africa wasn't a walk in the park. "There was some benefit of just naivete, which helped to be honest, because I think a first time fund in a pretty niche market is either impossible or it's easy. There's no such thing as it's in the middle. It's either just it won't happen, or you might stumble into some blind luck, and then it happens." From telecom towers, undersea cables, oil and gas, fintech and more — there's so many to start for Tope where everything he touches seems to turn to gold. His company Helios was named the Firm of the Year for Africa by Private Equity International after winning it in the past consecutive years since 2016. It's amazing how substantial the capital they've raised for infrastructure investments. "There are many great things, and I think better about investing in Africa. We've pioneered and have been first in discovering many things. The economic infrastructure needs to exist at some point, and we have to build it now as opposed to buying it." Tune in to this new episode of the Walker Webcast — Invest In Success with Tope Lawani, Co-Founder & CEO of Helios Investment Partners.GET NOTIFIED about upcoming shows: » Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5jhzGBWOTvQku2kLbucGcw » See upcoming guests on the #WalkerWebcast here: https://www.walkerdunlop.com/webcasts/Listen to the replay!If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A special Walker Webcast comes your way as big powerhouses come to share a wealth of experience and industry insights combined in the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) Conference! Join this conversation with friends, former chairpersons and incredibly successful entrepreneurs and leaders in the multifamily industry: > Doug Bibby, President of NMHC > Daryl J Carter Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Avanath Capital Management, LLC, a California-based investment firm that specializes in affordable and workforce communities > David Schwartz, CEO, Chairman, and Co-Founder of Waterton, a real estate investment and property management company specializing in multifamily, senior living, and hospitality > Susan Ansel, President and CEO of Gables Residential, a private REIT focused on development, acquisition, and management of multifamily communities Willy Walker engages these industry greats as they share their reflections on NMHC. As a national organization with more than 1,700 members that has been promoting and advocating for the multifamily industry since 2001. Doug Bibby shares that his sole cause in his successful run of the NMHC was putting people in homes. "That was always a motivator for me. We're putting a roof over people's heads, we're not polluting the environment, and we're not doing bad things. We're actually helping people achieve their dreams." Willie asks Doug to share how he took the rest of his executive team and turned Fannie Mae from being a huge liability to the taxpayers, becoming one of the truly great corporations in America. "We have reinvented what was essentially a government bureaucracy, with 20% of the employees who were civil servants, and there was one product line. It was a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. There were no arms, no multifamily, no embassy. And we were able to reinvent everything." He brought his 16-year experience and excitement to his role at NMHC. Daryl Carter acknowledges the values that Doug had that were instrumental in positively shaping the industry, one in which to accommodate more institutional capital. Starting Waterton in 1995 shows a big difference in scale level and the types of funds they're raising with the whole process transforming materially. Sue Ansel attributes her involvement with NMHC as very helpful to her growth. As CEO of a major real estate corporation and chairwoman of NHMC, the experience of picking the brains of impactful executives in other large organizations affects her own leadership. "Those are some of the really unique opportunities that we get in these roles and a huge chance of a lifetime." David Schwartz enumerates the highlights of being NMHC chairman growing in servant leadership, emotional intelligence, authenticity, and trust. He covers how being underbuilt as an industry puts us behind for over a decade that we're just not building enough housing, resulting in this rent inflation. Daryl Carter is all praises for the culture that has been built at NMHC. There may have been "a lot of work, but also a lot of joy". One of the interesting things is the relationships between the people who work like brothers and sisters, serve in the industry and fight for the common goal of house affordability.GET NOTIFIED about upcoming shows: » Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5jhzGBWOTvQku2kLbucGcw » See upcoming guests on the #WalkerWebcast here: https://www.walkerdunlop.com/webcasts/Listen to the replay!If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You are selling every day — whether you realize it or not. Whether you're a CEO or a stay at home mom, you have to sell your ideas to people. What matters first is asking yourself, have you bought into your vision for yourself, your life, and your business? Legendary sales coach Jack Daly shares that many people perish without achieving their purpose because they lack direction tied to one's priorities and values. In this new episode, Jack joins Willy to explore the crucial lessons he learned in a 30-year career in sales and as an executive by building six companies into national platforms, developing proven systems and processes to grow revenue and profitability and building a winning company culture. On top of his incredible career – he's accomplished numerous personal feats only a few can match: playing the top 100 golf courses, competing in over 93 marathons and more. Willy opens the conversation by sharing how listening to Jack speak in 2007 changed the trajectory of Walker and Dunlop. "There were two things that you said in that presentation that stuck with me: the first one you said was, 'if you have a vision for your company, you need to make sure that everybody in your company aligns with that vision. And if you have anybody who doesn't align with that vision, they can't be on your team because they are cancer inside your organization.' The other one, which was, I would say, the most impactful thing I have ever been told was if you aren't answering that question 'Where are we going?' for your team every single day, you are failing as a CEO." Willy asks Jack why implementing strategies like the money bag, and handwritten notes will never go out of style. Jack's book The Sales Playbook covers the story of how he made millions of dollars by building relationships over the years. Another book, Hyper Sales Growth, teaches the importance of systems and processes in the sales side of the house and connects to the analogy he gave on why "sports teams run better than most businesses." His new book Life By Design tells Jack's own success of living his life to the fullest, creating goals each year to help achieve everything on his long bucket list. With meticulous care, Jack plans, tracks, and compares key metrics of his travel, health, and personal aspirations to control performance and hold himself accountable. Tune in to this new episode of the Walker Webcast — Selling Smarter, Not Harder with Jack Daly, Professional Sales Coach. GET NOTIFIED about upcoming shows: » Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5jhzGBWOTvQku2kLbucGcw » See upcoming guests on the #WalkerWebcast here: https://www.walkerdunlop.com/webcasts/Listen to the replay!If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan is determined to bridge the political divide. As one of only two Republican governors to be re-elected for a second term in Maryland's 242-year history, Governor Hogan is creating change and “making the most out of every day.” On this new episode of the Walker Webcast, Willy and Governor Hogan explore an engaging conversation on the state of politics in America, the future of the Republican Party, leadership during Covid-19, the importance of integrity, and his battle with stage 3 non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Willy opens the conversation asking if Governor Hogan ever considered following in his father's footsteps, Congressman Larry Hogan, Sr., a lawyer turned FBI agent turned politician. The governor shares he wanted to be a basketball coach when he was younger and is a late bloomer in politics. He cites his father's most important lessons on integrity and public service. Hogan Sr. was the first Republican member of the House Judiciary Committee to call for the impeachment of President Richard Nixon. He showed independence as a political leader, putting the country above the party and insisted on a fair and transparent process. The younger Hogan embodies these in his brand of politics, recognized nationally as a strong, independent leader who consistently delivers real results and achieves common sense, bipartisan solutions. Governor Hogan recalls the funny story of how he "rebelled" by supporting Ronald Reagan while his father was for Gerald Ford as a college kid. Governor Hogan looks to what the Reagan presidency stood for that guided him throughout his political career. With how the government operates now, Willy asks what it's like to compare the state and national levels. Governor Hogan shares, "Most people in America want to elect leaders, regardless of their party affiliation that are willing to work together, to focus on solving problems. And unfortunately, that's not what's happening in Washington, where we're just at the state Capitol here in Annapolis, we're 30 miles down the road from the nation's capital, and we couldn't be more different, working together and getting things done on any number of issues." Willy and Governor Hogan recall his first campaign in 2014. As a small businessman who had never held elective office, he ran with a small budget to address massive problems with lack of jobs, high taxes and the opioid crisis. "Nobody was even paying attention to our race as if we had no chance at all. But as I traveled around the state, I saw the struggling middle-class families were suffering, and small businesses were being hurt. We just went out with a grassroots campaign. I started a group called Change Maryland. I went all across the state just talking to people. We had very little funding. We weren't expected to win. It was a big shocker because I pulled off the biggest surprise upset in America in 2014." GET NOTIFIED about upcoming shows: » Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5jhzGBWOTvQku2kLbucGcw » See upcoming guests on the #WalkerWebcast here: https://www.walkerdunlop.com/webcasts/Listen to the replay!If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices