Trends with Friends

Growth, Degeneracy & The End of Confidence in the United States

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Apr 22, 2025
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INSIGHT

Tesla's Self-Driving Lead

  • Tesla holds a massive lead in self-driving software and service capabilities over competitors.
  • Tesla, Waymo, and Uber will be major players in autonomous driving fleets within 5 to 10 years.
INSIGHT

Robo-Taxi Limitations in U.S.

  • Robo-taxi adoption in the U.S. will be limited, representing about 10% of driving over 5-10 years.
  • Most Americans use cars for varied family and recreational purposes, not just urban transit.
ADVICE

Ride Out AI Innovation Cycle

  • Ignore short-term market noise and focus on long-term innovation trends like AI.
  • Bet on strong founders and companies positioned to leverage AI's transformative impact.
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