Bayesianism, the doctrine that it's always rational to represent our beliefs in terms of probabilities, dominates the intellectual world, from decision theory to the philosophy of science. But does it make sense to quantify our beliefs about such ineffable things as scientific theories or the future? And what separates empty prophecy from legitimate prediction? David Deutsch is a British physicist at the University of Oxford, and is widely regarded as the father of quantum computing. He is the author of The Fabric of Reality (1997) and The Beginning of Infinity (2011). Full episode transcript available at: thejspod.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

William Dalrymple is an acclaimed historian and writer. Show notes available at: josephnoelwalker.com/138-afghanistanSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Richard Holden is Professor of Economics at UNSW. Steven Hamilton is an Assistant Professor of Economics at The George Washington University. Full transcript available at: josephnoelwalker.com/holden-hamiltonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ole Peters is a physicist and a Fellow at the London Mathematical Laboratory. Show notes available at: josephnoelwalker.com/136-ergodicitySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Sandel teaches political philosophy at Harvard University, where he is the Anne T. and Robert M. Bass Professor of Government Theory. His course “Justice” is the first Harvard course to be made freely available online and on television and has been viewed by tens of millions of people around the world.Full transcript available at: josephnoelwalker.com/michael-sandelSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Graham Allison is an American political scientist and the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government Harvard University.Full transcript available at: josephnoelwalker.com/graham-allisonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Niall Ferguson is one of the world's most renowned historians. He is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. He is the author of sixteen books, including most recently Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe.Full transcript available at: josephnoelwalker.com/niall-fergusonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Hewson is a former Australian politician and was leader of the Liberal Party from 1990 to 1994.Full transcript available at: josephnoelwalker.com/john-hewsonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Kay is one of Britain's leading economists.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Horgan is a science journalist and Director of the Center for Science Writings at the Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey. He was senior writer at Scientific American from 1986-1997 and is the author of the bestselling book The End of Science.Full transcript available at: josephnoelwalker.com/horganSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.