The Lowdown from Nick Cohen

Can the Centre hold in France?Nick Cohen discusses the dire state of French politics with journalist, author & academic Agnès Poirier. They discuss the chaos of politics in France over the last years which has seen 4 prime ministers come and go in barely a year. Extremists on the far right and far left are becoming ever more dominant - their voices ever more shrill.In 2017, Emmanuelle Macron became the youngest man since Napoloeon to head the French state and to become President of France, voted in off the back of his own centrist En Marche movement. In 18 months' time, Macron's second term and presidential career come to an end. And there are growing fears about what next presidential elections of May 2027 could herald a major extremist upset, as disappointed French political opinion seems to rush to the extremes of either the hard left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon - defacto leader of La France Insoumise - or Marine Le Pen and the far right Le Rassemblement National (The National Ralley, formerly the National Front).Agnès Poirier explains the disillusionment and the current political landscape divided among Islamified left, failed Macron-centered centre, and radical right factions. Agnès and Nick explore Macron's challenges in maintaining power despite a lack of majority support, the rise of extreme parties, and the shifting dynamics within the French socialist movement. The discussion concludes with an examination of France's welfare system, the transformation of the National Rally under Marine Le Pen, and concerns about the potential rise of far-right leaders in future elections.French are more scared of hard left that far rightWhat if the Centre continues to collpase and the French are left with a choice between extreme right and left? Agnes Poirier says people are more concerned and worried about Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the left than the far right of Marine Le Pen, saying, "They [the Left] they go to the National Assembly dressed in t-shirts, um, or in football, shirts; they insult each other. They just want insurrection. They look dangerous. They speak dangerous, and they don't care. Whereas Marine Le Pen party is much more clever in the way they present themselves. They don't insult people. They're not loud; they put on a suit, and so at least on the surface, they are not scaring people and, and it works. It does work. Um, you'd rather have somebody who's not insulting you or shouting at you the way they do with their hard left." Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is is already too late to save US democracy?In this week's The Lowdown, Nick Cohen asks Edward Luce - the Washing-based editor & columnist of the Financial Times - is it already too late to save the US? Trump is already trying to gerrymander the critical 2026 mid-term elections by demanding re-districting of states like Texas to produce more Republican states. Also, he repeatedly threatens to invoke the Insurrection Act to further threaten freedom, and sends ICE agents and troops into peaceful Democrat cities to intimidate them. Nick and Edward discuss the institutional purges, widespread corruption, and the chilling effect of Trump's personal vendettas on free speech and political opposition. Edward Luce, explores how Trump's presidency has eroded traditional American values and institutions, noting the widespread fear and self-censorship that has developed across society.Fear stalks AmericaLuce says fear stalks the US and that the richest are the most afraid because they feel they have the most to lose. Trump's henchmen denounce Democrats as terrorists and traitors, while destroying the freedoms of much of the mainstream media. Edward says, " [Trump's] not only getting away with it, but sort of doing it so easily, steamrolling these guardrails, these traditions so easily... because he comes at the end of 20/30 years worth of declining trust in institutions, and of growing cynicism about institutions and about the media, not just about elected politicians."No King's Day but no objective for the opposition either!Luce says the US needs a Martin Luther King type figure to lead the opposition against Trump's growing tyranny, adding "What is it that the No Kings Rally (on October 18th) is demanding? I don't know. It's, it's saying Trump's a king. He's behaving like a king. He's doing what he likes. There's no restraint on him, all of which is true. But what's the deliverable here?"Edward adds, "Democracy is about. Winning and winning is about building coalitions. And building coalitions is an additive game. You actually link arms with people you might disagree with on important issues like, for example, abortion, or gun control, whatever it might be, or taxes and you hold your nose and say, look, we've got something bigger in common here."Read all about it! Edward Luce @EdwardGLuce is Associate Editor, Financial Times, a US-based writer/columnist. Author of books including The Retreat of Western Liberalism, &, Time to Start Thinking.Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nick Cohen and historian and author James Hawes explore the rise of far-right sentiment in Britain and the Conservative Party's transformation, including their evolving definition of English identity and embrace of discriminatory immigration policies. Historical parallels were drawn between contemporary political events and pre-World War I era, with particular focus on the party's strategic shifts and potential mergers with right-wing factions. The conversation concluded with analysis of current political dynamics, including the challenges of governing under a first-past-the-post system and the implications of right-wing.populism on British society.The end of the UK is nighJames predicts the Tories' lurch to the far right will inevitably lead to the brea-up of the UK, if, as he sees likely, Reform and the Tories enter into some sort of merger. An ethno-nationalist far right government is bound to boost the prospects of nationalists elsewhere in the UK, particularly the SNP in Scotland and Plad Cymru in Wales.Rise of Far-Right Sentiment in BritainNick and Jim discuss the rise of far-right sentiment in Britain, highlighting events such as Tommy Robinson's march and Elon Musk's controversial statements. They examine how right-wing figures like Nigel Farage and Robert Jenrick have embraced discriminatory immigration policies targeting black and brown migrants. Nick and James also critique the lack of pushback from the conservative press and party, while noting the emergence of pro-Palestinian sentiment and anti-Semitic attacks. They draw parallels to the Weimar Republic era, expressing concern about the current state of British society.Read all about it! James Hawes @jameshawes2 Renaissance man, historian, writer and novelist. James, the author of The Shortest History of England and The Shortest History of Germany. His latest in the series, The Shortest History of Ireland, out In the new year.Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nick Cohen talks to leading US political commentator Charlie Sykes about the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on American politics and conservative institutions, with Charlie sharing his perspective as one of the first "Never Trump" conservatives and discussing the erosion of traditional conservative values and principles. They examine how Trump's rise was connected to broader trends in right-wing politics, including the appeal to "own the libs" and the normalisation of previously unacceptable behaviour. They discuss their concerns about Trump's potential future political influence and the need for institutions, media, and individuals to push back against extreme political trends in both the US and U.K.Conservatives voices must take on Trump & the radical rightCharlie says his fellow "Never Trump" Conservatives made a huge strategic error in confronting Trump and MAGA before the 2024 presidential election, saying, "I think it was a major mistake for much of the Never Trump movement to basically become Liberal Democrats. Because what happened is they were no longer speaking to those centre Right. Conservative swing voters. They were perceived to be simply just parroting the other lines. And by the way, take some responsibility. I'm a contributor for the Progressive network, MSNBC, and I think this is a real problem."The other problem was that during the Biden years, I think that one of the, the fundamental roles of the centre. You know, the centre should have been to keep the administration from, from going too far left on all of the issues on crime, on immigration, on the trans issue. And by the way, Democrats are still deeply in denial."You have to stop Farage now - before it's too late Charlie Sykes warns the UK that Nigel Farage and Reform have to be stopped now before it is too late. Ciservative vocies must play their part in preventing the UK sinking into a Trump-like darknes, adding, " If in late 2015 if you had big conservative voices like Rush Limbaugh, not a fan, but if Rush Limbaugh would've told his audience, come on, people. Donald Trump's a joke. Donald Trump is not what we have fought for all these years. the best time to get these to stop these guys is on the launchpad before they achieve velocity."Maybe too late. but it's gotta be done early and it's gotta be done forceful because it's if you, if if you, if you don't do it now, it's gonna be exponentially harder a year from now. "Read all about it!Charlie Sykes @SykesCharlie is a leading highly respected United States conservative political commentator who was formerly editor-in-chief and founder of the highly influential website The Bulwark. Charlie has been a leading Never Trump Conservative since Trump stood for the presidency in 2015. Charlie's Substack - To the contrary is a must read, and his regular podcast - also called To the contrary - a must listen. He has also been a columnist and author for the progressive channel MSNBC.Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Can Farage be stopped, and if so, by who?Nick Cohen talks to Ed Hodgson from the More in Common think-tank about growing concerns over the potential shift towards extreme right-wing politics by Nigel Reform & his latest insurgent party Reform and the implications for British society and the political landscape. Ed Hodgson explores divisions in British society and the rise of the Reform, while examining public sentiment towards immigration policies and the challenges facing Labour under Keir Starmer's leadership. The conversation concluded with an analysis of the current political dynamics, including the complexities of the British electoral system and the challenges of polling and predicting future elections.Farage's Right-Wing Political ShiftNick and Ed discuss Reform's potential shift towards extreme right-wing politics, citing Farage's recent proposals to abolish indefinite leave to remain and his embrace of pseudoscientific claims. He argues that Farage's rhetoric is being influenced by Trump and that the British media and political class have not adequately recognised this shift. Ed and Nick discuss ways in which mainstream parties can counter the toxic messaging from the extreme right and & its apparently unstoppable rise. these divisions in British society and the need to address extremism.Farage Trump worship could backfire Ed says Farage's craven worship of Donald Trump and his copying out of the worst of MAGA excesses - particularly on prurient and untrue allegations again migrants - could backfire among Brits who increasingly see the US as a hositle power, adding, "...people who say America is an ally in Britain has fallen to less than half. Right. In America, More than 80% of Americans think that Britain is an ally. So there's this weird sort of one way relationship going on, at least in a public opinion perspective, where Americans still feel very close to Britain and Britain's in many way do feel quite close to America."Who are More in Common?More in Common is a think-tank that seeks to understand polarisation and to work on initiatives to tackle division in our society. The innovative and extensive research we have carried out in the UK forms the basis of our efforts to tackle division.Ed HodgsonEd Hodgson @edhodgsoned is deputy director for More in Common in 2022 @Moreincommon. Ed manages More in Common UK's polling function on a day-to-day basis, and has led More in Common's in-depth research into topics such as assisted dying, Progressive Activists, the Israel-Gaza war, and tackling climate change.Read all about it!Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

SummaryLet's face it - Labour inherited a total shit show after 14 years of Tory misrule - an economy crippled by Brexit, immigration chaos, turds in our rivers and seas, and rapidly deteriorating public services. But - inevitably - it's Sir Keir Starmer who's getting the blame for the country's woes, thanks mainly to the the fickleness of the electorate as well as the country's evident decline. But Labour seems to have bent over backwards to help its opponents with self-inflicted wounds such as inept communications, avoidable scandal and bouts of epic political bungling.As the Labour Party Conference gets under way next weekend, Nick Cohen talks to Keir Starmer's biographer Tom Baldwin about the prime minister's leadership position within the Labour Party, examining the PM's challenges and potential future in politics.Labour needs to expose the malice and plastic patriotism of the Far RightNick and Tom discuss the current state of Labour's position, focusing on whether Sir Keir Starmer's leadership is in jeopardy. They highlighted Labour's low vote share in the 2024 election and recent poor opinion poll ratings, including a recent approval rating of minus 54 for Keir Starmer. The discussion touches on the potential leadership challengers within the Labour Party, including, possibly the current metro-mayor for Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, with Nick noting the historic difficulty of replacing a sitting Prime Minister, particularly in the Labour Party. In contrast, as we know, the Tories have never had any problem knifing their leaders in the back - or front.Both Tom and Nick explore the broader topic of combating the far right in politics. Tom says Starmer should articulate Labour values more forcefully and espouse his own more gentle and inclusive version of patriotism in stark contrast to the nationalist bombast of Nigel Farage and and the more sinister extremism of Tommy Robinson/Yaxley-Lennon.Starmer needs to articulate & lead national renewalTom says Starmer needs to be able to convincingly argue for a gentle and inclusive patriotism, to lead a sense of national renewal and take on the plastic patriots of Farage and the far right, He says, "It's not some sepia-tinted restoration of the past. It's not some like we're going to like back ruling the waves like Boris Johnson pretended, or you where the country invented liberties. So we don't need to be members of the ECHR or this nonsense."Read all about it!The paperback version of Tom's must-read bestseller, Keir Starmer, the biography, is out now with updated chapters.Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

SummaryNick Cohen and Anne Applebaum discuss the current state of democracy in the United States and Europe, focusing on the rise of populism and identity politics, while exploring how political figures maintain support despite policy failures. They examined the systematic dismantling of American institutions under Trump's administration, including attacks on the civil service and potential weakening of military capabilities, while also discussing the emerging alliance between authoritarian states opposed to American influence. The conversation concluded with a discussion of the current state of American politics, including the narrow margins in recent elections and the need for effective opposition strategies to defend democratic values both in the U.S. and across Europe.Democracy's Challenges in Populist EraAnne and Nick talk about the current state of democracy in the United States and Europe, focusing on the rise of populism and the shift towards identity politics. Anne highlighted how political figures like Nigel Farage in the UK and Donald Trump in the US have maintained support despite policy failures, attributing it to the emotional appeal of their cultural identities. They explored the question of whether real-world issues like inflation and healthcare are now less important than online cultural battles. Andrew asked Anne about the dangers facing American democracy, to which she responded that it is indeed in danger, but the outcome is still uncertain.The UK must wake up to the MAGA reality! Anne argues that the UK should wake up to the new reality - Powerful elements at the top of the Trump White House & MAGA not only consider the so-called "special relationship" as not only over but see the UK as an enemy. Anne says, there's a very powerful strain. Inside this administration and inside the American far right who really hate Britain. And they hate Europeans and they hate the Germans. ... there's a constant narrative about how the British violate free speech and how, you know, Britain is, an extreme left country and so on."She says, " I'm not saying they dominate this administration, and you won't hear this from Marco Rubio, but there is a strain inside MAGA, which essentially reflects Russian propaganda. ... there's a piece of, of that movement that doesn't really want anything to do with Britain or Europe anymore....I would watch out for that and as I said, have a contingency plan and think about a world in which the United States is run by people who are hostile to Britain." Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nick Cohen and Sunder Katwala engage in a detailed discussion about the rise of right-wing extremism in Britain, analysing rabid right rabble-rousers like Nigel Farage and examining how his evolving stance and ambiguous approach appeal to both mainstream voters and extreme elements. They explored the current political climate, focusing on the challenges faced by mainstream conservative parties and the need for addressing legitimate concerns about immigration while drawing clear boundaries against racist ideologies. The conversation concluded with discussions about the fragmented state of British politics, the need for a coherent centre-right party, and the challenges faced by political leaders in navigating complex social and cultural issues.Nick & Sunder discuss the rise of right-wing extremism in Britain, comparing current political figures like Nigel Farage to historical fascists. Sunder expresses concern about the right setting the agenda and the dominance of emotional arguments over factual evidence. However, he remained optimistic about the long-term progress of British society, drawing on his personal experiences of racial and cultural diversity.Sunder says "we are under policing absolute fascism and racism. Elon Musk has brought it in and what [Steve] Bannon and Trump did is they said there will be no boundary between the respectful right and the racist." Sunder says the sinister issue of so-called "re-migration" - in other words expelling ethnic minority Brits - will eventually do for the rabid right, saying, "There's immigration there's asylum. And these are tough issues in the centre left, but remotion, which is, you know, more people should leave them come in and re migration is a far right code ultimately for the people who really want to hear the word Remi.It's about, you know, Sunder Katwala shouldn't been allowed to be born here. So if he was, let's get him out.... Okay. It's not gonna happen. But about from kick out the ethnic minority." Hope can still beat hate For all its problems, and the ranting of the right, Sunder argues the UK still has a lot going for it as a tolerant and diverse society, saying ":Britain is the most Successful multi-ethnic democracy in the western world. It's a generation ahead of Western Europe." Overall, Sunder has a message of hope after a summer of far right race-baiting, demagoguery and even predictions of civil war: "It was a very sinister, silly season. We had people predicting civil war every weekend and it never quite erupting; Farage setting the asylum debate."It's felt like it's going backwards for a couple of years. We can and will reverse that...And you know, if people are making impossible promises to give us sort of fantasy politics that if you quit three more international treaties, your lives will be better. Let's make the opposite case."Read all about it!Sunder Katwala @sundersays is a director of the British Future think tank and a former general secretary of the Fabian Society. His book, How to be a patriot, is published by HarperNorthNick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Yascha Mounk, the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of the Persuasion Substack and a political scientist at Johns Hopkins University, joins to discuss the rise of populism and its impact on centrism. He highlights how traditional liberal views have become outdated in today's political landscape. The conversation shifts to the challenges facing leaders in the UK and the US, emphasizing the need for effective messaging to regain voter trust. Mounk also critiques current housing and immigration policies, calling for a more inclusive vision to address these pressing social issues.

SummaryIn this discussion, Nick Cohen and former diplomat Arthur Snell explore the complex relationship between Donald Trump and Russia, examining evidence suggesting Trump may be serving Russian interests either knowingly or unwittingly. They analyze Christopher Steele's controversial intelligence work on Trump-Russia connections, noting that despite criticism, many of his key allegations have proven accurate according to subsequent investigations, including the Senate Intelligence Committee report. The conversation concludes by addressing concerns about Trump's deferential behaviour toward Putin, his appointment of pro-Russian officials to intelligence positions, and the implications for US-UK intelligence sharing should Trump return to power.In this discussion, Nick Cohen and former diplomat Arthur Snell explore the complex relationship between Donald Trump and Russia, examining evidence suggesting Trump may be serving Russian interests either knowingly or unwittingly. They analyse Christopher Steele's controversial intelligence work on Trump-Russia connections, noting that despite criticism, many of his key allegations have proven accurate according to subsequent investigations, including the Senate Intelligence Committee report. The conversation concludes by addressing concerns about Trump's deferential behaviour toward Putin, his appointment of pro-Russian officials to intelligence positions, and the implications for US-UK intelligence sharing should Trump return to power.Trump's Russian Connection ExaminationNick Cohen introduces a discussion on whether Donald Trump is a Russian asset, with guest Arthur Snell, a former Foreign Office diplomat. Arthur explains there's a spectrum of possibilities, from Trump being a recruited KGB/FSB asset to him being an unwitting "agent of influence" serving Russian interests. They note Trump's unusual connections to the Soviet bloc during the Cold War, including his 1987 Moscow visit and marriage to Ivana from Czechoslovakia, emphasising how rare it was for American businessmen to engage with communist countries at that time.Read all about it.Arthur Snell's substack column is Not all doom & his regular inciteful podcast is Behind the Lines. Arthur's first not fiction book is How Britain Broke the World: War, Greed and Blunders from Kosovo to Afghanistan, 1997-2022 .Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond. Read Nick's latest column, Can Europe resist Trump's gangsterism? Does it have the willpower to try? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.