After another week of twists and turns in the Trump trade policy roll-out, Stephen Brown from our US team and Jonas Goltermann from our Markets team are on the show to talk about what comes next. In their conversation with David Wilder they touch on:
- Where tariff rates are likely to end up, even as “reciprocal” tariffs work their way through the courts;
- How worried the bond market really is about the US fiscal picture;
- If the US economy is continuing to show resilience in the face of higher tariffs;
- Whether the post-Liberation day rally in equities has run its course.
Also on the show, Justin Chaloner, our Head of Data Economics, explains what our data is showing about the impact of tariffs on global trade and highlights a new data tool that tracks how Chinese exporters are funnelling goods through lower-tariff economies.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode
Read: Revising back up our forecast for the S&P 500
Read: Is US equity exceptionalism back for good?
Capital Economics Data Explorer
Read: The implications of lower quality UK economic data
The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics