WEALTHTRACK

A special WEALTHTRACK podcast with influential economist and Fed watcher turned professor Paul McCulley. McCulley is an adjunct professor at Georgetown Business School and a very much in-demand speaker in financial circles because of his deep understanding of Fed policy, honed at bond giant PIMCO, where for many years he was Senior Partner, author of the influential Global Central Bank Focus and manager of its huge short-term trading desk. In this week’s podcast, McCulley shares his thoughts on where we are in the Fed’s tightening cycle, economy, and markets. WEALTHTRACK 1907 published on August 14, 2022 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/influential-economist-and-fed-watcher-paul-mcculley-on-fed-policy-recession-prospects-and-the-markets/

Global value investor Tom Russo says today’s investment environment is the most challenging of his 40-year career. He explains why his core companies are up to the challenge. WEALTHTRACK episode 1906 broadcast on August 05, 2022 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-a-concentrated-portfolio-of-global-brand-name-companies-is-faring-in-this-challenging-market/

Making money by losing less is how legendary small-cap value manager Charlie Dreifus has succeeded for over 50 years of investing. It's even more important now as he expects more economic and market pain ahead. WEALTHTRACK 1905 broadcast on July 29, 2022  More info: https://wealthtrack.com/making-money-by-losing-less-in-this-bear-market-with-legendary-value-manager-charlie-dreifus/

Soon-to-be retirees and retirees are the most vulnerable in this new era of higher inflation, interest rates, volatile markets, and possible recession. What kinds of adjustments should they be making in their financial plans, investments, and even lifestyles? That demographic is one of the specialties of this week’s guest, an award-winning financial planner. He is Mark Cortazzo, Senior Vice President and Financial Advisor with the Wealth Enhancement Group, an independent financial planning firm. Cortazzo has received numerous awards and accolades during his 30-year investment advisor career. We are delighted that he has been a frequent WEALTHTRACK guest since our 2005 inception. Over that time, we have discussed preparing for the increasing incidents of “black swan” events like the global financial crisis, pandemics, lockdowns, and wars. We’ve talked about alternative income strategies, transferring equity risk, and how timing can dramatically change retirement outcomes. We will cover those topics and more in this week’s interview. WEALTHTRACK Episode 1902 was broadcast on July 22, 2022 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/this-new-era-calls-for-a-complete-financial-reassessment-says-award-winning-advisor-mark-cortazzo/

Looking around the world, one of the most under-owned asset classes after years of underperformance is emerging markets.  And one of the least understood and appreciated at this particular time is Asia, especially China.  Once a darling of investors, it has lost favor for geopolitical, political, and business reasons. So what better time to delve into Asia than now? On this week’s program, we will be joined by Robert Horrocks, Ph.D. and Chief Investment Officer of Matthews Asia, one of the first American mutual funds to focus solely on the region. Horrocks will bring us up to speed on China’s economy and markets and the other Asian markets he deems worthy of our attention.  Of particular interest to me is how to invest in this fast-growing region while minimizing China’s powerful political risks. WEALTHTRACK Episode 1904 broadcast on July 15, 2022. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/investing-in-fast-growing-asian-markets-while-minimizing-chinas-risk-with-matthews-asias-cio/ Bookshelf: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter Bernstein https://amzn.to/3PdN1s3 Peter Bernstein from the WEALTHTRACK Archives: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznI5J0QOR3N3u5qR3ezi8QUXs2-T-Gas

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and it turns out the difference between a growth and value stock is too, with price as a key determinant.  Some of the darlings of last year and much of the prior decade have recently been rebalanced from growth to value by a major index provider. Such is the power of a bear market! This week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is a well-known value manager known for her global and international investing.  We’ll be joined by Sarah Ketterer, Chief Executive Officer of Causeway Capital Management. Ketterer will tell us why she believes we are entering a new investment era and discuss some of the “outstanding” investment opportunities being created in the process.  WEALTHTRACK Episode 1902 broadcast on Jul 8, 2022 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/top-global-value-manager-sarah-ketterer-identifies-some-outstanding-bear-market-opportunities/

Ouch! The S&P 500 ended the first half of the year with its worst performance since 1970, down more than 20%, cementing its bear market status. And the recession drumbeat is getting louder. This morning, leading Wall Street economist, Nancy Lazar told clients “a recession is coming sooner than you think” PiperlSandler’s Global Chief Economist blames “sticky inflation”, “very aggressive Fed tightening, and a “severe corporate profit recession” for her forecast of a mild recession with the economy contracting starting in the final quarter of this year into the first half of next year.  But this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is way ahead of her and the few others just joining the recession club. He’s been warning clients about the likelihood of a downturn for months.  Our guest is David Rosenberg, President, Chief Economist, and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research which he founded in January 2020. High inflation is at the top of the Federal Reserve’s, Washington's, and Wall Street’s list.  Rosenberg says they are looking at the wrong numbers and that disinflation is already taking hold.  Interest rates are expected to go higher for longer.  Rosenberg cites evidence of economic slowing which will require easing sooner than expected.  As I just mentioned, the likelihood of recession is still being debated. Rosenberg is forecasting a recession this year.   What about the already steep bear market decline? Rosenberg warns about the lure of bear market rallies.  Which prevailing views is Rosenberg challenging now? WEALTHTRACK Episode 1901 broadcast on July 01, 2022  More info: https://wealthtrack.com/influential-prescient-economist-dave-rosenberg-warns-of-imminent-recession-an-extended-bear-market/

Remember when some fans of cryptocurrencies called them non-correlated assets? They were supposed to behave differently from the stock market, not affected by traditional economic, political and fundamental forces? Cryptocurrencies were also dubbed digital gold, in the expectation they would hold their value in inflationary times.  Neither has turned out to be the case. Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency has fallen far more than the S&P 500 year to date, and in the face of higher inflation Bitcoin plummeted while gold has held its own. Crypto advocates point out that Bitcoin has fallen by more than 50% eight times since its 2009 launch, and three times since 2018, and it’s recovered every time. And it’s been a top-performing asset class with better than 35% annualized returns over the last three and five-year periods and 80% annualized returns over ten years. In addition, an entire crypto industry has developed, which is expanding rapidly and being widely accepted by Wall Street, businesses, and some governments.  This week’s guest is a believer. He is Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer and former Global Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, a cryptocurrency asset manager founded in 2017. I began the interview by asking Hougan about the role crypto assets play in a portfolio, considering they act like stocks.  WEALTHTRACK 1852 broadcast on June 24, 2022 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/big-declines-are-normal-and-cryptos-potential-is-on-track-says-bitwises-cio-matt-hougan/

75 basis points: the biggest rate hike by the Federal Reserve since 1994 with additional aggressive moves expected. It looks like Fed Chair Jerome Powell is proving the naysayers wrong, who doubted he had the stuff to fight inflation. As influential Fed watcher Paul McCulley told WEALTHTRACK months ago Powell will “do whatever it takes” to fight inflation, just like Paul Volcker did in 1979/1980. Volcker succeeded, setting up conditions for the great bond bull market of the last 40 years but caused a serious recession to do it. How do you manage through a cycle of rising interest rates and higher inflation? There aren't too many money managers who have that experience and have a track record of excellence through many different types of markets. This week’s guest does. She is Mary Ellen Stanek, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors. Stanek was recently named Morningstar’s Outstanding Portfolio Manager of 2022 for her “disciplined and risk-aware approach, thoughtfully navigating various market environments,... and generating impressive absolute and risk-adjusted returns” in her 22 years at Baird.  I interviewed Stanek a few days before the Fed meeting but she was prepared for it. We talked about the need for the Fed to get more aggressive in word and deed - which they did, where we are in the interest rate cycle - early days yet, and why she says “bonds are back!”  WEALTHTRACK #1851 broadcast on Jun 17, 2022 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/morningstars-outstanding-portfolio-manager-of-2022-mary-ellen-stanek-says-bonds-are-back/ Related: Investment legend Jeremy Grantham is known for his prescient forecasts of some major turning points in the markets over the years including his “epic bubble” characterization last year. He elaborated on the theme on WealthTrack saying that not only was the stock market trading in the stratosphere but so were the housing, commodity, and bond markets, the latter being the biggest bubble of them all.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c13O6Amn1lQ Paul McCulley on Fed Rates: https://youtu.be/Z0KSdIOkcxw

In a WEALTHTRACK exclusive legendary financial thought leader, Charles Ellis explains why after decades of searching for outstanding money managers he has become a big believer in indexing. WEALTHTRACK Episode 1850 published on June 9, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/legendary-investment-consultant-charles-ellis-makes-a-compelling-case-for-indexing/