Australia in the World

Allan and Darren begin this episode by stepping back from a very busy first two months of foreign policy for the new government. If one were to build a model of the making of Australian foreign policy, what could we learn from from this particular case study and how would it stand out? Turning to events, the analysis begins with PM Albanese’s trip to Europe for the NATO summit, then turns to the travels and speeches of FM Wong and DM Marles, including Wong’s important meeting with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Bali. Next they turn to the recent Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Suva and the withdrawal of Kiribati from the grouping, and finish with a discussion of the latest Lowy Institute Poll. We thank Annabel Howard for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Penny Wong, “Keynote address in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia”, 29 June 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/keynote-address-kuala-lumpur-malaysia Penny Wong, “Special lecture to the International Institute for Strategic Studies - A shared future: Australia, ASEAN and Southeast Asia”, 6 July 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/special-lecture-international-institute-strategic-studies-shared-future-australia-asean-and-southeast-asia Penny Wong, “Meeting with China’s State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi”, Media release, 8 July 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/meeting-chinas-state-councilor-and-minister-foreign-affairs-wang-yi “Wang Yi Meets with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC”, 9 July 2022: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202207/t20220710_10718115.html Press Conference (Transcript), Prime Minister and Treasurer, 11 July 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-parliament-house-canberra Jocelyn Chey, “When words matter: Reviewing the Wong-Wang meeting”, Pearls and Irritations, 13 July 2022: https://johnmenadue.com/when-words-matter-reviewing-the-wong-wang-meeting/ Richard Marles, “Speech: National Defence College New Delhi, India”, 22 June 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/speeches/speech-national-defence-college-new-delhi-india Richard Marles, “Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)”, 12 July 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/speeches/address-center-strategic-and-international-studies-csis Lowy Institute Poll: https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/ Bruce Miller, “For all his nationalism, Abe was a true globalist and statesman”, Australian Financial Review, 10 July 2022: https://www.afr.com/world/asia/for-all-his-nationalism-abe-was-a-true-globalist-and-statesman-20220710-p5b0g4 Hugh White, “Sleepwalk to war: Australia’s Unthinking Alliance with America”, Quarterly Essay 86, June 2022: https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2022/06/sleepwalk-to-war “Gurrumul - Bayini ft. Sarah Blasko” (youtube): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yDrbbNF89E “Reimagining and realising our future”, Youth National Security Strategy: https://strategy.ynss.org/ Victor Ferguson, Scott Waldron and Darren Lim, “Market adjustments to import sanctions: lessons from Chinese restrictions on Australian trade, 2020–21”, Review of International Political Economy, 7 July 2022: https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2022.2090019

The new Labor government has begun its term with a whirlwind of activity for Australia in the World. Allan and Darren begin their analysis with the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where Defence Minister Richard Marles gave his first major speech and met with his Chinese counterpart. Next comes Prime Minister Albanese’s visit to Indonesia, Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s visits to Fiji, Samoa and Tonga, and the episode finishes with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s controversial disclosures regarding AUKUS negotiations, and news of a financial settlement over the aborted French submarine deal. We thank Annabel Howard for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Richard Marles, “Address: IISS 19th Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore”, 11 June 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/speeches/address-iiss-19th-shangri-la-dialogue-singapore Richard Marles, “Press conference, IISS Asia Security Summit, Singapore” 12 June 2022: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/rmarles/transcripts/press-conference-iiss-asia-security-summit-singapore Remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (As Delivered), 11 June 2022: https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3059852/remarks-at-the-shangri-la-dialogue-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-a/ “China will fight to the very end to stop Taiwan independence: Defence minister | Shangri-La Dialogue”, General Wei Fenghe speech at Shangri-La Dialogue (video), 12 June 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_KMS5proso Anthony Albanese, “Address to Hasanuddin University”, 7 June 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-hasanuddin-university Penny Wong, “Speech to the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat”, Suva, 26 May 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-pacific-islands-forum-secretariat Peter Dutton, “Labor must not torpedo crucial submarine plan”, The Australian, 8 June 2022: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/labor-must-not-torpedo-crucial-submarine-plan/news-story/bfe37713892d105203cdca255d86743c

With Australia's federal election results (mostly) known and a new Prime Minister and Foreign Minister sworn in, Allan and Darren examine the meaning of the election and what lies ahead for Australia in the world. As they first discussed in 2019 (episode 19), it is the practice of all government departments to prepare an “incoming government brief”: a document presented to the new (or returning) minister for each department, for the purpose of providing a descriptive overview of what the department does, and highlighting the most important issues facing that particular portfolio as the new term commences. Allan and Darren offer their own thoughts on these matters in this episode.  However, the election result itself is significant in its own right, so before discussing the path ahead for the new Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the specific challenges facing Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Allan and Darren offer their own analysis of the result - both those factors specific to Australia but also what it might mean in a broader comparative context.  We thank Dominique Yap for helping out with audio editing today, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Transcript, Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs, "Quad Leaders’ Summit; Australia’s relationship with China; Solomon Islands; Russia; Taiwan; AUKUS; climate change", Tokyo, 24 May 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-0  The Jezabels, Ten Year Anniversary Tour: https://thejezabels.com/live/  The Girl from the North Country: https://www.northcountry.com.au/ 

With Australia’s federal election to be held this Saturday, Allan and Darren conduct a quick discussion of the role foreign policy has played over the past month during the campaign, and what we can learn regardless of who will form government. Then, to finish, eyebrows are raised in response to reporting detailing secret conversations between very senior Australian and US national security officials regarding AUKUS and the US' need for bipartisan support for the deal within Australia.   We thank Annabel Howard for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Kishor Napier-Raman, “An oddly civil election debate, before Dutton finds a warship-shaped dead cat”, Crikey, 13 May 2022: https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/13/an-oddly-civil-election-debate/ Little Red Podcast, “Kevin Rudd: Is War With China Inevitable?”, 28 April 2022: https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/kevin-rudd-is-war-with-china-inevitable Nick Bisley, Robyn Eckersley, Shahar Hameiri, Jessica Kirk, George Lawson & Benjamin Zala (2022) For a progressive realism: Australian foreign policy in the 21st century, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 76:2, 138-160: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357718.2022.2051428 Asia-Pacific Development Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue: https://www.asiapacific4d.com/ Peter Hartcher, “Radioactive: Inside the top-secret AUKUS subs deal”, Sydney Morning Herald, 14 May 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/radioactive-inside-the-top-secret-aukus-subs-deal-20220510-p5ak7g.html   Peter Hartcher, “Biden demanded bipartisan support before signing AUKUS. Labor was not told for months”, Sydney Morning Herald, 14 May 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/national/biden-demanded-bipartisan-support-before-signing-aukus-labor-was-not-told-for-months-20220513-p5al9d.html   Peter Hartcher,  “AUKUS fallout: double-dealing and deception came at a diplomatic cost”, Sydney Morning Herald, 15 May 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/national/aukus-fallout-double-dealing-and-deception-came-at-a-diplomatic-cost-20220513-p5al95.html Linda Jaivin, The shortest history of China, Black Inc: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/shortest-history-china Yun Jiang, Rethinking China (video), 8 May 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=462TgDdgEcE Ezra Klein Show, "What does the ‘post-liberal right’ actually want?", Interview with Patrick Deneen, 13 May 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-patrick-deneen.html Pekingology podcast, “Foreign and Security Policymaking in Xi Jinping’s China”, Interview with Suisheng Zhao, 6 May 2022: https://www.csis.org/node/65210

Foreign policy has been thrust to the forefront of the Australian election campaign, with the announcement this week that Solomon Islands and China have officially signed a security agreement. Allan and Darren talk through the background, logic, politics and implications of the deal. Their core focus is on Solomon Islands itself – the interests of the government in entering this agreement and the risks, what Australia has done and could in future do to protect its own interests, and what the pact might mean for the region’s security into the future. We thank Annabel Howard for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.   Relevant links Bill Birtles, Stephen Dziedzic and Evan Wasuka, “China and Solomon Islands sign security pact, Beijing says it is 'not directed at any third party' amid Pacific influence fears”, ABC News, 20 April 2022: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-19/china-and-solomon-islands-sign-security-pact-says-chinese-foreig/101000530 Marise Payne and Zed Seselja, “Statement on Solomon Islands”, 25 March 2022: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/marise-payne/media-release/statement-solomon-islands Joanne Wallis and Czeslaw Tubilewicz, “Saying China ‘bought’ a military base in the Solomons is simplistic and shows how little Australia understands power in the Pacific”, The Conversation, 25 March 2022: https://theconversation.com/saying-china-bought-a-military-base-in-the-solomons-is-simplistic-and-shows-how-little-australia-understands-power-in-the-pacific-180020 Prime Minister - Transcript - Press Conference - Tonsley, SA, 20 April 2022: https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2022/04/20/prime-minister-transcript-press-conference-tonsley-sa China Solomon Islands Security Agreement and Blue Pacific InSecurities (Youtube video), 21 April 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBJjlc5hb2k David Crowe and Eryk Bagshaw, “China could have Solomon Islands military base within four weeks”, Sydney Morning Herald, 20 April 2022: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-could-have-solomon-islands-military-base-within-four-weeks-20220420-p5aevc.html Sam and Lawrence Freedman, “Comment is Freed” newsletter: https://samf.substack.com/ Bruno Macaes, “A war of world-building”, The City Journal, 3 April 2022: https://www.city-journal.org/a-war-of-world-building

Both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese delivered pre-election foreign policy speeches this month, and this episode analyses them together. Relevant links “An address by PM Scott Morrison”, Lowy Institute, 7 March 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/address-prime-minister-scott-morrison Scott Morrison, “Virtual address, AFR Business Summit”, 7 March 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/virtual-address-afr-business-summit “An address by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese”, Lowy Institute, 10 March 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/address-opposition-leader-anthony-albanese Graeme Wood, “Absolute power”, The Atlantic, 3 March 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/04/mohammed-bin-salman-saudi-arabia-palace-interview/622822/ “American Utopia” (trailer): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg4hcgtjDPc David Byrne, “One fine day” (live), Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/track/0mig4WeZbQ9FSxf50Ta9Eo

With the world watching in shock at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Allan and Darren describe how the crisis, and in particular the world’s response, are (and are not) causing them to reconsider their priors about how politics and international affairs works. Allan describes how impressed he has been with Europe’s response, while Darren is completely surprised at the speed and magnitude of the economic and financial sanctions imposed on Russia, in particular its central bank. Meanwhile, Allan reflects on the contingency of the Biden presidency, wondering how things would have been different had Donald Trump been president and what that says about the variability of the United States as a factor in world politics. Darren considers the responses of regional powers such as China, India and the ASEAN countries. Finally, they discuss early implications for Australia. Relevant links Anne Applebaum, “The impossible suddenly became possible”, The Atlantic, 2 March 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putins-war-dispelled-the-worlds-illusions/623335/ China Talk (podcast), “The new old cold war with Tooze and Klein”, 1 March 2022: https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/the-new-old-cold-war-with-tooze-and?s=r Adam Tooze, “Chartbook #89 Russia’s financial meltdown and the global dollar system”, 28 February 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-89-russias-financial-meltdown?s=r Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1987) “Power and interdependence revisited”, International Organization 41(4): 725-753. http://www.rochelleterman.com/ir/sites/default/files/Keohane%20Nye%201987.pdf Patrick McKenzie, “Moving money internationally”, Bits about money (newsletter), 2 March 2022: https://bam.kalzumeus.com/archive/moving-money-internationally/ Paul Kelly, “Morrison’s Mission: A Lowy Institute Paper”, Penguin Specials, February 2022: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/morrisons-mission-a-lowy-institute-paper-penguin-special-9780143778042 The Ezra Klein Show, “Can the West stop Russia by strangling its economy (with Adam Tooze), 1 March 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-adam-tooze.html

Australia will have a federal election in a few months, but Allan and Darren are sceptical that substantive foreign policy debates will feature during the campaign. Accordingly, this episode they decide to have their own debate to try to help listeners think through some of the important issues that will (probably) be ignored. They consider four central questions that will shape the future of Australia in the world, and try to offer their best arguments for and against each proposition. The questions are: Assuming a fixed funding envelope containing defence and foreign policy, Australia should shift resources and attention from the defence portfolio into foreign affairs. Australia needs a “reset” in its relations with Beijing and Canberra should be the one to initiate concessions. The specific proposal is that the Australian government adopt a policy of not commenting on China-specific human rights issues – Xinjiang, Tibet, and other domestic repressions. AUKUS, a scaled up 5 Eyes, and the Quad form the fundamentals of a new Australian architecture for engaging the world, and should be given priority over multilateralism. Assuming a fixed funding envelope, foreign policy resources should be shifted away from the South Pacific and into Southeast Asia. Most importantly, Allan and Darren do not necessarily offer their own views on the individual questions, but the best argument each can muster, whether it coincides with their opinions or not. Moreover, they deliberately swap sides across the questions and probably contradict themselves in the process. So, please, no quoting us out of context! The questions are framed in terms of concrete policy agendas where there could, in principle at least, be coherent and substantive disagreement. The questions avoid “more” propositions that posit “we need to do more” or “we need to spend more” since, by themselves, such propositions do not acknowledge the trade-offs. The questions also concern issues that relate as much as possible to the foreign and defence policy realms, and are not intimately linked with domestic issues that would unavoidably shape the debate. This means two major omissions – climate change and border protection. Once the ‘formal’ debate is over, Allan and Darren conclude by discussing the underlying themes that tie the questions together and which likely shape one’s perspective on Australia in the world. We bid farewell to Mitchell McIntosh and give our most heartfelt thanks for his contributions to making the podcast a success. We welcome Annabel Howard, and thank her for her help this week. Thanks also to Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links James Wise, “The Costs of Discounted Diplomacy” ASPI Strategic Insights Report #168, February 2022: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/costs-discounted-diplomacy Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue, Australia and Southeast Asia: Shaping a Shared Future (Canberra 2022): www.asiapacific4d.com Ian Bremmer, “The Technopolar Moment: How Digital Powers Will Reshape the Global Order”, Foreign Affairs, November/ December 2021: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-10-19/ian-bremmer-big-tech-global-order

Allan and Darren venture far outside their comfort zones this week to give some thoughts on the escalating crisis between Russia, Ukraine and NATO. This is an interesting and important issue because it brings together so many of the central questions in international relations. These include: the use of military coercion and other forms of deterrence; the behaviour of great powers, the role of diplomacy and signalling; the links between strategic and economic interests; the politics of the transatlantic relationship; the role of alliances; and the practical meaning of norms like ‘sovereignty’ and ‘self-determination’. While not all of these can be covered in depth in a single episode, they all inform Allan and Darren as they offer initial opinions of the strategic context and stakes involved. These events are important to Australia because of their potential impact on the international order and, in particular, America’s role in it. Along the way, the discussion covers the specific phenomenon of “spheres of influence”, the geoeconomic dimensions, and whether there is any scope at all for for multilateral organisations to contribute. The episode finishes by looking at how the Australian government has responded and thinking about what Beijing’s perspective might be.   Relevant links Adam Tooze, “Putin’s challenge to western hegemony – the 2022 edition”, Chartbook newsletter #68, 12 January 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to Ross Douthat, “How to retreat from Ukraine”, New York Times, 22 January 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-us-nato.html Francis Fukuyama, “Why Ukraine matters”, American Purpose, 24 January 2022: https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/why-ukraine-matters/ Rob Lee, “Moscow’s compellence strategy”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 18 January 2022: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/ Greg Earl, “Bitcoin vs the IMF, and other great expectations”, Lowy Interpreter, 27 January 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/bitcoin-vs-imf-and-other-great-expectations Plain English podcast, “The Biggest Losers of the Streaming Wars: ESPN, Movie Theatres, Peacock, and More”, 18 January 2022: https://www.theringer.com/2022/1/18/22888915/the-biggest-losers-of-the-streaming-wars-espn-movie-theaters-peacock-and-more   (Other interesting readings, in chronological order) Tyler Cowen, “What Will Putin Do Next? Game Theory Offers Some Clues”, Bloomberg, 19 January 2022: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-19/what-will-putin-do-next-time-for-some-game-theory “What would a Ukraine conflict look like” Rachman Review Podcast, 20 January 2022: https://overcast.fm/+2IlRysJbY Edward Fishman and Chris Miller, “The Russia Sanctions That Could Actually Stop Putin”, Politico, 21 January 2022: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/01/21/russia-sanctions-stop-putin-energy-markets-us-invasion-527524 Noah Smith, “Why is Ukraine such an economic failure”, Noahpinion newsletter, 23 January 2022: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-is-ukraine-such-an-economic-failure Fiona Hill, “Putin Has the U.S. Right Where He Wants It”, New York Times, 24 January 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html?referringSource=articleShare Michael Kofman, “Putin’s wager in Russia’s standoff with the west”, War on the Rocks, 24 January 2022: https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/ Daniel Drezner, “On deterring Russia”, Washington Post, 26 January 2022: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/01/26/deterring-russia/ Center for Defense Strategies, “How likely is large-scale war in Ukraine?”, The Kyiv Independent, 29 January 2022: https://kyivindependent.com/national/center-for-defense-strategies-how-probable-is-large-scale-war-in-ukraine-analysis/ Kyle Wilson, “Putin’s NATO power play stirs disquiet among Russia’s security elite”, ASPI Strategist, 29 January 2022: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/putins-nato-power-play-stirs-disquiet-among-russias-security-elite/

For their first episode in 2022, Allan and Darren look back over the past 12 months, starting with the international landscape and then focusing on Australia. First up, what big lesson did 2021 teach them? Interestingly, both focus on the United States in their answers--but how much is domestic dysfunction in the US actually affecting Biden’s foreign policy? Second, did the world’s experience with COVID-19 over the past year affect any of the major trends in international affairs? While at the end of 2020 there seemed to be a clear dividing line between ‘competent’ and ‘incompetent’ government responses, that distinction appears far less clear a year later. Third, what other notable trends emerged or crystallised across the year? For Allan, signs of a reversal of the long period called “the great convergence” are quite concerning, while for Darren the big picture structural trends are mostly unchanged.  The same questions are asked about Australia. Allan (cheekily?) describes 2021 as Australia’s response to a ‘fear of abandonment’, while Darren is interested in how the change in US administration affected foreign policy rhetoric from the Morrison government. Looking forward to 2022, both Allan and Darren offer both expectations and hopes for the coming year, internationally and for Australia. Both expect that 2022 will be a calmer and more stable year--how quickly might they be proven wrong? On that cheerful note, a happy new year to all! Relevant links COVID-19: Make it the Last Pandemic by The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness & Response, May 2021: https://theindependentpanel.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/COVID-19-Make-it-the-Last-Pandemic_final.pdf Anne Applebaum, “The kleptocrats next door”, The Atlantic, 8 December 2021: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/american-kleptocracy-kleptopia-united-states-dirty-money/620852/ Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright, Aftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order (St Martin’s Press, 2021): https://www.brookings.edu/books/aftershocks-pandemic-politics-and-the-end-of-the-old-international-order/ Anthea Roberts and Nicolas Lamp, Six Faces of Globalization: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why It Matters (Harvard University Press, 2021): https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674245952