Nareit's REIT Report Podcast

Commercial real estate continues to provide a solid hedge against inflation, a trend that has been borne out over multiple decades during periods when inflation has exceeded 4%, says Carly Tripp, global chief investment officer and head of investments for Nuveen Real Estate.Speaking on the REIT Report, Tripp noted that Nuveen research shows that compared to other asset classes, commercial real estate was the only one that emerged with an overall net positive return during those inflationary periods.“We always say real estate is an inflation hedge, and we're seeing that play through right now. So it's a good time to be in commercial real estate in my opinion,” Tripp said.

Consumers remain largely confident about their personal situations, despite a host of broader economic and geopolitical concerns, says Tom O’Hern, CEO of Macerich (NYSE: MAC). That sentiment is fueling sales and leasing volumes across the REIT’s portfolio of retail and mixed-use real estate.“The resiliency of the American consumer is amazing, and it is once again on display. Shoppers have come roaring back to our centers to shop with a purpose,” O’Hern told the REIT Report.During the first quarter, sales were 111% of what they were pre-COVID.“Despite the economic uncertainty regarding inflation that we haven't frankly seen in decades, higher mortgage rates, a very volatile stock market, and the war in Ukraine, American consumers remain largely confident about their own situations,” O’Hern said.

Private equity funds, endowments, and large institutional investors will continue to have a large appetite for commercial real estate given the current inflationary environment and geopolitical uncertainty, says John Sullivan, chair of DLA Piper’s U.S. real estate practice and co-chair of its global real estate practice.Speaking on the Nareit REIT Report, Sullivan said that asset classes with the ability to reprice themselves due to short lease cycles, such as multifamily and industrial real estate, “are viewed as a good bet because you can raise your rents to… at least keep up with inflation.”Sullivan highlighted some of the findings of DLA Piper’s 2022 State of the Market survey, including that respondents see logistics, multi-family, life science, and data centers as offering the most attractive risk- adjusted returns for the next 12 months.

Global investment in U.S. real estate is at its strongest-ever level, with non-core markets and multifamily and industrial asset classes continuing to lead the charge in terms of investor interest, according to Gunnar Branson, CEO of AFIRE, the association for international real estate investors focused on commercial property in the U.S.Speaking on the Nareit REIT Report, Branson noted that while there are certainly lots of concerns surrounding global events, “real estate investing is on a terrific pace in the first quarter.”The top property asset class for institutional investors from around the world continues to be multifamily, Branson said, followed by industrial real estate. And while the office asset class will definitely continue to exist, questions remain about which offices are going to succeed, and which will have to rethink the level of capital investment that will be required to compete, he added.

A skills gap within the real estate industry means that to attract talent, firms must adopt human capital strategies that align with changes in employee expectations, says Gemma Burgess, president of Ferguson Partners.Burgess will become CEO of Ferguson, a global professional services firm, on June 1. Speaking on the REIT Report, Burgess attributed a skills gap within the real estate industry to the fact that many mid-level professionals left the field in the wake of the global financial crisis. “We’re definitely facing a missing generation in our industry. That’s suddenly making the succession work more challenging,” she added.Meanwhile, Burgess pointed to changes that have occurred in the workplace. “People want to work in different ways today. They want to work more flexibly. They certainly want to work within an environment where they feel like they belong and that there’s a culture that they believe in, and they can see a future for themselves.”

Although a return to the office has started in earnest, it will take the rest of 2022 to take hold, and even longer before clear patterns of usage emerge, says Julie Whelan, global head of occupier research at CBRE.Speaking on the REIT Report, Whelan said it will likely be 2023 “before we can really start to hang our hat on trends that we can say are stable [in order] to build assumptions about what new work patterns are going to look like.”Whelan described current office usage as “muted…but the good news is that it’s picking up.” Some of the Southern states have seen a higher return to office rate, although in the past week New York and Washington, D.C. actually saw some of the biggest gains, she noted.

Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc . (NYSE: AOMR) CFO Brandon Filson sees the non-qualified mortgage (QM) loan segment reverting over time to its historical level of about 10% of the overall mortgage market, compared to 2% today, providing the mREIT with significant opportunity for growth in the years ahead.Speaking on the REIT Report, Filson noted that 10% of the overall market would be about $200 billion, versus about $25 to $50 billion today.Angel Oak Mortgage, which went public in June 2021, focuses on acquiring and investing in first lien non-QM loans and other mortgage-related assets in the U.S. mortgage market. Non-QM loans are not backed by government agencies and are aimed at homebuyers unable to meet the strict criteria of a qualifying mortgage in areas such as income or personal debt.

Business models are central to corporate performance and wealth creation, and even the most complex models can be reduced to six basic variables, says Chris Volk, a veteran REIT executive, business leader, and author.Speaking on the REIT Report, Volk discussed his upcoming book, The Value Equation, which will be published on May 10.Volk also discussed his career, during which he introduced and led three public companies. One of those was STORE Capital Corp. (NYSE: STOR), his third net lease iteration, formed in 2011. Combined, the companies provided more than $20 billion in growth capital to thousands of businesses, he said.

Capital flow of non-traded alternative investments could grow to a $250 billion a year market within the next five years, with early 2022 data already pointing to a record-breaking year for fundraising in the sector, according to the Institute for Portfolio Alternatives (IPA).Speaking on the REIT Report on April 18, Anya Coverman, SVP, government affairs and general counsel at IPA, said the outlook for 2022 is “incredibly bright. You have Blackstone, Starwood, and other large asset managers leading with a blockbuster year.”Citing research data from Robert A. Stanger & Co., Coverman said sales overall are topping $19.1 billion in January and February. “So, this is already on pace to beat last year's record tally of $70 billion.”

Outside of the industrial sector, residential real estate in the United States “probably has the best supply-demand backdrop in global real estate right now,” says Ryan Dobratz, portfolio manager of the Third Avenue Real Estate Value Fund.Speaking on the REIT Report, Dobratz said he sees “a significant amount of demand for single family housing, in particular within more affordable Sunbelt markets, at the same time that supply is very, very low.”Companies active on the home building side are seeing benefits, Dobratz said, including timber REITs. Timber REITs are going to be able to generate much higher levels of cash flow and ultimately pay much higher dividends, given residential market conditions, he noted. “Timber is also a terrific place to be invested in an inflationary environment.”Dobratz pointed to the war in Ukraine, supply chain issues, and high inflation as issues of macro concern right now. At the same time, he noted that “commercial real estate has historically been a great place to park capital and to protect it from inflation over time.”