Trends with Friends

Hear ye, hear ye. Howard is back on Trends With Friends with an actual friend and streaming insider: Farhad Massoudi, founder of Tubi – the free, ad-supported streaming service he started in 2011, launched in 2014, and sold to Fox for about $500M. Today, Tubi has 100M+ MAUs, $1B+ in revenue, and is profitable… not bad for what everyone once dismissed as “crap tail content.” Farhad walks through how Tubi really worked:Why he bet on the tail of the library (bottom 99%) instead of the sexy top 20 originalsHow Tubi was always a data & AI company that happened to be mediaWhy fragmentation in news, music, and now TV makes the YouTube-style model inevitableThen they go deep on the Netflix–Warner Bros–Paramount–Ellison–Qatar circus:The AT&T → WarnerMedia → Discovery saga and how the bundling thesis already failed twiceWhy Netflix paying a ~180% premium for Warner is, in Farhad’s words, a huge mistakeThe harsh reality: most of Warner’s library is already licensed out (including to Tubi) for yearsWhy Netflix can’t just move the whole library onto its own service without nuking valuable dealsHow international licensing (like Sky in the UK) totally breaks the “just bring it all under Netflix” fantasyWhy the best they can really do is yet another bundle… over many yearsHoward and Farhad also hit: Why YouTube, not Disney/Paramount/Warner, is Netflix’s real competitionHoward’s own shift from “Netflix first” to YouTube first for nightly viewingWhy platforms + algorithms + data will always beat pure curation, except in tiny “Ferrari” nichesThe idea that AI will lower content costs, blow up creation, and make platforms the big winnersHow Ellison’s media buying spree might be a hedge against his massive AI bet (people with more free time need more entertainment)Why it was so hard to raise money for Tubi, why the Fox deal was the right home, and why Farhad still cares about his “baby”A detour into Bravo-ification of Netflix, sports docs, and whether they actually care if you’re watching or just payingPlus some extremely on-brand degeneracy: Persian carpets, 11-foot chest hairs, and showing up to a brutal Italian cycling trip having never clipped into a bikeIf you care about:Streaming wars (Netflix / Warner / Paramount / NBC / Tubi / YouTube)Platforms vs curationAI’s impact on mediaAnd how real operators see this space……this is a masterclass in how the next decade of media might actually play out.Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

The gang is back for a “Code Red” episode of Trends With Friends.Howard is joined by regulars Michael Parekh and Roy Rubin to unpack the real state of the AI wars: Google vs OpenAI, Apple’s quiet dominance at the edge, Amazon’s under-the-radar AI position, and why Tesla’s FSD might be the new definition of luxury.They go deep on:Why there’s now a “code red” inside OpenAI after Google’s Gemini pushHow Google’s distribution edge (Search, Chrome, Android, YouTube) changes the AI gameRoy’s real-world shift from ChatGPT power user → Gemini everyday userThe uncomfortable truth about OpenAI’s business model and subscription fragilityWhy Apple and Amazon may actually be the least appreciated AI winnersHow Tesla FSD and Waymo redefine “the edge” and what luxury means (time)The coming battle over AI agents in e-commerce, Shopify/Magento, and who owns the customerWhy prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket, etc.) might be the new media layer over news & politicsIf you care about where AI, big tech, and commerce are really going over the next 2–3 years — not just the hype — this is the episode.Google vs OpenAI “code red” momentGemini vs ChatGPT and how users are actually behavingApple’s AI moat at the edge (iPhone, iOS, App Store, Siri)Amazon, AWS, and agentic AI for enterprises & e-commerceTesla FSD, Waymo and autonomy as a time-saving utilityAgentic commerce: AI shopping vs merchant-owned funnelsShopify, Magento, marketplaces, and AI as a new distribution layerPrediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) as a new form of media🔢 Chapters00:00 – Welcome to “Trends With Friends: Code Red”01:20 – Roy Rubin intro: Magento, Adobe, and R-Squared Ventures03:00 – Magento’s origin story and the open-source e-commerce era05:30 – From Google’s 2017 transformer paper to today’s AI “code red”09:00 – Google’s TPUs, vertical stack and long-game vs OpenAI12:40 – Roy’s behavior shift: from hourly ChatGPT user to barely opening it16:00 – Usage data, code red at OpenAI & the fragility of subscription revenue18:30 – Ads, incentives, and the “one right answer” problem in AI search21:00 – Apps, agents, and why OpenAI may be crowding out its own ecosystem24:30 – Apple’s AI position: distribution, devices, and Siri’s next act28:00 – Google vs Apple vs Android: ecosystems, habits & where AI really lives31:30 – Browsers, AI search, and why no one downloads new browsers anymore36:00 – Grok on X: nice integration, but will it change user behavior?37:20 – Tesla FSD as the new luxury: time is better than leather; Waymo vs Tesla41:45 – Google, China, Nvidia, and who had to “kiss the ring”42:50 – Amazon & AWS: agents, chips and why they’re underrated in AI46:20 – Anthropic’s enterprise focus and cleaner business model49:45 – Commerce reality check: why AI front-ends are still “all noise”51:40 – Shopify, Magento, walled gardens and agentic commerce54:20 – Prediction markets as a new media layer on top of news56:00 – Final takeaways & what to watch over the next 2–3 yearsDisclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin Capital and a leading crypto investor, takes listeners on a thrilling journey through the future of finance. He discusses the emotional toll of recent bear markets compared to past downturns. Kyle introduces the concept of 'Internet Capital Markets', where trading happens seamlessly across platforms. He explains Solana's role in this evolution, the integration of prediction markets into news and sports, and Forward Industries' ambitious new strategies. Plus, insights on the intersection of AI and crypto power this transformative vision.

Dive into the chaotic world of the 'Degenerate Economy,' where speculation meets entertainment. Discover how platforms like Robinhood and Twitter have turned trading into a modern pastime. Explore the cultural shift post-COVID, making gambling a norm for many. Delve into the rise of crypto as a new form of belief, and learn about modern vice stocks like Philip Morris and their role in this evolving landscape. This discussion uncovers the thrilling, risky dynamics of today's financial frontier.

Jeff Park, a former Wall Street professional now thriving in the crypto space at Bitwise, shares insights on the transformation of investment strategies. He discusses the demise of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, emphasizing the relevance of Bitcoin treasuries for modern companies. The team explores risk dynamics, the potential of AI in prediction markets, and how these trends are changing the landscape of capital markets. They also tackle Elon Musk's Tesla troubles and BYD's rise in China, showcasing the evolving future of finance.

Ed Sim, a seasoned venture capitalist at Boldstart Ventures, shares his insights on the rapidly evolving startup landscape. He discusses how founders are abandoning old strategies and the crucial role of AI in shaping new ventures. The conversation dives into the fierce competition for talent, with big tech 'strip-mining' startups for skilled professionals. Ed also highlights the importance of infrastructure in the tech sector and offers a comparison of companies like BYD and Tesla in today's market.

Vlad Tenev, co-founder and CEO of Robinhood, shares his insights on the company’s evolution from a startup to a fintech powerhouse. He discusses the pivotal moments in Robinhood’s journey, including the explosive growth after launching their waitlist and the tumultuous GameStop trading episode. Vlad reflects on the challenges of navigating regulations and raising funds, while revealing his passion for product innovation. With a focus on leadership dynamics and future opportunities in banking, this interview offers an inside look at the world of modern investing.

Michael Parekh, a former Goldman Sachs employee with over two decades in finance, joins Tom Bruni, a market insights guru from Stocktwits. They tackle the declining container ship traffic from China due to rising tariffs and a surprising political shift in Canada that's got markets on edge. The discussion also dives into the chaotic nature of the current economy, the behavioral challenges traders face, and the impact of Amazon's tariff warnings on retail. It's a lively blend of economic analysis and humorous anecdotes from the trading world!

Join Howard Lindzon, Phil Pearlman, Michael Parekh, and special guest Jeff Richards (GP at Notable Capital, $10B AUM) as they break down the chaos of today’s markets and the long-term promise of AI and American innovation. From Tesla’s fading dominance and the flood of Chinese EVs, to self-driving disruption, the flight from U.S. assets, and even betting on the next Pope—the crew covers it all. A full-spectrum conversation on growth, degeneracy, macro risk, and why patience may be the sharpest tool in your portfolio.📅 Recorded April 22nd, 2025🎙️ Special Guest: Jeff Richards, General Partner at Notable Capital🔑 Brought to you by Stocktwits Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/e/2PACX-1vSIU7WPtLf4q3-e5KYUO6KUTCyRsXL4_vWCdKukc7nwsVt3p1_1UcC2cFLdCCZCF3UQB97ceU1a0zmO/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000🚘 Tesla vs. the World – EV competition, declining sales, and used Teslas piling up🤖 AI Is Still Early – Why VCs are long on infrastructure and private innovation📉 Are We in a Self-Inflicted Recession? – The real risk behind rising tariffs and policy chaos📈 The Case for Long-Term Optimism – Why the innovation cycle will outlast the headlines📊 Buffett's Cash & the Waiting Game – What Warren’s $300B war chest signals📉 Flight to Europe? – Why European banks are quietly surging🧠 Behavioral Finance 101 – The power of patience, planning, and not panic-selling🎰 The Degenerate Economy Lives – Robinhood betting, Kalshi markets, and 14-year-olds betting on WNBA💡 Will the Next Pope Be Pietro? – Yes, that’s an actual market on KalshiWhere To Find Howard and Friends:• Howard - https://stocktwits.com/howardlindzon• Phil - https://stocktwits.com/ppearlman• Michael Parekh - https://stocktwits.com/MParekh• Jeff Richards - https://x.com/jrichliveDisclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

Zach Ingrasci, a filmmaker renowned for his work on technology and culture, joins the discussion to delve deep into Vitalik Buterin's fascinating journey and the making of his documentary. The conversation highlights the nuanced storytelling in a fragmented media landscape. They also explore the fierce tech rivalry between the U.S. and China, particularly in AI advancements. Additionally, they touch on the unpredictable crypto market trends, reflecting on investor psychology in these turbulent times.