All into Account

“Mortgages are cheap to Corporates” has become one of the most popular adages in the HG credit market this year, achieving near Taylor Swift status within certain circles of investors (aka the Taylor rule). In this podcast, we roll out a novel framework to look at Corporates versus MBS relative value. If we compare the OAS of MBS (which takes call risk into account) versus Corporate spreads adjusted for downgrade risk, then are Corporates cheap to MBS?   Speakers: Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit, Securitized Products and Public Finance Research Nathaniel Rosenbaum, Head of U.S. High Grade Strategy Nick Maciunas, Head of U.S. Agency MBS Research   This podcast was recorded on 27 Oct 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Eric Beinstein, Head of US Credit Strategy This podcast was recorded on 26 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4538830-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4540030-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

‘Practitioners’ views on QIS investments’ with Dobromir Tzotchev, Head of Cross Asset Systematic Research, Deepak Maharaj, QIS Product Development, and Paul Fraynt, Portfolio Manager, Franklin Templeton.   Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Dobromir Tzotchev, Head of Cross Asset Systematic Research Deepak Maharaj, QIS Product Development Paul Fraynt, Portfolio Manager, Franklin Templeton   This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3295004-0  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4527762-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4540030-0  For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy   In addition to the move up in energy prices and elevated bond yields, renewed USD strength is another factor that the equity market needs to digest. Last October, USD peak coincided with the equity trough, and the more mixed equity performance in the past few months is coinciding with USD bottoming. Almost always in the past, when USD is strengthening, global equities have been under pressure. Our FX team is bullish on the USD over the next 3-6 months, vs all major crosses. If that comes to pass, equities in general could stay under pressure. Regionally, a stronger USD has typically meant the outperformance of Japan, Switzerland and the UK, in local currency, given their large export exposures. When assessing the performances in common currency, US equities are the top performers in times of USD strength, even with a headwind to the exporters, and Japan stays the outperformer, in the regional context. EM is an underperformer, and it is Eurozone that moves to the bottom of the pecking order. EM are lagging DM this year by 10%+, and from our equity strategy perspective, we remain cautious on EM. Broadly, in terms of sector tilts, we continue advising a barbell of commodities – OW Energy – together with a low beta exposure, such as Staples and Utilities, and that could track even if bond yields keep going higher in the near term. European Healthcare could be interesting, as well, as it tended to work well with a strong USD. Thematically, we maintain our longstanding preference for FTSE100 over FTSE250 that we initiated in November ’21. In terms of equity market levels, our index target of 4150 for SX5E has not changed over the last 12 months, since it was initiated. Stocks are at present below it, but we expect continued undershooting of the targets in the near term. This podcast was recorded on 22 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4540044-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nuclear is making a global comeback, and we see accelerating developments across the APAC region as nuclear plays role in de-carbonization. Since early 2022, at least 14 countries have approved new nuclear units or announced supportive policies. This echoes IEA’s earlier forecast that nuclear power capacity will need to double in size in the next two decades for the world to meet net-zero. We expect this trend to be particularly pronounced in Asia. Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Alan Hon, Head of Asia Power, Utilities and Renewables Research Tomohiko Sano, Co-Head of Japan Equity Research and Head of Japan ESG & Sustainability and Machinery Research SM Kim, Korean Autos Analyst Sanjay Mookim, Head of India Research and India Equity Strategist Hannah Lee, Head of Asia ESG Equity Research This podcast was recorded on 20 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4527125-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4531807-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:  Jake Pollack, J.P. Morgan’s Global Head of Credit Financing Stephen Dulake, J.P. Morgan’s Global Head of Credit, Securitized Products and Public Finance Research   This podcast was recorded on 19 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Faced with a backdrop of high for long rates, geopolitical risk, and inflection points at the end of the hiking cycle and possible recession, we discuss what are the most promising risk premia and themes on a cross asset basis, from the perspective of Research, Structuring and Macrosynergy.  In addition, we discuss the challenges in systematic strategies, given big swings in the data post-COVID and sizable revisions.   Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Dobromir Tzotchev, Head of Cross Asset Systematic Research Fred Giertz, Cross Asset Structuring Ralph Sueppel, Managing Director of MacroSynergy   This podcast was recorded on October 16, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4527762-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Big picture, we argued last Monday that bond yields are likely peaking. Given that the sharp bond selloff was a problem for equities over the past months, any turn lower in yields is initially interpreted as a positive by the market. The question is how long will that supportive effect last for, as the next market phase could be “bad will be seen as bad”, especially if earnings momentum starts to deteriorate. For Q3 reporting season, the consensus expectations are at +4% and +3% yoy EPS growth ex Energy, for US and Eurozone, respectively. These projections appear undemanding at face value, but, in contrast to 1H, when most activity metrics were on an improving trend, the PMI momentum softened during Q3. Weaker volumes, together with softer pricing, at the time of elevated input costs such as wages and rates could lead to margin squeeze. EPS revisions appear to be weakening again in the US and Eurozone, we think this downtrend could continue. At a sector level, we expect better results for commodity sectors – Mining and Energy. We see continued risks to Consumer cyclicals, such as Retail, Luxury, Autos, but also to Chemicals and Semis. With respect to Banks, they are still likely to have good results in Q3, but the next trade is likely to be to go UW Banks, probably after Q3 results for the sector are out of the way. In terms of positioning, we favour the barbell of bond proxies and commodities into year end. The likely rollover in bond yields, along with the potentially more challenging earnings results, favour the low beta exposure, sectors such as Utilities, Staples, Healthcare and Real Estate, to catch up after a poor 1H. Regionally, we reiterate our tactical call that China equities, and exposure such as Mining, should be trading better in the short term, post significant weakness earlier in the year, and we keep OW Energy. This podcast was recorded on 15 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4534192-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this podcast we discuss the recently published “Cost of Living Surveys” by our US and EMEA retail analysts. The surveys provide a pulse check on consumer sentiment and spending plans ahead, with responses from 5k consumers across Germany, France, Spain the United Kingdom and the United States. The survey results raise a question on whether consumers are at an inflection point and paint a picture of rising income disparities, deteriorating consumer sentiment alongside lower cash balances, with Black and Hispanic families in the US experiencing a more rapid reversal of cash buffers and savings accumulated during the pandemic. In addition, the JPMorgan Chase Institute has also taken a closer look at how US households are managing their balances and the level of cash buffers they maintain, analyzing a sample of de-identified data covering 19 million individuals that spans the period from 2008 through early 2023. Speakers Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research Chris Wheat, President of the JPMorgan Chase Institute Matthew Boss, Head of Retailing: Department Stores & Specialty Softlines Research Georgina Johanan, Head of the European General Retail Research This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Grace Ng, Senior China Economist Wendy Liu, Chief Asia and China Equity Strategist This podcast was recorded on October 11, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4530776-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4528894-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4528708-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4523374-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.