Prometheus Research: Navigating a Potential 2023 Global Recession

For the opening episode of the new year we had the pleasure of speaking with Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Research, which seeks to democratize access to elite financial research to the general public. This great conversation covered several topics, including:

• A macro framework focused on the interplay between the real and financial economies, and the business cycle
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• The main driving forces in markets and the economy: growth, inflation and liquidity
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• Key variables for measuring liquidity
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• Creating the condition for potential asymmetric returns
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• How the increase in the stock of assets facilitates other activities
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• The original aim of quantitative easing
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• The contest between the ‘Dot Plot’ and the yield curve
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• The signaling mechanism of price levels
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• The biases and shortcomings of the CPI
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• Cyclical vs secular inflation
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• How economies have evolved in the last few decades
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• Why inflation volatility may be asymmetric
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• The false diversification of the 60/40
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• Why increased uncertainty usually signals a turning point
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• Updating priors – a ‘burden of evidence’ approach
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• Fluctuating edges and the challenges of volatility targeting
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• And much more

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc.

*ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.