Run the Numbers
CJ Gustafson
Run the Numbers is a twice-weekly podcast about financial metrics and business models, designed for ambitious people operating tech startups. It's a collection of things host CJ Gustafson (CFO at Partstech and writer of Mostly Metrics) has learned and thought about in the trenches as a tech CFO.
This show is meant to serve as a playbook of sorts for the stuff CJ wishes he knew earlier in his career, both from experience and from copying people smarter than himself.
Topics frequently touch upon Startup SaaS Metrics, Annual Budgeting, Financial Forecasting, Headcount, Equity, Dilution, and Fundraising – and how all of these drive business performance and growth. cjgustafson.substack.com
This show is meant to serve as a playbook of sorts for the stuff CJ wishes he knew earlier in his career, both from experience and from copying people smarter than himself.
Topics frequently touch upon Startup SaaS Metrics, Annual Budgeting, Financial Forecasting, Headcount, Equity, Dilution, and Fundraising – and how all of these drive business performance and growth. cjgustafson.substack.com
Episodes
Mentioned books
Sep 27, 2025 • 56min
Prompt Anxiety, Sad Dinners, & the $8B Question
Dive into the quirks of startup culture with tales of sad LinkedIn dinners and baffling AI-driven UX trends. Explore the eyebrow-raising case of a $613M company pushing for an $8B valuation and whether referral programs are a sustainable growth strategy or a marketing trap. The hosts debate the implications of 'prompt anxiety' in software and the ethics of disclosing AI-generated content. Plus, learn about Arnold Schwarzenegger's surprising comedy debut and how Reese Witherspoon cleverly uses her book club to fuel her media empire.
Sep 25, 2025 • 1h 19min
Cowboy Forecasting: The Power of Fast Informed Estimates on the Back of an Envelope
Kevin Drost, CFO of New Era ADR and former chief strategy officer at Reverb, blends his music background with finance insights. He champions 'cowboy forecasting,' a simple yet effective method for early-stage startups that can outperform complex models. Drost explores the disruption of traditional legal pricing through flat fees and faster dispute resolution. He emphasizes the importance of every team member understanding finance, and he shares valuable lessons from his journey, including the benefits of starting a business young.
Sep 22, 2025 • 51min
The Hidden ROI of Generosity: Meghan McKenna on How Human Connection Closes Deals
In this insightful discussion, Meghan McKenna, founder of Females in Finance and a seasoned banker, delves into the power of human connections in finance. She emphasizes a people-first approach, highlighting how genuine relationships trump transactional mindsets. Meghan shares her thoughts on the evolution of banking, the rise of modular fintech, and the crucial role of personal connections during the SVB crisis. With candid career reflections and networking insights, she inspires finance professionals to prioritize authenticity and build trust.
16 snips
Sep 20, 2025 • 58min
996 Workweeks, Exploding AI Bills & The SaaS Payback Problem
Kyle Poyar, a growth and market analyst with a knack for SaaS economics, delves into the exploding costs of AI and the impact on company culture. He tackles the unsustainable 996 workweek trend fueled by rising expenses, explains why usage-based pricing can entrap customers, and discusses the challenges of recouping customer acquisition costs. Poyar also introduces the 'cracked engineer' archetype and draws parallels with subscription models in unexpected places, shedding light on the complexities of today’s market.
17 snips
Sep 18, 2025 • 1h 13min
“90% of VCs Are Neutral to Negative Value”: Kyle Harrison on the Evolving Game of Venture Capital
Kyle Harrison, General Partner at Contrary and writer of the Investing 101 Substack, shares keen insights into the shifting landscape of venture capital. He discusses the varying incentives between capital agglomerators and cottage keepers, emphasizing how fund size influences strategy. The conversation dives into the ethical complexities of funding rival AI projects and the impact of dilution on founders. Harrison also examines the blurred lines between hype and real business value in AI, highlighting the power of narrative in shaping market perceptions.
Sep 15, 2025 • 1h 21min
TikTok Will Beat Amazon, Google Is Going to Zero, and Other Wild Predictions With VC Turner Novak
Turner Novak, Founder and Managing Partner of Banana Capital, offers sharp insights on digital monetization and the shifting landscape in tech. He argues that TikTok could threaten Amazon, while ChatGPT may diminish Google's user base. The discussion highlights innovative monetization strategies, especially through tiered pricing and memes as marketing tools. Turner also emphasizes adapting acquisition strategies in an AI-driven world, and explores the promising opportunities in food and healthcare investments, reflecting on the evolving startup environment.
16 snips
Sep 13, 2025 • 22min
How Much Revenue Do You Need to IPO in 2025?
The podcast dives into the shifting landscape of tech IPOs, revealing how revenue thresholds have changed dramatically in recent years. In 2010, $100 million was the standard, but today's expectations are much higher. The journey of companies like Figma post-acquisition attempts showcases the real-world implications of these standards. It also discusses why some firms choose to remain private and the impact of market dynamics on public companies. Finally, it emphasizes the necessity of reaching at least $500 million in revenue for an attractive IPO valuation.
28 snips
Sep 11, 2025 • 1h 12min
Humans, Robots, and Agents: UiPath on Agentifying Your Business in the Age of AI
Hitesh Ramani, Deputy CFO and Chief Accounting Officer at UiPath, shares his insights on leveraging AI and automation in finance. He discusses the transformative role of agentic automation and the balance between human and robotic workers. Hitesh reveals how UiPath ties employee bonuses to AI adoption and explains the critical strategies for going public successfully. The conversation dives into real-world AI applications in finance and emphasizes the importance of governance and trust in adopting these technologies.
Sep 8, 2025 • 1h 2min
Selling Your Company? A Silicon Valley Lawyer’s Guide to Not Getting Screwed Over
David Siegel, a partner at Grellas Shah LLP, offers invaluable insights into the art of selling a tech company. He discusses the critical importance of preparation and understanding buyer dynamics in today's M&A landscape. Learn about the 'awkward middle' valuation range of $150-$350 million, risks of relying on bankers, and how to avoid common pitfalls in Letters of Intent. Siegel emphasizes the emotional realities for founders when selling their ‘baby,’ and provides strategies for de-risking before hitting the market.
10 snips
Sep 6, 2025 • 9min
Do PE Companies Trade Innovation for Margins?
Private equity firms often prioritize operational efficiency, but at what cost? The tension between innovation and profit margins is explored, shedding light on the magical 25% operating margin in software. Discover the concept of the Rule of 50 and the dangers of cutting R&D, which can lead firms down the path of an 'Innovation Death Spiral.' The discussion emphasizes the importance of balancing short-term gains with long-term sustainability to avoid compromising future growth.
