The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released Labour Market stats for Q2.Nick reckons they're pretty 'meh' and Kelvin's take is that it probably reduces the chance of a cut to the OCR, as some bank economists have called for, next week. Recent volatility across global financial markets, particularly Japan, has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works, but ultimately we expect the RBNZ to hold the line in the MPS next Wednesday. Though they are likely to use the statement to reset expectations for inflation and monetary policy for the rest of the year.Things will then turn pretty quickly, to how many and how fast cuts are going to come, once the RBNZ primes the market for the first one.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In exciting news for the CoreLogic Research team, and fellow housing data nerds, we've now got a brand new index to measuring housing value change over time!The launch of the CoreLogic hedonic Home Value Index firstly reported a further fall in property values in July, the fifth month in a row for the 'renewed downturn'. This brought with it plenty of discussion as to how to classify the weakness which then flowed on to some of the detail into the index itself - including what even is a hedonic regression index? Ultimately it's a better way to measure value over time. Nick and Kelvin cover off some of the detail, but there's plenty of technical documentation on the CoreLogic website, along with the weekly back series and plenty of FAQ to satisfy the data scientist and modelling analysts out there.In other property and macroeconomic news the latest filled jobs data offers a good preview of the official labour market stats out this week and Nick add a bit of 'actual new build' data to the reporting of building consents. Plus, business confidence data, RBNZ lending figures and a token nod to the ever-entertaining Olympics following a weekend where the guys' kids consider if they could be Olympic athletes in the trampoline or 100m sprint!Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week the guys chat about June lending data from the Reserve Bank and improving consumer confidence data. There's always a bit below the surface to pay attention too so the quieter week for data allows for a deeper look into these data. Also, what's behind NZ townhouse boom? That's the question Kelvin posed as he delved into the Market Trends dataset to understand the impact on overall stock of all the townhouses we've been consenting and building, particularly in Auckland.Then a look ahead to the launch of the new Hedonic Home Value Index and plenty of other data coming your way. Lastly, Nick passes on some of the wisdom gained from Dominick Stephen's latest presentation - including a new term for the lads -"Slowbilisation".Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Following their own BSOD issues amid the CrowdStrike nightmare, the guys finally get a chance to catch up to review the week that was in the property market. As it turns out it was a good chance to take stock of the overall market, amid the release of the latest CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and monthly video. REINZ' latest data for June also provided an opportunity to assess the latest movements in Auckland and following the initial reactionary podcast, Nick and Kelvin wrap up the market response to the CPI inflation results for Q2. Upshot - interest rate cuts will be sooner.Lastly, and there'll be more to follow on this one, the new CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index was previewed in a webinar last week, ahead of go live on August 1, so keep a look out for that one.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI data for Q2.Headline inflation is now just above the target band of 1-3% but there's plenty of detail and nuance to discuss. Most importantly, what will the RBNZ Monetary Policy make of it when they next meet on 14 August?Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Every week seems to be coming with a little bit more hope of relief for mortgage holders and this week is no different. Following the change in tone of the RBNZ's OCR statement last week, we can now add weak economic data in the form of the NZ Activity Index for June, migration turning negative and further weakness for the property market. The construction industry continues to go through tough times too, though at least from a consumers perspective this means the cost to build is decreasing - as the Cordell Cost Construction for Q2 illustrated.All up it's been a busy week of property data, including Reserve Bank data on the tenure of loans chosen by borrowers in May, rental price figures, CoreLogic Buyer Classification for June and hot off the press REINZ sales for June. Plus, Nick supplied RNZ with some data on 'accidental landlords'.That's it on a tough weekend for the English (rugby, football) and a good one for the Spanish (tennis, football, Sail GP)…Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, Nick chats to Dan Bailey, Adviser for Loan Market Capital & Coast.Before Nick and Dan get into the advisor world, including Dan's experience of the current market, the three guys quickly review the just-released OCR review. In the review, the RBNZ held the rate at 5.5%, but notable softened their stance of the economic environment, increasing chances of a 'sooner than later' cut to the OCR.Dan has a long and successful career in banking and finance and with his knowledge of the Lower Hutt and Wellington markets in particular, he has great insight into the impact of regulation, government intervention and a costly new build market. Plenty of food for thought as we navigate a still-challenging and always intriguing property market.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!There's plenty of property data and news to get into this week as Nick welcomes back Kelvin from a week away from the pod.The CoreLogic House Price Index showed further struggles for the housing market, particularly in Auckland, but perhaps the biggest news came from the Housing Minister who detailed the Government's 'Going for Growth' strategy which is all about improving the availability of land for more properties - going up and out. There's also filled jobs data providing insight on our softening labour market and dwelling consent figures illustrating the still-in-decline construction sector.And it's a big week coming up - OCR decision on Wednesday, which will come with a reactionary and guest podcast special. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With Kelvin away, Nick calls up Ed McKnight, Resident Economist at Opes Partners to discuss everything that's going on in the market right now. Nick and Ed talk through the couple of data releases from last week which are limited to ANZ's confidence survey data and RBNZ lending figures, but they provide plenty of fodder for conversation on the broader market dynamics. Why is confidence so low and where did the big jump in new lending come from?Being 1 July there are also a number of changes which affect the market from today, including the shortening of the Brightline test, introduction of DTI limits and loosening of LVR restrictions. Nick and Ed talk through all the implications of those changes as well as expectations for the OCR and interest rates. Throw in the news of Resimac ceasing new lending operations in NZ and you've got a broad AND deep analysis of the NZ mortgage market as well as an assessment of both investor and owner occupier prospects. Check out Ed's work and the team at Opes Partners at https://www.opespartners.co.nz/Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!How real was the property value growth experienced at the end of 2023? Off the back of the CoreLogic housing chart pack release as well as the REINZ HPI for May, Nick and Kelvin question whether we're in a renewed downturn, or whether it's essentially same one as last year.Sounds a bit grim for homeowners and add in a still-struggling economy (despite GDP expansion in the first quarter of the year) plus a few isolated incidents (ferry running aground, Northland power tower down, air force plane being unreliable) and it appears a pretty bleak picture for Kiwi right now. In more promising news the Government's proposal to make it easier to add granny flats to existing properties sounds sensible, albeit unlikely a game changer. The monthly video is now live, give the extra podcasts last week a listen and keep an eye out for Kelvin's "thoughts from the road" coming this week. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com