The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Tariffs stormed back into the headlines this week as the pause on ‘Liberation Day’ levies expired with a flurry of warnings about steep rate hikes unless deals are struck by 1st August. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the implications, while Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard provides the view from Beijing. They also explore with David Wilder why inflation is a risk in the US but deflation looms in China, and what policymakers are (and aren’t) doing to fix it.Also on the show: As warnings mount over AI-driven job losses, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood separates hype from reality and explains what’s happening now in labour markets, and what the future may hold.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Data: US-China Trade ReroutingRead: Tackling Chinese overcapacity will require demand-side stimulusRead: Fears about AI-driven job losses are overdoneRead: The economic and market impact of AIUpcoming Drop-Ins

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including:What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff pause approaches expiryWhether the US and EU can strike a trade deal in timeWhy China is central to the US–Vietnam trade agreementWhat’s really troubling about the passage of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax billWhat moves in gilt and sterling markets this week revealed about the UK Labour Party’s fiscal credibilityAlso on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis discusses her new in-depth report on the outlook for global trade amid rising tariffs. She explains why her forecasts challenge the narrative of deglobalisation and also shares highlights from our latest Global Economic Outlook, including China’s looming slowdown and India’s relative outperformance.Analysis and data referenced in this episode:Data: China-US Trade ReroutingData: Tariff Impact ModelRead: What do tariffs mean for global trade?Data: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor

A ceasefire in the Middle East. A US-China deal. Relatively benign dataflow. The S&P 500 back at a record high. But are things really looking up? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk to David Wilder about fragilities under the surface of the global economy. He discusses worldwide fiscal risks, why there’s less to see with that US-China deal and those divisions on the FOMC. Also on the show, BYD and DeepSeek may be in the spotlight, but their rise reflects deeper structural flaws in China’s economy. They’re a sign of economic success, but also of the growing distortions in the government’s industrial strategy – weaknesses that are increasingly evident in China’s dismal productivity data. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams has been delving into the details of Xi Jinping’s industrial roadmap and the productivity data to tell David what this all says about China’s economic outlook.Events and analysis referenced in this podcast:Read: China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivityRoundtable: One year on: Is the UK government boosting growth?Read: Fed independence not a concern for markets, yetRead: APAC Commercial Property Outlook: Values to fall as region’s markets struggle to recoverData: APAC Commercial Property

After Israel and Iran agreed to stop fighting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley are on this special episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss what follows, including why oil prices are set to remain under pressure as the market attention shifts back to fundamentals, and the impact of other notable uncertainties such as the fiscal bill making its way through Congress and the looming expirations of Trump’s tariff pauses.Analysis referenced in this episodeOil market fundamentals snap back into focusCommodities Outlook: Instability and tariffs cloud otherwise bearish outlookIsrael-Iran and economic risk in a world of radical uncertainty

What’s going to happen in this Middle East crisis? The fact that no one knows is the key point for investors grappling with an exceptionally fluid situation.In this week’s podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores the scenarios we've outlined so clients can assess how the Israel-Iran conflict could unfold. He also draws a distinction between risk and uncertainty – a critical distinction that matters when trying to understand the implications of global crises like this one.Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, joins to explain how markets have been reacting and what kind of volatility to expect as decisions near on US involvement in Israeli strikes, the imposition of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, and a crucial vote on US tax cuts in the Senate.Also in this episode, Kiran Raichura, our Chief Commercial Real Estate Economist, previews our new Asia-Pacific CRE coverage, explains why we’re expanding now, what clients can expect, and what our early analysis says about the region’s investment recovery.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Read: Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenariosKey Issue: Iran-Israel conflictDrop-In: Russia’s rising macro and market risks as war drags onRoundtable: Opportunities and risks in the shadow of US trade protectionism

Following Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets, and Iranian counterstrikes, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing lays out what investors should be watching for across macro and markets. Among other issues, Neil also explains:Why – as things stand – this situation shouldn’t influence the Fed meeting in the coming week;  What the latest inflation data signal about how tariffs are working their way through the global economy; Whether a 'shadow' Fed chairman would tackle Donald Trump's problems with the current incumbent What to make of the past week’s round of US-China talks in London.Also on the show, Commodities Economist Hamad Hussain talks about China’s stranglehold on global rare earths supply, how the demand picture will change in the wake of the latest US-China agreement and why Western governments haven’t done more to find alternatives to Chinese sellers. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:The Israel-Iran escalation and global marketsIsrael’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impactDrop-In: Israel-Iran military strikes – Assessing the global economic implicationsFiring Powell would just be the beginning of the Fed's endLimited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are lowRare earths “deal” won’t be the final wordCapital Economics Events

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the latest data to assess the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs, including signs that the effects of tariff front-running are now unwinding. He also discusses how businesses are navigating the ongoing uncertainty and why the Bank of England is trailing the ECB in cutting interest rates.Also on the show, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood explores what NATO’s proposed push to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP could mean for economic growth, and the fiscal constraints that may stand in the way. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Read: A European defence revolution?Read: Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth?Drop-In: India Outlook – Can the economy and markets continue to outperform through 2025?Drop-In: How the UK’s economic backdrop is shaping its fiscal choicesCapital Economics Awards

After another week of twists and turns in the Trump trade policy roll-out, Stephen Brown from our US team and Jonas Goltermann from our Markets team are on the show to talk about what comes next. In their conversation with David Wilder they touch on:Where tariff rates are likely to end up, even as “reciprocal” tariffs work their way through the courts;How worried the bond market really is about the US fiscal picture;If the US economy is continuing to show resilience in the face of higher tariffs;Whether the post-Liberation day rally in equities has run its course.Also on the show, Justin Chaloner, our Head of Data Economics, explains what our data is showing about the impact of tariffs on global trade and highlights a new data tool that tracks how Chinese exporters are funnelling goods through lower-tariff economies.  Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRead: Revising back up our forecast for the S&P 500Read: Is US equity exceptionalism back for good?Capital Economics Data ExplorerRead: The implications of lower quality UK economic data

Donald Trump jolted markets on Friday with a threat to slap steep tariffs on the EU. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing jumped back on the podcast to join David Wilder and unpack whether this is classic brinkmanship – or something more serious. In the original recording, Neil also discusses recent bond market moves following the House’s approval of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill, and reflects on the enduring lessons from Liz Truss’s chaotic spell as UK Prime Minister.Also on the show:Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory dissect the UK macro outlook and what's gone wrong with the official data.Hamad Hussain from our Commodities team explains why structural forces are setting gold up for new record highs later this year.Analysis and events referenced in this podcastData: Tariff Impact Modelhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-modelRead: Trump threat of 50% tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/trump-threat-50-tariffsData: Global Trade Stress Monitor https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/global-trade-stress-monitorMarkets Drop-In: Europe’s outperformance vs the state of US exceptionalismhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/markets-drop-europes-outperformance-vs-state-us-exceptionalismRead: Gold prices to take a breather before the next leg uphttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/gold-prices-take-breather-next-legCommodities Drop-In: OPEC+ talks, gold’s pullback, metals and tariffs and morehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-opec-talks-golds-pullback-metals-and-tariffs-and-more

Things are looking up after the US and China de-escalated their trade war, but is the global economy off the hook? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder why the tariff situation is looking brighter, but also identifies the key flashpoints to watch in the coming weeks. John Higgins, our Chief Markets Economist, is also on the show to talk about the financial markets angle to this turnaround in global sentiment. He sees more upside for US equities, even after the notable gains of recent weeks, and isn’t convinced that investors have set themselves up for a fall. Plus, following the launch of our ‘Future of Europe’ series, Franziska Palmas discuss how Germany’s economic outlook is looking a bit more optimistic, but also why the bloc’s biggest economy will continue to struggle – and what that means for boosters of the idea of the EU becoming a third geo-economic pillar alongside the US and China. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Global Trade Stress MonitorCapital Daily: US big tech is back … but not at China’s expenseCapital Daily: Back to the future?Capital Economics EventsData: Global Markets ForecastsThe Future of Europe