Anticipating Future Complexity: Are Systems Such as Cities Getting More Complex?
Feb 17, 2010
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Cities are becoming more complex with new technologies allowing for different interactions. Behavioural changes in modern cities are greater than in medieval times. The podcast explores the evolution of urban models, challenges in long-term city modeling, analyzing travel modes in London, data visualization tools for understanding city operations, and integrating theoretical approaches for city complexity.
Cities are evolving to be more complex due to increased interaction options among residents.
Technological advancements allow individuals to reshape their time and space, leading to diverse reactions.
Modern cities experience greater behavioral changes compared to medieval times, reflecting growing complexity.
Deep dives
Overview of the Podcast
The podcast delves into the complexities and systemic risks related to urban cities, focusing on the development of a spatial and PLEXD model for Greater London. The speaker highlights the shift in urban models from static to dynamic, emphasizing the importance of understanding and predicting future urban landscapes.
Economic and Energy Focus in the Model
The model is being enhanced to incorporate a stronger economic and energy focus by integrating travel cost functions with wages, travel costs, and housing costs. This approach allows for a more comprehensive analysis of how economic factors influence transportation and residential patterns.
Population Site Model for Flood Prediction
A population site model is employed to forecast population distribution in flood-prone areas, particularly addressing the potential impact of climate change on flooding risk in vulnerable regions like near the Thames. The model helps visualize population shifts and prepares for potential flood scenarios.
Scenario Analysis with Transport Cost Changes
The podcast discusses scenario analysis by altering road travel costs by 100% to simulate shifts in modal split and population distribution. By increasing road travel costs, significant changes in transportation preferences and residential patterns are observed, leading to population concentration in central areas.
Challenges of Integrating Different Modeling Perspectives
The integration of diverse modeling perspectives, including symbolic and iconic models, poses an intellectual challenge in comprehensively understanding urban complexities. The need to blend various theoretical understandings and models to capture the multifaceted nature of urban systems is highlighted as a key challenge in urban modeling and forecasting.
Cities are getting more complex as their residents acquire more and more ways in which they can interact with one another. New technologies enable individuals to repackage their time and space in countless different combinations, and the flexibility afforded by such innovations makes possible many new ways in which individuals might react to this complexity. Behavioural change is considerably greater in the modern city than the medieval. Delivered by Professor Mike Batty: Director, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London.
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