The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!What timing for the lockdown to occur! Just as we were awaiting the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and subsequent lift to the Official Cash Rate (OCR), we were put into a snap lockdown, and everything changed!The OCR stayed flat with the Reserve Bank attributing the decision solely to the lockdown and all the unknowns that come with it. Nick and Kelvin discuss the decision, the future and all the other housing detail from the MPS - there was quite a lot!Nick also brings back the early market indicator data in the form of the pre-listing measure of appraisals generated by agents to review the immediate impact of going to alert level 4 last Tuesday night.Kelvin also provides his take on the latest NZ Activity Index, and there's mention of the upcoming Pain & Gain report, plus the monthly video is now live.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!According to the Corelogic Buyer Classification, first home buyers secured their largest (equal) share of purchases in July, but as previously discussed this is likely to change, with tighter lending restrictions ahead.This includes stricter LVR limits and increasing interest rates, which we'll know more about this Wednesday (2pm) as the RBNZ releases its latest Monetary Policy statement. It's the hottest of topics right now so Kelvin provides his preview of the decision.As always, the data and decision are so heavily intertwined and a look back at the latest data releases provides even greater comfort that a rise is on the cards.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!It seems the property market is allergic to having a quiet week, with the biggest news in the last 7 days being the Reserve Bank's proposal to tighten the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions for owner occupiers further. This will impact first home buyers the most and Nick and Kelvin discuss the details of that, along with the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data (LinkedIn post here).Then the labour market statistics stormed the headlines with an incredible result where the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0% - on par with where it was before COVID hit our shores. Discussion about the Official Cash Rate (OCR) has subsequently turned to how many times and how high the OCR will lift as opposed to debating the August decision which seems almost certain to be at least a 0.25% rise.Looking ahead, Kelvin's latest chart on rental prices puts the recent growth into context and there's plenty of other data to look out for this week.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!A big week of data releases in the last seven days are all in some way, shape or form linked to the potential for the official cash rate to increase at the next monetary policy statement release on August 18.More people in jobs (pre-empting a falling unemployment figure this Wednesday) and strong business and consumer finance - with yet more evidence of increasing inflationary expectations are all pushing the OCR in the same direction - up.Meanwhile a property market with strong momentum (lending and value growth) will also provide comfort to the RBNZ that a lift in interest rates will be able to be absorbed by mortgage holders.Keep a look out for the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data out Tuesday 3 August at 6pm.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick joins Kelvin in Christchurch to record in person for the first time ever! A look back at the previous week includes a review of the CoreLogic Quarterly Property Market and Economic Report (free to download), which provides a great opportunity to have a broad chat on the state of the market and expectations for the future. The NZ Activity Index offers up further evidence of our well performing economy, though there's still caution to be had.Then looking ahead the key releases to watch for are RBNZ lending data, monthly jobs information, business and consumer confidence from ANZ and building consent figures for June.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In a big week for economic data the chances of a lift in the official cash rate (OCR) have increased dramatically. Nick and Kelvin firstly cover off the Monetary Policy Review from the RBNZ, where they left the OCR on hold, but announced an almost immediate end to Government bond buying - a clear sign of reduced support for a surprisingly well performing economy.Then, combined with the CPI data for Q2 reporting 3.3% inflation over the prior year, it seems more likely than not that the OCR will be on the move up next month.There was also rental price data for June, firming up the view that the increased cost burden of the interest deductibility changes may well be passing through to tenants.And a quick look over the REINZ HPI data provided further evidence of a slowdown in market growth, with variability around the country perhaps a sign of things to come.Monthly video available on youtube.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In a special guest podcast Nick chats to Rupert Gough, CEO of Mortgage Lab.With so much going on in the lending space Nick and Rupert discuss everything from recent value growth to the trends and impact of the bank of Mum and Dad helping out first home buyers.A review of the latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data leads to what's happening with investors right now, including how the tightened loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions have hindered their activity. Plus some surprise about the reaction to the interest deductibility changes and consideration for the potential impact of debt-to-income limits.To finish off, the guys discuss everything to do with interest rates - including the forecast for the official cash rate (OCR), hot off the heals of the latest RBNZ monetary policy review, and what impact the pending lift in mortgage interest rates could have on the market. Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!We start by looking at the Buyer Classification data for June, and it showed that the expected decline for mortgaged investors’ market share (on the back of the LVR changes) is now firmly underway – and this time it’ll be emphasised by March’s tax changes too. In relation to the current buyer mix, we also cover off some technical aspects of survey evidence and why some results need to be interpreted carefully.It’s also worth noting that the consultation on the Government’s proposals around interest deductibility closes today (12th July).We then move on to discussing the Reserve Bank’s next monetary policy decision and how/when mortgage rates (and the wider economy) might be affected. Perhaps the most important point is that the official cash rate now looks set to rise sooner than had been expected – perhaps even this year, rather than second half of next year.And finally it’s a look ahead to upcoming data – including net migration and rental prices. When it comes to the outlook for rents, our view is that they won’t spike as a result of the tax changes; but we won’t be dogmatically sticking to that view if the data shows it to be wrong.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The latest CoreLogic House Price Index data threw up a few surprises regionally - Gisborne, New Plymouth and Napier all experienced minor drops over the monthly measure. This leads to Nick and Kelvin considering whether we're in for a slowdown in growth or more of a downturn in values.   A recent report from S&P ratings suggested there's a 1 in 3 chance of a correction too, so the guys chat what sort of environment could lead to that happening.From an economic perspective most of the recent data is positive, although inflation concerns are increasingly becoming the most important factor to watch for, with the flow on to interest rates the key consideration.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!We're now three months since the 'big, bold' Government housing announcement, which included the phased removal of interest cost deductibility for investors and an extension to the Brightline test. Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to review any impact from the announced changes. This includes listing supply, mortgage demand, rental prices, buyer activity and value growth.Kelvin also recaps May lending data as reported by the RBNZ, and there's a listener question to delve in to regarding the debt-to-income (DTI) proposals. Thanks to Jon for getting in touch.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com