The Lowdown from Nick Cohen

Nick Cohen talks to former Conservative MP and minister Dr Phillip Lee about the Brexit Omertà that is killing the Conservative Party. Dr Lee, now a practising GP, blames the party's spectacular demise partly on its failure to call out Nigel Garage and the Reform Party for the failure of Brexit and the dire consequences. The elephant in the roomPhillip Lee that although few people want to talk about Brexit, they are prepared to talk about the many problems either caused or exacerbated by Brexit. He says, "Look at the boats thing... when we were members of the European Union and Dublin protocols, we could turn these people around to where they'd first entered the European Union. Okay. That was what we were able to do. Now that we're outside the European Union, we can't turn these boats around once they're on the beach."He adds, "Now, how many people in this country actually realise that Brexit has made, dealing with the boats coming across the channel harder? I suspect very, very few people understand that factual point. So why isn't the Labour government saying that? Because they don't want to open up the discussion of. European Union membership being positive."Government by focus group is wrong Phillip Lee asserts that UK political parties mistakenly and all to frequently delegate their political judgment to poorly informed focus groups, saying "we rely upon focus groups from people who are often ill-informed...It is just a fact. They don't understand the complexity of trading in negotiations. They don't understand the complexity of just-in-time manufacturing, they don't understand the challenges of geopolitics or whatever. The reason in great part is not because they can't, it's because they've gotta get the kids to school. They've gotta put food on the table. They've got busy, busy lives. They're being stretched, left, right, and centre to care for elderly and everything else..." He warns, That just takes us down the path, which we are now too far down almost, of having a country that's not fit for purpose and not sustainable, not tenable. In fact, in the medium term, we have to be, we've gotta turn that around. We've gotta start to get to a situation where our democracy people are more informed."Public is being manipulated all over again on Brexit Phillip Lee argues that Nigel Farage counters the obvious failure of Brexit with the absurd claim that it just hadn't been "done right". He adds," Farage is cleverly tapping into the fact that nothing's changed. In fact, everything's got worse. But instead of people concluding it's got worse because of Brexit, he twists it as...t's not the Brexit that people voted for."Well, the Brexit that people voted for was never going to happen again. People were lied to and manipulated, and I think until a political party that's got a chance of forming a government in this country is honest with people about this straightforward, informs them of the reality." Failure to be honest with the public could lead to Reform in power Phillip Lee says failure to treat the public as adults could lead to the disaster of Farage in Number 10, saying "It's just going in the path of Reform, isn't it? ... we're going to have our Trump moment and most of us are gonna have heads in our hands about it."Read all about it!Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK voting system is falling into disrepair and disreputeNick Cohen talks to the distinguished pollster and political commentator Peter Kellner @PeterKellner1 about the parlous state of British democracy and the UK's creaking and increasingly unfit-for-purpose First Past the Post voting system. Peter explains how First Past the Post (FPTP) has become problematic with increased party fragmentation and changing voter demographics. He explains how economic shifts, declining manufacturing industries, and changing education patterns have influenced class structures and voting patterns, with particular attention to how university education has impacted political loyalties. Peter and Nick examine the current state of political fragmentation and the challenges facing traditional parties like Labour and Conservatives, concluding with a discussion about potential electoral reform options and the evolving nature of British politics.British Democracy and Electoral ChallengesNick and Peter discussed the state of British democracy and the electoral system. They explored how the first-past-the-post system has become increasingly problematic with the rise of multiple political parties, leading to situations where governments can be formed with a small percentage of the overall vote.Class Structure and Political LoyaltiesPeter explaines that the decline of traditional manufacturing industries and the corresponding decrease in union membership have led to a shift in the class structure of Britain. He also noted that the strong family-based political loyalties of the past have diminished, contributing to the reduced influence of class in modern politics. Education is an important factor in political allegiance with university graduates more likely to be more liberal with a small "l", and more open, and much less likely to vote Conservative or Reform than non-graduates.Voter Motivations and Party LoyaltyPeter presents findings from a study on voter motivations, revealing that the primary reason voters support their party is that it is "better than the others," particularly for Labour and Conservative supporters. He noted that Labour and Conservative voters are more likely to give "consumer" reasons for their support, while Green and Reform voters are more likely to cite "devotee" reasons such as shared values or specific policies.Read all about it!Peter's Substack is Peter Kellner's must-read and free to access Substack column on the state of UK politics. Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

SummaryThe discussion between Nick Cohen and US-based journalist and commentator Ben Cohen centres on the implications of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal for Donald Trump, including his alleged involvement with Epstein and how Trump exploited conspiracy theories like QAnon to gain political power. The conversation explored Trump's ability to control the narrative and create distractions, while examining the impact of conspiracy theories on American politics and Trump's base of supporters. Ben Cohen shared insights about Trump's declining influence among his supporters and discussed the potential political implications of unsealed files related to Trump, including the challenges of dealing with misinformation and disinformation in American politics.QAnon and the MAGA conspiracy maniaBen and Nick discuss the impact of conspiracy theories, particularly QAnon, on American politics and Trump's base. Ben estimates that about 30% of Trump's supporters leaned towards QAnon beliefs, which included the idea of a corrupt "deep state." They agreed that while conspiracy theories were not the sole reason for Trump's 2024 victory, they played a significant role in his support and were part of the justification for the assault on Congress.Misinformation in American PoliticsBen and Nick discuss the challenges of dealing with misinformation and disinformation, particularly in the context of American politics and media. Ben explained his experience writing about Candace Owens, a far-right provocateur, and the unique American phenomenon of figures like her gaining attention through sensationalism and lies. They explored the impact of such figures on public discourse and the normalisation of misinformation.Trump's Narrative Control and Media ImpactNick and Ben discuss the implications of the Epstein files, which reportedly contain damaging information about Donald Trump. They agree that Trump's ability to control the narrative and create distractions, such as the Obama-Russia conspiracy theory, has allowed him to avoid serious consequences for his actions. But the Epstein scandal is blowing up in Trump's face and may well yet doom his scandal-hit presidency.Read all about it!Read Ben's The Banter Substacks here and listen to his podcasts here.Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

All the evidence points to Genocide in GazaNick Cohen talks to author and former Foreign Office diplomat Arthur Snell about the ongoing Middle East crisis, focusing on the devastating impact of the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023 and its consequences for the region. They explored the situation in Gaza, including concerns about potential genocide and the humanitarian crisis, as well as the implications of proposed resettlement plans and refugee outflows. The conversation also touched on the role of international actors, particularly Europe and the United States, in addressing the situation, and the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump's foreign policy regarding Israel and the Middle East.What's happening in Gaza is genocideArthur argues that Israel's actions against the Palestinian population in Gaza constitute genocide under the 1948 Genocide Convention. He examines the Israeli government's intent and capability and concludes that it is to make Gaza uninhabitable for Palestinians, noting the shift in Israeli public opinion after the October attacks. Arthur emphasises the challenges Israel faces in defeating Hamas without destroying the Gaza population.International Influence on Gaza TragedyArthur and Nick discuss the ongoing tragedy in Gaza, focusing on the role of international actors, particularly Europe and the United States, in addressing the situation. Arthur emphasises that while Europe has limited influence over Israel, there are mechanisms to pressure governments committing international crimes, such as sanctions and surveillance missions by the RAF. He also highlighted the involvement of companies like BCG in planning for ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Andrew questioned Europe's power to influence the situation, noting that only the United States, under Trump, has significant leverage over Netanyahu.Read all about it.Arthur Snell's substack column is Not all doom & his regular inciteful podcast is Behind the Lines. Arthur's first not fiction book is How Britain Broke the World: War, Greed and Blunders from Kosovo to Afghanistan, 1997-2022 .Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Read Nick's latest column, Can Europe resist Trump's gangsterism? Does it have the willpower to try? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nick Cohen & Professor Robert Wintemute discuss transgender rights and women's rights, exploring legal, medical, and societal implications of transgender issues. The conversation covered topics such as the evolving demands of the LGBTQ+ movement, challenges faced by transgender individuals in various settings, and the controversy surrounding medical treatments for gender dysphoria in minors.Transgender Rights vs. Women's Rights DebateNick talks to Robert, Professor of human rights law at King's College London, about transgender rights and women's rights. They discuss the controversy surrounding transgender issues in liberal media and academia, with Andrew noting that many people are afraid to speak out on the topic. Robert, author of Transgender Rights V. Women's Rights, provides a legal perspective on the debate, highlighting decisions against trans campaigners and the Supreme Court's ruling that trans women are not women for legal purposes.Transgender Rights and Societal TensionsRobert and Nick discuss the evolving demands of the LGBTQ+ movement, particularly focusing on the differences between LGBTQ+ and transgender rights. Robert highlights how transgender demands have shifted from seeking equal rights to requesting exemptions and changes to legal and medical systems, which he views as problematic.Transgender Rights and Social ImplicationsRobert and Nick also talk about the implications of removing sex from birth certificates and the challenges faced by transgender individuals, particularly in areas such as prisons, sports, and equal pay. Robert emphasised that while the number of transgender individuals may be small, the effects on women in specific situations can be distressing, and he highlights a case where a transgender athlete's participation raised fairness concerns.Gender Dysphoria Treatment BansRobert and Nick also tackle the controversial issue of medical treatment for gender dysphoria in minors, particularly focusing on the recent bans in Brazil and Argentina. They expressed concern about the lack of evidence supporting the effectiveness and safety of treatments like puberty blockers for young people, noting that many individuals eventually change their minds about their gender identity.Transgender Rights and Political RealitiesRobert argues that transgender rights activists need to align with political reality to avoid electing reactionary leaders like Donald Trump. He proposes a "tough love" approach for coexistence, which includes two concessions: transgender individuals should stop expecting others to validate their gender identity, and society should ensure no discrimination against individuals based on their appearance.Read all about it!Professor Wintermute is a lawyer, a trustee of @AllianceLGB and an author and co-author of books on same sex partnerships and sexual orientation and human rights. His latest book Transgender Rights vs Women's rights, From conflicts to co-existence, is now publishedNick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nick Cohen and commentator Nick Tyrone discuss the rise of the radicalised right in the UK and ask why the Conservatives won't fight against the extremists in their midst and party. Instead, some Tories are have buckled to the siren voices of intolerance and extremism. They are dragging their party further to the extremes by trying to outflank Nigel Farage & Reform on the right.Right wing extremism becomes ever more extremeNick Tyrone says, "We've come so far that Farage is starting to look relatively moderate compared to some of the stuff that's even happening within the conservative party now. That's how scary things have become."Nick adds, "I have my doubts that however much money you threw at it, that a sort of a party that was sort of Rupert Lowe shaped like, was sort of that right wing could actually succeed to a huge degree in Britain. ... you could do it in a boiling frog sort of a way. I think you could get a, a government elected that on a much more moderate platform that, so that kept turning up the dial and got more and more right wing and, and if that government was producing, you know, economic growth and was eliminating some of the bigger problems they got the NHS working, they would probably be given leeway to do some fairly terrible right wing stuff."Conservatives wont defend conservatism - inevitability of Jenrick leadershipNick says, "Robert Jenrick is going to be the conservative leader unless Jenrick jumps to reform, which I don't think he will, but I can't rule that out. Yeah, it's gonna be Jenrick. And again, it's that sort of thing. Well, what do the moderates do? And the answer seems to be not very much. And just sort of go along and hope somewhere along the line everything works out. I think Jenrick could take them further to the right than reform. and what happens when that happens? I don't know. I mean, I can say, well, I don't think that'll work."Possible malevolent force could take over the UKNick Tyrone says, "I can't really emphasise enough every time I come on how completely all over the place the Tories are and what a mess they are. So in the end it's totally possible that some real malevolent force could take hold in British politics."Read all about it!Nick Tyrone is an author, activist, policy advisor and commentator and keen observer of the Tory party whose Substack column as Neoliberal Centrist Dad - nick.tyrone.substack.com - is a must read for those of us desperate for the return of sanity to our national political discourse.Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nick Cohen and historian James Hawes discuss wide range of political topics, focusing primarily on British politics, Brexit, and the rise of right-wing populism. Discussions included the historical context and current state of the Conservative Party, the challenges faced by Labour and the SNP, and the potential long-term implications of demographic changes on political landscapes. James Hawes argues that only liberal populists can counter the threat posed by Nigel Farage and Reform.Brexit's Long-Term Consequences and FailuresJames and Nick discusses the long-term implications and failures of Brexit, highlighting how Farage and other Brexit advocates had been promoting the idea for decades. Both criticise the lack of accountability and the continued influence of Brexit supporters despite the project's evident failures. James expressed optimism for a pro-remain populist leader to challenge Brexit advocates directly, rather than relying on complex economic arguments. He also shared a conversation with a top UK insider predicting the UK's collapse by 2029 due to Keir Starmer's inability to address the mess left by the Tories & BrexitThe Tory Party pickleJames & Nick discuss the historical and current dire state of the Conservative Party, highlighting its long history of populism and sectarianism. They argue that the party's true nature is being revealed through its alignment with Farage and its anti-migrant stance, which James compares to 19th-century Tory behaviour.Farage's Rise and threat to the UKThe discussion focuses on British politics, particularly Farage's rise and the potential for a shift towards far-right governance. James argues that Farage success in England will re-energise the SNP & inevitably speed up the UK's break-up. Both express concern about the working-class appeal of Farage's populism and discuss the perception of left-wing politicians as communists by some conservatives.Demographic Shifts and Political ImplicationsThe discussion focused on demographic challenges and political implications, with Nick and James exploring how an aging population and ironically more financially secure voters are more likely to vote for Farage and his brand of nut-job populist extremism, while younger generations face difficulties accessing housing and other opportunities. James argues that a more liberal -leftist brand of populism - with policies such as I.D. cards and German-like tests for trades people - might help counter the poison and certain chaos of Farageism.Read all about it!James Hawes @jameshawes2 is a historian and author of a novel and books such as including The Shortest History of Germany and The Shortest History on EnglandNick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nick Cohen talks to Lowdown regular and Guardian columnist Rafael Behr about Labour's struggle with the new international Trump disorder, its communications crisis, perceived serial bungling by Sir Keir Starmer and the party's perceived drift.Starmer struggling with Trump's betrayal of the WestIn anticipation of a possible US strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, Rafael & Nick discuss the growing decay of the so-called US-UK "special relationship". Rafael does not believe that Sir Keir Starmer grasps "the sheer enormity of what is happening." He adds "I think he's ultimately a very small "c" conservative person who thinks you can just fix things by sort of just getting through, making do mending sort of DIY around the status quo and hoping that that process will just see you through."Trump's Putin fanboys are nothing newRafael reminds Nick that the American First tradition was "very sympathetic of Hitler or, wanted to keep out of the second World War." He adds, They developed conspiracy theories that Roosevelt was really responsible for Pearl Harbour and all that kind of underworld, which never went away in America, is, is now back, is now back with Trump." Like America First, Trump's MAGA are in a world of where Putin apologists & conspiracy crackpots are now right at the heart of power in Washington.Clueless Kemi & her hapless party are all at sea Rafael has completely lost her bearings of where votable right ring thinking is current/y, and even Trump was "...not so stupid as to do the sort of Kemi Badenoch trying to out Reform Reform by being in the sort of mad slightly conspiracy theory, tinge, racist, digital silos that reform paddle around in."Keir Starmer is an analog prime minister in a digital ageRafael is convinced that Starmer doesn't have a fully worked out concept of the British economy. Labour has major communications problems and Raf is picking up murmurings among Party figures of possibly replacing him. "he would've been a great Prime minister in 1968 or 1949, " says Rafael, adding, "he's a fantastically well qualified analog prime minister!"Read all about it!Rafael's recent book Politics: A Survivor's Guide: How to stay engaged without getting enraged is published by W.F.Howes Ltd and available at Amazon and in all good bookshops.Support the show You can also read his wonderful columns in the Guardian. His X handle is @rafaelbehrNick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Authoritarian Tactics in Western DemocraciesNick Cohen and Ben Cohen discuss the tactics of authoritarian leaders, comparing them to successful torturers who exploit vulnerabilities in Western democracies. Nick emphasises that liberal democracies often turn a blind eye to illegal immigrants due to the logistical challenges of enforcing strict immigration laws, which he argued is a weakness that authoritarian leaders like Trump exploit to consolidate power. Ben agreed with Nick's analysis. They also briefly touched on the importance of avoiding formal conversations by not reviewing questions in advance.Immigration Policy and Political PolarisationBen discusses the complex dynamics of immigration policy and its role in American politics, particularly focusing on how Trump's immigration policies and the left's response are contributing to a polarised environment. Ben argues that the left's protests against ICE raids lack strategic direction and may inadvertently play into Trump's hands by validating his claim of a national emergency. He expresses concern that this situation could serve as a dry run for Trump's potential re-election strategy in 2028, where he might use similar tactics to claim the need for extended military involvement to "save the Republic."Left's Ineffective Fascism Fight StrategyBen talks about the current political climate in the United States, focusing on the lack of hope for a free and fair election in 2028 due to insufficient reforms on the left and the resistance's inability to address political realities such as immigration. They agreed that calling the government fascist is appropriate, but the left's overuse of the term has made it meaningless. Ben expressed concern that the left's approach to fighting fascism is ineffective, as they have alienated many people by incorrectly labelling others as fascists in the past.Trump's Impact on American DemocracyBen describes the current state of American democracy under Trump's presidency, expressing concerns about the erosion of democratic norms and the potential for further authoritarian tendencies. They highlighted the lack of checks and balances, comparing the situation to historical examples of weak democracies, and warned about the dangers of a Trump victory in 2028. They also touched on the role of Trump's base, his control over the Republican Party, and the implications for the future of American democracy.Media Polarisation and Political DivideBen and Nick discuss the current state of media and politics, particularly focusing on the challenges posed by the "woke left" and the rise of authoritarianism on the right. They agreed that many journalists and politicians are prioritising audience capture and contrarianism over principles, leading to a lack of meaningful debate and criticism, especially on the right in Britain. Ben expressed concern about the direction of the country under Trump, highlighting immigration raids as a potential indicator of future authoritarian measures, and called for a unified resistance from the left.Read all about it!Read Ben's The Banter Substacks here and listen to his podcasts here.Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Global Political Challenges and PredictionsNick Cohen and John Sweeney discuss the current state of global politics, focusing on the challenges faced by powerful leaders like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. They highlight the recent audacious drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian strategic bomber fleets, which John Sweeney compared to calling out the "Emperor in the Kremlin with no clothes." John expresses caution about predicting the downfall of dictators, citing his past experiences with Mugabe,Putin's Downfall and Ukraine's WarJohn and Nick discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, focusing on Vladimir Putin's leadership and the potential for his overthrow. Sweeney shares Owen's argument that there are 3 tests before Putin's downfall: the lack of a viable successor, a crashing economy, and a competent government.Putin's Influence on Trump John also talks about the potential influence of Putin on Trump, referencing the Steele dossier (written by former Mi6 officer Christopher Steele.) They agree that while the dossier's claims about Trump's personal behaviour could not be proven, the allegations about Putin's intervention in the 2016 US election were accurate. John highlights the importance of understanding the geopolitical implications of Ukraine's drone attack on Russia, emphasising the need for a realistic approach to global politics.Trump's Waning Influence and ChallengesJohn talks about the complex relationship between Trump and Putin, highlighting a potential compromise involving Trump's authoritarian leanings and shared worldview with Putin, despite effective sanctions against Russia that only Congress can repeal. He explained that Trump's chaotic tariff policy and proposed fiscal measures are damaging the real American economy, reducing his political capital to influence events in Ukraine. They also discuss Trump's mini-me Nigel Farage and Reform councils taking down the Ukrainian flagUkraine's War & British PoliticsJohn discusses the military situation in Ukraine, noting that while Russian drones are causing problems for Ukraine, the country's huge size means it can retreat significantly before the situation becomes catastrophic. He expressed optimism that Ukraine will win the war, citing the support from the West.Read all about it!John @johnsweeneyroar is a distinguished broadcaster and author. His latest book is Murder in the Gulag the explosive account of how Putin poisoned Alexei Navalny. Another of John's most recent must reads is best-seller on Putin, The Killer in the Kremlin, published by Headline Press.Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.