Ep. 104: 20th Party Congress; export controls; Australia-Japan

After a month away, Allan and Darren try to make sense of a big month of news. They start with the Chinese Community Party’s 20th Party Congress, where President Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented 3rd term as leader, and (somewhat more surprisingly) was completely successful in elevating loyalists to the Party’s inner leadership circle. Is China just a ‘normal’ authoritarian country now?

Next, in what is arguably the most significant policy decision affecting US-China relations in decades, the Biden Administration has imposed sweeping new controls on the export of semiconductors and other advanced technologies to China. These are perceived to be ‘force multipliers’ and thus necessary to curtail China’s military development. The issue is that they are also widely used in commercial technologies, and Beijing will thus perceive this as economic “containment”. Allan talks through the implications for Australia and Darren offers his cost/benefit analysis of the policy.

Finally, the past month has also been extremely busy in Australian foreign policy! Allan and Darren opt to focus on Japanese PM Kishida’s visit to Australia and the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation that resulted. Allan explains the history of bilateral cooperation, while Darren uses the Declaration to (begin to) give some form to a theory of Australian foreign policy under the new government.

We thank Atikah Mekki for audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.

Relevant links

Scott Waldron, Darren J. Lim, Victor Ferguson, “Exploring the Domestic Foundations of Chinese Economic Sanctions: The Case of Australia”, China Brief 22(18), October 4, 2022: https://jamestown.org/program/exploring-the-domestic-foundations-of-chinese-economic-sanctions-the-case-of-australia/

Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies (forthcoming): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377

Andrew Nathan, “China’s changing of the guard: Authoritarian resilience”, Journal of democracy 14(1), 2003: https://www.cecc.gov/sites/chinacommission.house.gov/files/documents/hearings/2004/CECC%20Hearing%20Testimony%20-%20Andrew%20Nathan%20additional%20PDF%20-%206.3.04.pdf

Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at the Special Competitive Studies Project Global Emerging Technologies Summit, 16 September 2022: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/09/16/remarks-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-at-the-special-competitive-studies-project-global-emerging-technologies-summit/

Darren Lim and Victor Ferguson, “Conscious decoupling: The technology security dilemma”, China Dreams (China Story Yearbook 2019): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3484171

Zack Cooper, “he fundamental tension in Biden’s national security strategy”, Channel News Asia, 29 October 2022: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/us-biden-national-security-strategy-russia-china-asia-3030556

Isabella Keith, “11 November 2022: The Week in Australian Foreign Affairs”, Australian Outlook, 11 November 2022: https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/11-november-2022-the-week-in-australian-foreign-affairs/

Australia-Japan Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, 22 October 2022: https://www.dfat.gov.au/countries/japan/australia-japan-joint-declaration-security-cooperation

Anthony Albanese and Kishida Fumio, Opening remarks – Australia Japan Leaders’ Meeting, 22 October 2022: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/opening-remarks-australia-japan-leaders-meeting

Everything everywhere all at once (film): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_Everywhere_All_at_Once

Michael Wesley, “The war in Ukraine: implications for Asia”, Lowy Interpreter, 28 October 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/war-ukraine-implications-asia

George Packer, “Ukrainians are defending the values Americans claim to hold”, The Atlantic, 6 September 2022: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/10/ukraine-invasion-civilian-volunteers-survival/671241/

Jason Bordoff and Meghan O’Sullivan, “Green upheaval: The new geopolitics of energy”, Foreign Affairs Jan/Fen 2022: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-11-30/geopolitics-energy-green-upheaval

ChinaTalk podcast (on export controls, see episodes on 11 Oct and 4 Nov)

Trade Talks podcast, Ep 170, “National security, semiconductors, and the US move to cut off China”, 2 November 2022: https://tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/170-national-security-semiconductors-and-the-us-move-to-cut-off-china/

The Prince (podcast), Bonus: 20th party congress, 31 October 2022: https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2022/10/31/bonus-20th-party-congress