Complexity and Systemic Risk: Hilary Term Seminar Series 2010 cover image

Complexity and Systemic Risk: Hilary Term Seminar Series 2010

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Mar 5, 2010 • 60min

Cooperation, Norms and Conflict: Towards Simulating the Foundations of Society

Explore the complexities of social systems and the factors that influence cooperation, norms, and conflict. From studying interactions and network formation to the impact of social inequality and globalization, discover how social systems transform and break down. Professor Dirk Helbing delves into game-theoretical descriptions of cooperation, conflict, norms, and more, offering insights into social dynamics and systemic risks.
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Feb 25, 2010 • 1h 12min

Predicting the Behaviour of Techno-Social Systems: How Informatics and Computing Help to Fight Off Global Pandemics

We live in an increasingly interconnected world of 'techno-social' systems, where infrastructures composed of different technological layers are interoperating within the social component that drives their use and development. The multi-scale nature and complexity of these networks are crucial features in understanding and managing them. In the last decade advances in performance in computer technology, data acquisition and complex networks theory allow the generation of sophisticated simulations on supercomputer infrastructures to anticipate the spreading pattern of a pandemic, predict the traffic pattern of successful web sites or provides insight and recommendations in the case of natural or intentional disruptive events. In particular I will use the example of the current H1N1 pandemic and present computing tools with the ambition of anticipating trends, evaluating risks and eventually managing future public policies in real time. Delivered by Professor Alessandro Vespignani: Professor of Informatics, Indiana University Bloomington, USA.
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Feb 18, 2010 • 1h 1min

Ocean Circulation and Climate: Observing and Modelling the Global Ocean

A physicist and physical oceanographer discusses the challenges of predicting ocean circulation dynamics, exploring the impact of eddies on glacial cycles and the Gulfstream shutdown. The podcast delves into ocean system complexity, advancements in observation methods, and experimental models unraveling ocean dynamics. The discussion also touches on ocean overturning circulation, climate implications, and the difficulties in predicting abrupt changes in ocean and atmospheric temperatures.
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4 snips
Feb 17, 2010 • 1h 5min

Anticipating Future Complexity: Are Systems Such as Cities Getting More Complex?

Cities are becoming more complex with new technologies allowing for different interactions. Behavioural changes in modern cities are greater than in medieval times. The podcast explores the evolution of urban models, challenges in long-term city modeling, analyzing travel modes in London, data visualization tools for understanding city operations, and integrating theoretical approaches for city complexity.
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Feb 5, 2010 • 1h 53min

Growth, Innovation, and the Pace of Life from Cells and Ecosystems to Cities and Corporations; Are They Sustainable?

Growth, Innovation, and the Pace of Life from Cells and Ecosystems to Cities and Corporations; Are They Sustainable? Are cities and companies "just" very large organisms? They grow, metabolise, evolve and adapt; however, almost all cities survive, whereas all companies die. A quantitative, predictive, unifying framework for addressing such questions and understanding the generic structure, dynamics and life history of social and biological systems will be developed. It is based on general properties of the networks that sustain such complex systems and is inspired by the simplicity manifested by extraordinary "universal" scaling laws governing almost all characteristics of cities, companies and organisms. Examples discussed will include vascular systems, growth, cancer, aging and mortality, sleep, and evolutionary rates. When extended to cities and companies the theory shows why, in contrast to biology which is dominated by economies of scale, the overall pace of life, including rates of innovation, systematically accelerates. This has dramatic implications for growth, development and sustainability: innovation and wealth creation that fuel cities, corporations and economies, if left unchecked, lead to fatal singularities that potentially sow the seeds for their inevitable collapse. Delivered by Professor Geoffrey West: Distinguished Professor, Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico, USA.
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Jan 22, 2010 • 1h 2min

Stability and Complexity in Model Banking Systems

The recent banking crises have made it clear that increasingly complex strategies for managing risk in individual banks and investment funds (pension funds, etc) has not been matched by corresponding attention to overall systemic risks. Simple mathematical caricatures of 'banking ecosystems', which capture some of the essential dynamics and which have some parallels (along with significant differences) with earlier work on stability and complexity in ecological food webs, have interesting implications. In particular, strategies that tend to minimise risk for individual banks can - under certain circumstances - maximise the probability of systemic failure. This talk will first sketch these models and the ensuing conclusions. Delivered by Professor Lord Robert May of Oxford: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford.

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