Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast

Our guest this week was David Cervantes, founder of Pine Brook Capital Management. With a rich and diverse background within the investment industry, in the last few years David has dedicated his time to managing his family office and has been developing a macroeconomic framework that considers the objectives and incentives of policymakers as the primary economic drivers. Our conversation included topics such as: Empirical economic analyses and insights from the ‘school of hard knocks’ Fundamentally, a process of elimination – determining first what not to do Less theory, more data Where his approach materially diverges from traditional economics Cognitive Perspective – treating models with respect, but never reverence Macroeconomics is basically ‘political economy in drag’ A dynamic process of incentives and decisions made by political actors The role of ‘timing luck’ (or misfortune) A stroll down history lane – from WWII and the Great Society to the present A closer look at the gargantuan US federal budget deficit Current backdrop – an ‘inflationary supernova’ fueled by fiscal impulse The Fed’s current reaction function Home prices, OER and how they affect CPI Why interest rate volatility matters significantly more than absolute levels How interest rate vol spills over into the risk premia continuum And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority. 

This week we had the pleasure of speaking with Bob Elliot (who can be found on Twitter @BobEUnlimited), CIO at Unlimited, a new investment firm that launched a hedge fund replication strategy in ETF format. Our conversation included: Bob’s career and especially his years at Bridgewater Associates The synergies between macro research and systematic investing Systems that create discipline and leverage (the non-financial kind) A better sense-making process within an investment framework Why most intuitions are inaccurate Identifying inconsistencies between one’s framework and new data How the signaling power and precision of any variable can change over time Dealing with the scarcity of macro data points within a systematic approach Why there is no such thing as a single most important variable in macro investing No certainty, just a probabilistic range of outcomes Why diversification is one of the fundamental laws of asset management The importance of maximizing the number of independent bets in low signal-to-noise domains Why the starting point for Bob’s personal portfolio is Risk Parity The folly of singularly focusing on the S&P500 Avoid going “all-in” into any single scenario, no matter how compelling the narrative And so much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

For the opening episode of the new year we had the pleasure of speaking with Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Research, which seeks to democratize access to elite financial research to the general public. This great conversation covered several topics, including: A macro framework focused on the interplay between the real and financial economies, and the business cycle The main driving forces in markets and the economy: growth, inflation and liquidity Key variables for measuring liquidity Creating the condition for potential asymmetric returns How the increase in the stock of assets facilitates other activities The original aim of quantitative easing The contest between the ‘Dot Plot’ and the yield curve The signaling mechanism of price levels The biases and shortcomings of the CPI Cyclical vs secular inflation How economies have evolved in the last few decades Why inflation volatility may be asymmetric The false diversification of the 60/40 Why increased uncertainty usually signals a turning point Updating priors – a ‘burden of evidence’ approach Fluctuating edges and the challenges of volatility targeting And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Our guest this week was Dr. Andrew Butler, Chief Investment Officer here at ReSolve. He has an Honors B.Sc. in Applied Mathematics & Physics from Memorial University, an M.A. in Applied Mathematics & Statistics, Financial Engineering from York University, and a PhD from the University of Toronto, Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering. Our conversation covered:   Mentors, studying optimization, machine learning and emulating similarities Comparing methodologies used in calculating oil reserves, with empirical finance Mathematics, known truths, soft axioms and assumptions Data science, tools and hypothesis tests in finance Comparing the definitions of “noise” and different scientific methods Regression types, relationships and features Existing models vs creating models with data Hyperparameters, universes, good decision-making and edges The fallacy of “The Efficient Frontier” in Modern Portfolio Theory Methods that make for good choices, and setting expectations Neural Networks, financial data extraction and optimization science Building complex models, integrating and optimizing predictions, and making decisions Counterintuitive predictions and “explainability” – integrated vs optimized models Optimizing for decision accuracy by minimizing prediction error Using Decision Trees, Ensembles and Boosting Market data and making predictions using de-coupled vs integrated approaches Training models and optimizing, going forward Optimal covariance shrinkage and minimizing error Constrained vs unconstrained mean variance portfolios, de-coupled vs integrated, in a managed futures context The effect of constraints in limiting models from being “different” The practical takeaways about integrated solutions for Advisors and Portfolio Managers The value of humility in optimizing for financial markets – knowledge, wisdom and experience Stochastic dominance vs t-tests Time horizons – size matters The Consultant Industry – monthly data vs understanding process And much more   This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Our guest this week was Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at Stonex. StoneX (formerly known as INTL FCStone) is an institutional-grade financial services network that connects companies, organizations, traders and investors to the global markets ecosystem through a unique blend of digital platforms, end-to-end clearing and execution services, high-touch service and deep expertise. Our conversation covered:   Comparing the narratives from other allocators Is the Fed Pivot here now and will there be a soft landing The rise of structural inflation since before COVID and where will it settle Why the Fed is attempting to show that it “tried” Underestimating the strength of the economy Accepting that Growth, Austerity or Inflation are the solutions How China saved the Fed Bubbles of Bubbles and Ponzi schemes vs fundamentally driven growth Shifting from monetary to fiscal dominance The effects of automation on labor requirements Irrational American optimism vs European pessimism Political influences on monetary policy and the challenges of “onshoring” Adjusting the price, not the quantity The effects of the rates of change The possibility of equities and bonds returning to normal correlations Pension funds, interest rates, central banks and commodities The importance of diversified portfolios with sophisticated hedges And much more   This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.    

Our guest this week was Bradley Barrie, president and CEO of Dynamic Alpha Solution, a firm that is reshaping the way US advisors think about asset allocation through their multi-dimensional framework. Our conversation covered: His early career and almost becoming a math teacher Embracing difference and uniqueness from the very beginning The barren landscape for alternative strategies in the 1990s Style drift and closet indexers False diversification Defining Multi-Dimensional Asset Allocation Structural diversification and pairing complimentary styles Outsourced CIO tailored for financial advisors Recognizing the importance of investor psychology Smoothing out the path for portfolios as the ultimate objective The three Ps of qualitative analysis Sharpe vs Sortino And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Alfonso – also known as MacroAlf – joined Adam and Mike to discuss his most recent report entitled “Yes, But When Recession?” Our conversation covered: Alf’s experience managing a $20B multi-asset book at a global bank Experience launching an independent macro newsletter for greater freedom of views Benefits of interacting with central bankers, regulators and senior officials at the bank Currently focused on recession – when and how bad will it be? Economic, social and market impacts of recessions How recession might change the Fed’s reaction function Powell and other central bankers questioning the benefits of QE and whether Fed may have a different reaction function this time Exploring the pros and cons of QE Why banks lend, and why they didn’t want to lend over the past decade of QE? Powell’s focus on Volcker and implications for policy trajectory Expectations for a second leg down and the 2000 – 2002 analog What happens in bear markets after Fed pivots? Prospects for a longer, grinding bear market Impact of high returns on cash competing with low returns on real estate and other risk assets Character of stock market bottoms in a cyclical downturn Market indicators of recession and inflation risk using Alf’s Volatility Adjusted Market Dashboard Negative credit impulse signaling recession in Q2 2023 Impact of rate of change vs level of credit given enormous surge in bank reserves in 2020 Leading indicators suggesting recession in late Q2 2023 Housing market and Sahm Rule implying recession in Q2 2023 Expectations for returns on stocks, bonds and other assets over the next several years *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Our guest this week was Mark Yusko, founder, chief investment officer and managing director of Morgan Creek Capital Management. With deep experience in both digital assets and traditional finance, Mark took us on a rollercoaster as we dissected the recent turmoil affecting the ‘crypto-verse’. Topics included: A post-mortem of the FTX debacle – an evolving situation with many missing pieces The sequence of events that led to the debacle Why Mark passed on the opportunity to invest… three times Useful idiots? Conspiracy theories versus actual conspiracies You can’t ban a decentralized system, but you ‘assassinate its character’ The due diligence failure of high-profile capital allocators Fiduciary responsibility gone awry Parallels with other frauds and characters An analogy between digital assets and the Eurodollar system Bitcoin as the base layer of a future monetary system Displacing trust with truth Innovation – why timing is key Exciting ventures and projects for the coming years With every investment we get richer or wiser… never both And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

It was our great privilege to welcome Mark Rzepczynski this week. Mark has over 25 years of experience in financial markets, is a former finance professor and writes frequently about global markets and quantitative investing. Our conversation covered: His early years, ‘forged in the chaos of the trading pits’ Pursuing a PhD and recognizing a career in research was not for him Working for John Henry – an apprenticeship in trend following Finding one’s comparative advantage and sticking to it Why trend following had a bad reputation when the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) was still regarded as the law of the land Trend following as the first derivative of the EMH Understanding how markets actually behave, as opposed to how they should Prices are primal Uncertainty as the gap between what you don’t know and what you should know The interplay between price action and narrative Specialists can be tremendously myopic, while trend followers seek to be the ultimate, rules-based generalists Black Box vs Glass Box Trend following as a signal to noise problem The dirty secret of trend-following – when most of the money is actually made And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

We have been eagerly waiting for this one for a while! Our friend Mike Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, returned to the podcast this week. Always thought-provoking, Mike journeyed with us through a wide range of topics that included: Why the enthusiasm for central bank intervention is so asymmetric Options trading and the wild swings in Zero Days to Expiration Options (0DTE) Statistical anomalies in the labor market The primary drivers of inflation in the 1970s A comparison between Volcker and Powell Monetary policy as a blunt tool and powerful opioid – numbing investors and delaying reforms Tax arbitrage by big corporations and why they must end A path to political moderation in the US Why tighter monetary policy may be the wrong policy right now A criticism of the Fed – authority, legitimacy, and reach Reasons for underinvestment in US energy production Why the capital allocation process in the US economy is largely broken An update on the recent dynamics of passive investment vehicles Home ownership, nimbyism, and affordability The importance of the Minsky Framework for the current environment “If you’re not doing macro, macro is doing you” And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.   *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.