The Centre can and must hold

Nick Cohen and Robert Saunders, the author and academic, discuss historical political party splits in Britain, particularly in the 1920s when the Liberals split and Labour formed, contrasting with the current situation where both left and right-wing votes are fragmented. Nick and Robert analyse the current political landscape, noting that while the right-wing vote is divided with Nigel Farage being popular, the centre-left could dominate British politics if it remains united. The discussion highlighted the challenges of multi-party democracy under the first-past-the-post system and the potential for new parties like the Greens and a Corbyn-led radical left party to impact the political landscape.

They talk about the decline of the two-party system in the UK, highlighting how Labour's popularity has dropped significantly since the 2024 election. Labour barely won a third of the vote in 2024 but still secured a majority of seats under the first-past-the-post system, leading to concerns about the system's fairness. Robert explains that the decline of the two-party system can be traced back to the 1950s, when Labour and the Conservatives together accounted for 97% of the vote, compared to 65% by 2010. They also discuss how Brexit and the implosion of the Liberal Democrats in 2015 temporarily reversed this trend, but Robert believes these were anomalous elections and that the longer-term pattern of decline continues.

Tory party is dying on its feet

Possibly the most dramatic and most influential event driving current politics is the slow agonising death of the Conservative Party. Robert says "This is a party that used to be anchored in all sorts of important institutions that was very deeply rooted in the world of British business. That was connected to institutions like the Church of England, the armed forces, the kind of voluntarist culture, and that also meant it had a lot of kind of different sources of information and ideas flowing into it. It's either cut itself off from those things, or those things have essentially died. So it's become a kind of tree with no roots, and then I don't think it's entirely surprising, therefore, that it crashed down in the way that it did in 2024. "

He adds "The biggest danger for the conservative party was that they took refuge in comfortable myths about their defeat. And I think that's what they've been doing."

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Robert Saunders - @redhistorian - author and academic. Author of "Yes to Europe! The 1975 Referendum & Seventies Britain". "A jaw-dislocating page turner"(Andrew Marr). Co-director the Mile End Institute @MileEndInst , Reader Queen Mary's @QMHistory

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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