We are in a new era of higher inflation and the pressure is on the Fed! Inflation is running at 40-year highs and it’s coming from every angle: food, energy, services, goods, rents, and wages which are all increasing.   Is the Fed up to the challenge? Can it rein in inflation without causing a recession? What can we expect as borrowers and investors? We have lots of questions to ask this week’s guest but we know from his past performance he can take them all in stride.  Paul McCulley is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown Business School where he teaches a very timely multi-disciplinary course combining law, economics, monetary policy, global finance and behavioral finance.   McCulley says this Fed has the courage to defeat inflation despite recession risk. WEALTHTRACK #1842 broadcast on April 15, 2022

The new era of higher inflation and interest rates is already proving to be a challenging one for investors. The first quarter of 2022 was the worst one in two years for the stock market. Inflation reached 40 year highs, and in response, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 and is signaling an aggressive policy of multiple rate hikes in the months ahead. Then there are all the other disturbing and disruptive developments to consider: the extended impact of Covid on global growth, supply chain problems, Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine, and aggressive actions from China, North Korea and Iran. How to navigate these challenges as investors is the job of this week’s guest. She is an influential strategist, Savita Subramanian who has two leading roles at BofA Global Research. She is Head of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Research, the first in that position, and the Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy. This is Subramanian’s first appearance on WEALTHTRACK so we will cover a lot of territory including why she believes the market is at a major inflection point. WEALTHTRACK #1841 broadcast on April 08, 2022 More Info: http://wealthtrack.com/new-strategies-for-a-major-market-inflection-point-with-influential-strategist-savita-subramanian/

As bonds suffer the worst quarter in more than four decades we are exploring one of the fastest-growing segments in the fixed income markets where demand is still accelerating. It's in ESG, environmental, social, and governance standards being applied to corporate and government bond issuers and specific issues themselves.  In part 2 of our interview with industry pioneer Steve Liberatore, we explore both ESG fixed income investing, as well as the relatively new area of impact investing where bond proceeds are directed to a specific project or goal and the results are measurable.    In the previous episode about the state of the bond market in general, still very timely, you’ll know that Liberatore is the lead portfolio manager and head of ESG/impact for global fixed income at Nuveen, the investment arm of TIAA and a pioneer in the field.  Liberatore will give us an update on socially responsible fixed income investing as well as a fascinating lesson on how impact investing works and the unusual opportunities in it.    WEALTHTRACK #1840 broadcast on April 01, 2022 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-impact-bonds-represent-opportunities-for-investors-with-industry-pioneer-steve-liberatore/ From the Bookshelf: Five Days in London: May 1940: https://amzn.to/3wXoC3w Citizens of London: The Americans Who Stood with Britain in Its Darkest, Finest Hour: https://amzn.to/3K1I17a

Part 1 of 2 The direction of inflation and interest rates are key to the performance of bond prices and they are in the midst of a massive change. The shift in direction has been most dramatic for inflation. After a decade of staying mostly below the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% target, the Consumer Price Index recently soared nearly 8% year over year. Meanwhile, until very recently interest rates have remained near historic lows. Despite telegraphing it would for months, the Federal Reserve just raised its key short-term federal funds rate for the first time since 2018. And the short-term interest rate sensitive yield on the 2-year treasury note has risen accordingly while the longer-term 10-year Treasury yield has been more subdued. It now remains to be seen how aggressively the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to dampen economic activity and rein in inflation. Its decisions will heavily influence the performance of bonds not just in the U.S. but also in the rest of the world. This week’s guest will update us on the prospects for the bond markets but also on the increasing influence of his specialty, sustainable bond investing, on performance. Steve Liberatore, a pioneer in ESG and impact bond investing explains what the new bond era means for investors in general and sustainable investing in particular. WEALTHTRACK #1839 broadcast on March 25, 2022 More info:https://wealthtrack.com/esg-bond-pioneer-steve-liberatore-explains-the-new-bond-era-and-esgs-role-in-it/ Bookshelf: The Splendid and the Vile: A Saga of Churchill, Family, and Defiance During the Blitz: https://amzn.to/3tES2RV Never Give In! Winston Churchill’s Greatest Speeches: https://amzn.to/3DqxrEt

The first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve since 2018 happened this week, with the central bank planning six more of 25 basis points or one-quarter of a percent each this year. The lending market is already ahead of the Fed. The average fixed rate 30 year mortgage topped 4% for the first time since 2019 in the latest reporting week. It's happening in a hot housing market. The median listing price for homes hit an all-time high of $392,000 in February and the inventory of homes for sale fell to a record low in January. By raising rates the Federal Reserve intends to make borrowing more expensive. That’s supposed to dampen demand for goods and services and slow price increases, i.e., inflation down. With inflation running close to an 8% annual rate, a 40 year high, it remains to be seen how effective the Fed’s incremental approach will be. This week’s guest, a noted investment strategist known for his macro analysis and thematic investing, expects long-term inflation to be higher than it's been in the past decade and believes most portfolios are not positioned for this new reality. In fact, he says the vast majority of investors, institutional and individual, are holding the winners of yesteryear instead of the winners of future years. He has recommendations to bring us up to speed! He is Richard Bernstein, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors; he says most portfolios are not positioned for a new era of higher inflation. WEALTHTRACK #1838 broadcast on March 18, 2022 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-to-reposition-your-portfolio-for-a-new-higher-inflation-era-with-top-strategist-rich-bernstein/

Russia’s brutal, unprovoked assault on Ukraine is dominating the news headlines, but so far its market impact has been short-lived. ClearBridge Investment strategist Jeff Schulze says what really matters to the markets in the direction of the economy and Federal Reserve policy. According to his proprietary Recession Risk Dashboard, the vast majority of his twelve key indicators remain positive.     More info: https://wealthtrack.com/ukrainian-invasion-impact/

Since the future is essentially unknowable, this week’s podcast guest focuses on what is knowable and controllable, mainly our own reactions. He is veteran personal finance journalist Jonathan Clements, a former colleague of mine at The Wall Street Journal who was its personal finance columnist for nearly 20 years. The author of several books including From Here to Financial Happiness and How to Think About Money, Clements is the Founder and Editor of HumbleDollar, a free weekly newsletter devoted to telling you “everything you need to know about money.”  Veteran personal finance journalist Jonathan Clements explains why the most successful approach to dealing with turbulent markets is to stay invested. WEALTHTRACK #1836 published on March 04, 2022

Target-date funds have $3 trillion dollars in assets. Millions of Americans are enrolled in them, mostly through company 401(k) plans. They have a track record, multiple products, plenty of competition and fees are declining as a result.  In an article titled “In Praise of Target-Date Funds,” one of our favorite WEALTHTRACK guests, Morningstar’s Director of Personal Finance, Christine Benz described them as “...nothing short of the biggest positive development for investors since the index fund.” That got my attention! So this week we are interviewing one of the best target-date managers in the business. He is Wyatt Lee, who is Head and Co-Manager of T. Rowe Price’s $390 billion Target Date Strategies, the largest group of actively managed target-date products in the U.S.  The firm’s Retirement Series earned a Gold analyst rating from Morningstar, one of only two in the actively managed category, for its stellar performance and high ratings for its process, people, and the parent company.  Lee begins with the basics and defines what a target-date fund does and how the product has evolved since it was first introduced in 1994. It turns out target-date funds can be an effective retirement vehicle for investors at all stages of life and that there are many options available. I learned a great deal from Lee. I hope you will too.  WEALTHTRACK #1834 broadcast on Febuary, 18, 2022 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/target-date-fund-advantages-with-t-rowe-prices-wyatt-lee-one-of-the-top-managers-in-the-business/

Yankee legend Yogi Berra famously said, “It’s deja vu all over again,” one of his many memorable expressions. That’s the way I feel this week.   The “deja vu all over again” is the theme of “Don’t fight the Fed.” The Federal Reserve's recent pivot from inflation promoter to inflation fighter puts that adage front and center in the current debate between the bulls and the bears. This week’s guest has been following that dictum during his 40-year investment career. He has been bullish since the Fed opened the monetary spigots in 2009. He is Ed Yardeni, a Ph.D. economist, long-time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely followed by institutional investors.  He is also the author of several books.  The latest, In Praise of Profits! is dedicated to progressives to help them understand that “profits isn’t a four-letter word.”  Another Yardeni book is Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: a Primer for Investors, which we discussed in-depth in an earlier interview. In that book, he wrote: “To do this job well, I've learned that nothing is more important than to anticipate the actions of the Federal Reserve system’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which sets the course for monetary policy in the United States.”   Given the Fed’s change of policy from easing to tightening I asked Yardeni if he was becoming less bullish.  WEALTHTRACK Episode #1833 broadcast on February 11, 2022 More Info:https://wealthtrack.com/despite-higher-inflation-and-interest-rates-ed-yardeni-makes-the-bullish-case/ Bookshelf: Fed Watching for Fun & Profit: A Primer for Investors https://amzn.to/3BhlQ9i In Praise of Profits! https://amzn.to/3uKvDng Martin Zweig’s Winning on Wall Street https://amzn.to/3uJJvOr

We appear to be in a new investment era, one of higher inflation and higher interest rates. It is a huge change from the “great moderation,” the multi-decade stretch of low inflation and falling interest rates since the early 1980’s. With consumer prices soaring to 40-year highs the Federal Reserve has pivoted from its unusual role as inflation promoter to its traditional role of inflation fighter, which signals higher interest rates ahead. Major macro shifts like these are always turbulent. How to navigate them without damaging your portfolio or psyche is our focus this week. Our guest is well suited to tackle this challenge because of his track record of capital preservation and long-term compounding. Noted global value manager Matthew McLennan has a proven track record of building lasting wealth by investing in resilient investments, including gold. WEALTHTRACK Episode 1832 broadcast on February 04, 2022 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/resilient-investments-including-gold-are-matt-mclennans-method-for-building-lasting-wealth/ Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson:  https://amzn.to/3rs2n2B