All into Account

J.P. Morgan Global Research
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Oct 9, 2023 • 25min

Where Are We in the Great Repricing?

In this latest podcast we revisit the predictions we made at the beginning of the year on the outlook for markets and review how the “The Great Repricing” we discussed earlier this year is playing out. We also take the opportunity to make adjustments to our long-only Strategic Asset Allocation views. The great repricing that we had expected for fixed income has dramatically unfolded this past year and a half, with real yields almost at our longer-term target of 2.5% on 10yr US TIPs. We explore what this means for future return expectations on both bonds and equities. Speakers Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research Jan Loeys, Long-Term Strategy, Strategic Research Bruce Kasman, Chief Global Economist Alex Wise, Strategic Research Amy Ho, Strategic Research   This podcast was recorded on October 9, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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Oct 9, 2023 • 2min

Equity Strategy - Time is coming to position for the long duration trade

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy   In terms of a move in bond yields, we believe that we are currently in a transition phase, rising bond yields at these levels are problematic for investor sentiment and for the economy, and are therefore ultimately not sustainable. Bonds RSI is becoming oversold and at some point soon this should morph into pricing in of a policy mistake, where bond yields are likely to start to move lower. Brent rally does mechanically imply that PPIs, as well as CPIs, could inflect higher again. That said, unlike the 2021-2022 episode, where bond yields and oil were moving up together for some time in order to reflect the economies reopening, and where the consumer at the time was accepting of rising prices, given pent-up demand and a strong post-COVID liquidity position, the recent oil rally was mostly for supply reasons. This could lead to demand destruction, and be deflationary, rather than inflationary. Looking at the past eight Fed tightening cycles, post the final hike, bond yields were down each time, by 100bp on average, irrespective of whether recession or soft landing followed. If bond yields roll over, will it help equity valuations? Not if yields are peaking at a time when earnings, and the broader economy, start to disappoint. In terms of sector leadership, we note that post the last Fed hike, the sector tilts would turn broadly Defensive, on a 6- to 12-month horizon, both in the US and in Europe, with Insurance, Staples and Utilities ahead. Another implication, apart from the likely Defensives rebound, would be to go UW Banks. Banks are well capitalized, show strong earnings trends, and have been the best performer in Europe over the last 6 months, given the higher for longer narrative, but could start to lag if/when bond yields peak out, especially if their NII income rolls, along with the potential credit backdrop worsening.   This podcast was recorded on 08 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4529073-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  
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Oct 5, 2023 • 11min

All into Account: ‘State of the pullback in Credit and Equities’ with Steve Dulake, Head of Spread Product Research, and Bram Kaplan, Head of Americas Derivative Strategy

Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Steve Dulake, Head of Spread Product Research Bram Kaplan, Head of Americas Derivative Strategy This podcast was recorded on October 5, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522939-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4512598-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4517149-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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Oct 4, 2023 • 29min

All into Account: Debt, default, devaluation: Implications for China’s financial markets

In this podcast we discuss the substantial outflows and volatility impacting China’s financial markets since 2022.  China’s regulatory policies and debt burden have raised concerns and authorities have announced numerous measures to “activate capital markets” and support policy targets since August. We continue to view risks of global financial market spillovers as muted.   Speakers Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research Haibin Zhu, Chief China Economist Karl Chan, Head of China Property Developers Research Katherine Lei, Head of Greater China Bank Research Soo Chong Lim, Head of Asia Credit Research   This podcast was recorded on Oct. 3, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4506472-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  
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Oct 2, 2023 • 2min

Equity Strategy: October Chartbook

Speaker: Mislav Matejka CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Despite some recent weakness, where SPX RSI turned technically oversold, we believe that the equity risk-reward remains challenging. Divergences between softer activity momentum and the elevated equity prices, as well as market internals, that opened up in the summer, are starting to close, but there is more to go. The PMI rebound that many were hoping for, the call that the weakness in manufacturing will end and join the more resilient services, remains elusive. In addition, real rates upmove is pressuring multiples, and this is even taking out Tech. Finally, Brent and USD rally should be seen as concerning for stocks. Most of Brent upmove is supply driven, and could lead to weaker final demand. Corporates might struggle to pass on rising input costs this time, in contrast to ’21-’22. Historically, strengthening USD was almost always met with risk-off in equities. We do not think that bond yields will be able to keep moving up for too much longer, and will likely ultimately fall, and that is precisely because of the “higher for longer” narrative by the Fed. Q4 could end up a very good time to lock in the long duration trade for the next 12 months. SX5E had gone nowhere for half a year now, and has lagged the US since May, coincident with our downgrade to UW – stay short. Even as we remain bearish on China over the medium term, a lot has happened, MSCI China is down 20% since January, and one should not be tactically pressing the shorts into year end, in our view. We reiterate recent call to close the shorts on Miners, and we stay OW Energy.   This podcast was recorded on 01 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4524004-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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Sep 27, 2023 • 28min

All into Account: ‘Impact of “High for Long” on our Cross Asset views’ with Fabio Bassi, Prabhav Bhadani, and Patrick Locke

The theme of High for Long (H4L) is supportive for our current Cross Asset views, where it’s long European duration, UW European stock, or OW USD vs lower yielding currencies with growth risk. More often than not, this theme has reinforced the conviction in our regional views as we assess to what degree H4L is durable in countries with more growth risk.   Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy Fabio Bassi, Head of International Rates Strategy Prabhav Bhadani, Global Equity Strategist Patrick Locke, FX Strategist   This podcast was recorded on 09 Sept 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4519192-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4519132-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4515282-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4519047-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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Sep 25, 2023 • 3min

Equity Strategy: Who could get hurt from the rollover in corporate pricing power?

Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy As inflation rates are moving lower, taking out last year’s spike, the question is what the impact of this will be on corporate profitability. After all, instead of being hurt from higher input costs, it appears that most companies benefitted over the past two years, due to better mix and stronger pricing. European topline growth was a very high 14% in 2021, and as much as 24% in 2022, compared to historical median of 6%. 2022 EBIT margins for Europe are 330bp above 2019 levels. Defensives such as Healthcare, Staples and Utilities are the only sectors that are lower. There is a risk of reversal, especially if final demand stalls, potentially if PMI softness continues, and as supply chains have normalized. There is a very strong correlation between PPIs and global earnings delivery. Now, the latest oil rally could mechanically lead to stronger PPIs again. Historically though, when Brent moved up due to supply constraints, topline and margins of other sectors would not benefit, there would be demand destruction. Pent-up demand is behind us, as well as the ample post-COVID consumer liquidity, companies might not be in a position to pass on rising input costs as easily any more. In the report, we assess sectoral impacts, together with our analysts. We find a number of sectors to be at risk of a reversal in pricing power, such as Food and General Retail, Autos, Semis, Hotels, Airlines, Luxury/Sporting Goods and Construction Materials. On the other side, Insurance, Staples, Healthcare and Utilities could be less affected. Big picture, we see the Growth-Policy tradeoff as challenging into year-end. This is especially as the market is pricing in a no-landing scenario, with VIX at lows, credit spreads tight, and, until recently, a big rally in Cyclicals, but on the other side, the market expects 80bp of easing in 2H of next year, just ahead of US elections. This is an unlikely combination. We believe that Defensives will be having a bid into year end. We reiterate last week’s closing of two years’ worth of shorts in Real Estate, and advise tactically less negative call on China and on commodities – Mining (N) and Energy (OW), as they did poorly in 1H – CSI to bounce vs SPX and SX5E.   This podcast was recorded on 25 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4519132-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  
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Sep 21, 2023 • 7min

All into Account: ‘FOMC Takeaways’ with Mike Feroli, Chief US Economist

Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist   The big news at the FOMC was the upward revision of the ’24 and ’25 dots, although Powell’s message seemed less hawkish.  Our views haven’t changed, i.e. we’ve seen peak funds and policy will be on hold until  around 3rd quarter of next year. We discuss how Fed will proceed in the event of a government shutdown, as well the signaling power of the yield curve.     This podcast was recorded on Sep. 20, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4513430-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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Sep 18, 2023 • 3min

Equity Strategy: How much more can Eurozone lag? Reiterate that commodity equities look better; Add to Real Estate

Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy After the strong 30%+ rally vs the US that started last September, Eurozone equities have lagged notably since May, by 14%. SX5E has not managed to make gains in absolute terms since February. On the positive side, given the poor relative run, Eurozone equities are looking quite cheap at present, and one could argue that the relative growth disappointments are likely closing in on their worst point, vs the US. Having said that, the absolute Growth-Policy tradeoff is still challenging for Eurozone, in our view. Activity has stalled, as we were fearing, and M1 lead indicator points to continued softness. On the other side, while ECB has indicated a pause, it might not be done, as inflation could stay sticky – core CPI still has a 5% handle. Eurozone EPS revisions held up well so far this year, but look set to turn sharply negative, which will take away some of the perceived valuation support. Finally, Euro equities are trading better than the macro outturns would suggest. We reiterate our downgrade to UW, made in May, staying cautious on the region, expecting it to have another leg of underperformance in the global context. This could come if services momentum slows more broadly, and if bond yields move down. Eurozone historically acted as a high beta on the way down vs other equity indices, especially the US. Within Europe, we have tactically a more positive call on commodity equities, Energy (OW), which tended to do well against the backdrop of the rollover in PMIs, as well as Mining, on which we were bearish earlier in the year, but would not be short any more given the big 30% underperformance since January. We are relatively more cautious on consumer and corporate plays, that have done well in 1H, such as Autos, Semis, Capital Goods and Luxury. We also stay cautious on Chemicals. We have been UW Real Estate for the last two years, but advise closing the short now. We are not excited about Eurozone Banks (N), and globally prefer Japanese Banks – we continue the pair trade of long Japanese vs Eurozone Banks – started in April, on the expectation of further move up in Japanese bond yields vs Eurozone bond yields.   This podcast was recorded on 18 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4514331-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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Sep 14, 2023 • 17min

All into Account: ‘Best opportunities in SMidCap stocks’, with Eduardo Lecubarri, Head of SMidCap Strategy

Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Eduardo Lecubarri, Head of SMidCap Strategy   We maintain a cautious stance with a deteriorating macro backdrop and margin pressure which challenge the rich consensus sell-side earnings estimates. Despite our bearish view, we can find SMidCap opportunities at the stock level, focusing on names which are under-valued, where pricing power and margins are more supportive.   This podcast was recorded on Sep. 13, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4497659-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4508173-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

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