Lotfi Karoui, Chief Credit Strategist and head of the Credit Research Group at Goldman Sachs

In this episode, Willy welcomes Lotfi Karoui. Lotfi joined Goldman Sachs in 2007 and was promoted to managing director in 2015. Currently, he is the Chief Credit Strategist and head of the Credit Research Group at Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banking, securities, and management firms. His research covers a wide span of topics, including income markets, interest rate models, and macro-finance. His work is published in various academic journals, including the Journal of Financial Economics, Management Science, the Journal of Derivatives, and the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. To start, Willy asks Lotfi about Paul Tudor Jones’ opinion in a recent CNBC interview, in which he stated, “You don’t want to be in bonds or stocks right now. I can’t think of a worse macro-environment...” Lotfi points out the paradigm shift of the newfound ability for investors to park their cash, decreasing the urgency of putting money in bonds and stocks. The built-up risk premium also becomes a factor, citing widened corporate bond spreads as an example. Lotfi continues to explain that “anything that has a little bit of duration risk has probably its worst start ever,” encompassing investment-grade and treasury bonds. The terminal value of the fed funds rate is set to peak at 3%, which coincides with Goldman Sachs view of the ideal target to dip one’s toes into bonds. Lotfi noticed a significant trend in the past five economic declines: The slope of the yield curve has done a fantastic job at predicting future recessions. However, he enumerates two caveats – correlation is not entirely causation, and the current cycle has proven to be more nuanced since the onset of the Great Moderation in the early eighties. He also emphasizes the imbalance in the labor market, with the federal government slowing down the economy without pressuring businesses to lay off employees. He presents his definition of a soft landing in terms of the ongoing inflation and status of the employment market and rates – the slowing down of the economy below potential while avoiding recession that causes companies to overreact. He states that the odds of a recession happening over the next two years are 35%. As gas prices are climbing, Lotfi highlights that demand destruction is the only way to rebalance the energy market instead of shrinking the demand side of the equation. He compares the effects of oil shocks on the United States and the European markets. The US economy is protected from the negative consequences due to a meaningful offset. Whereas Europe, they heavily rely on Russia to import their commodities. Lofti defines the current cycles as unpredictable and having more complex qualities. While the credit cycle is fairly young, the general business cycle is far ahead in its lifetime, making it impossible to tell if it is currently in recovery. Regarding inflated housing prices, Lotfi says the average monthly mortgage payment in the U.S. has increased by 41% in 2022. This is largely caused by tight inventories and real estate companies building fewer structures than needed. The episode ends with Lotfi’s interpretation of why companies are choosing to hire local talent rather than investing in foreign labor. The slowdown of globalization to regionalization has resulted from varied factors, such as the COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The pandemic has brought to light previously hidden weaknesses in how companies manage their supply chains.

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