The Most Accurate Podcast

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, George Kritikos and Nick Whalen join Greg to preview the 2020 NFL Draft. They warm up with recent news on Rob Gronkowski's return and the trade rumors surrounding Leonard Fournette. From there, your hosts share some general strategy regarding potential impacts of COVID-19 on fantasy, how quickly rookies should take to start producing in the pros, and how to approach the dynasty trade market around the NFL Draft. The conversation turns next to draft capital and how it should be weighed differently for each position, followed by an accounting of which NFL teams should be targeting which positions. The show closes with a comparison of the top-12 rookies for George and Nick pre-draft. LinksNFL Draft Prospect Best Fits by George KritikosThe Graduates by Nick WhalenYards Created by Graham BarfieldSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: George Kritikos - @RotoHackGuest: Nick Whalen - @_NickWhalenHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Anthony Amico joins Greg for another best ball draft strategy bonanza, but the episode begins with a more general news discussion of the recent trade of Brandin Cooks from the Rams to the Texans, plus Kansas City's signing of DeAndre Washington. From there, your hosts dive into best ball, starting with an assessment of the ZeroRB draft strategy. Anthony makes his case for how it can work and details some of the nuances to keep in mind when navigating through a structured drafting approach. Next, the conversation turns to Anthony's machine learning prospect models for running backs and wide receivers, explaining how he uses the models' hit-rate estimates to help find values with rookies in best ball drafts. Around the 25-minute mark, Greg and Anthony dive headfirst into wide receivers, kicking things off with Corey Davis, AJ Brown, and DeVante Parker as examples of some of the different types of wideouts you can target in best ball. Then they go back to the top of wide receiver ADP and work their way down, from potential busts in the top tier down to rookies and other intriguing dart throws in the double-digit rounds. As if that wasn't enough, tight end talk kicks off around the 63-minute mark. Your hosts identify some of the best late-round values at the position, then use that frame of reference to discuss which higher-ranked tight ends are worth their best ball draft costs.LinksRB Prospect Model by Anthony AmicoWR Prospect Model by Anthony AmicoBest Ball ADP at 4for4.comFFPC WR Win Rates by Andrew FleischerFanball WR Win Rates by Andrew FleischerFFPC TE Win Rates by Jennifer EakinsFanball TE Win Rates by Jennifer EakinsHow Draft Dates Impact Best Ball Scoring by Justin Edwards7 Players to Target in Best Ball before the NFL Draft by 4for4's StaffSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: Anthony Amico - @amicstaHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, TJ Calkins joins Greg for a full helping of draft strategy for best ball leagues. A quick refresher of the format kicks off the show, followed by some top-down thoughts on diversifying player exposure across various best ball drafts. The bulk of the show then drills down into individual positions, starting with running back, followed by defense and quarterback. Is there a contrarian case to be made against Christian McCaffrey as the first overall pick? Does Aaron Jones' fantasy value merit his ADP's rise into the first round? Which 2020 running backs have the best chance of reproducing the types of value spikes that Jones, Austin Ekeler, and Miles Sanders returned drafters in 2019? What other values are there to be had at RB, and how late can those potential values be expected to last in drafts? What is the right number of defenses to draft, and in what rounds is it worth considering them? Which mid-tier and bottom-tier defensive units have the best shot at out-kicking their coverage this season? At what point in a draft do the top quarterbacks become values? Do best ball leagues with an overall prize change the calculus of when to draft passers? How much of a premium should be put on rushing quarterbacks? Which QBs provide the most value relative to their current ADPs, and which should be avoided? When is it correct to stack a quarterback with his offensive teammates? Tune in for takes on all these questions and more.LinksFFPC Roster Construction Strategy by Chris AllenFanball Roster Construction Strategy by Chris AllenFanball Player Win Rates by Andrew FleischerFanball RB Win Rates by Jennifer EakinsFFPC RB Win Rates by Jennifer EakinsSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: TJ Calkins - @TJCalkinsHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Mike Woellert joins Greg to dig into all things defense from the realm of fantasy football. The show kicks off with a discussion around how the offseason has reshaped the landscape of team defenses and special teams (D/ST). Then the remainder of the episode is dedicated to individual defensive players (IDP). Which NFL teams won and which teams lost on the defensive side of the ball through free agency? Why should fantasy players consider trying out IDP leagues, and what can they expect once they dive in? Which veteran IDP assets have seen their fantasy values shift over the offseason? Who are the most valuable defensive rookies in the 2020 class for IDP fantasy, and where should they be picked in dynasty rookie drafts? Greg and Mike have you covered on all these questions, so tune in and learn how to dial up the perfect fantasy defense regardless of how you play.LinksAnatomy of a Perfect IDP Fantasy Football Draft by Mike Woellert (2019)Subscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: Mike Woellert - @Mike_WoellertHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, John Paulsen joins Greg to identify fantasy football's winners and losers from the NFL's free agency period. The conversation begins at running back, headlined by the trade of David Johnson to Houston.  Quarterbacks are next, as some passers like Tom Brady have new homes, while others have new supporting casts. The discussion then turns to wide receivers and tight ends, where plenty of fantasy fortunes are set to change based on the spinning of the offseason's quarterback carousel.  The show winds down with a quick accounting of the highest profile players who are still available in free agency or by trade.LinksFantasy Free Agency Winners & Losers by John Paulsen2020 Free Agency Tracker by John PaulsenNever-Too-Early Fantasy Rankings by John Paulsen2019 Deep Ball Project by John Kinsley2018 Deep Ball Project by John KinsleyQuarterback Next Gen Stats at NFL.comSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: John Paulsen - @4for4_JohnHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, George Kritikos joins Greg for an updated assessment of the dynasty landscape. They begin with the impacts of free agency, in terms of veterans gaining and losing value, but also in terms of unfilled roles with NFL teams that might be addressed through the draft. The rest of the show is dedicated to the incoming rookie class. George lays out his top-12 rookies overall, noting risers and fallers in the wake of the NFL combine, then your hosts profile a handful of other runnings backs and wide receivers who saw their dynasty stock shift as a result of the underwear olympics. The episode winds down with the same sort of analysis applied to this year's top rookie quarterbacks and tight ends.LinksPost-Combine Dynasty Top 200 by George KritikosNFL Combine Winners & Losers by Nick WhalenPost-Combine 4-Round Rookie Mock Draft by George KritikosRanking the Top Rookie Receivers by Scott Barrett at PFF (Pre-Combine)Subscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: George Kritikos - @RotoHackHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Chris Allen joins Greg for a primer on the best ball format of fantasy football. They begin by laying how it works, touching on some of the pros and cons of best ball's (typical) draft-only setup along the way. Next, your hosts  discuss  some of the fundamental principles of best ball drafting, including the elevated importance of bye weeks,  the risks and rewards of embracing variance,  and the value of average draft position (ADP). Optimal roster constructions are the next topic, springboarding off Chris' recent article detailing the most successful best ball builds from the FFPC in 2019 (linked below), then the show winds down with your hosts identifying some of their biggest questions for the offseason related to best ball values of players around the NFL.LinksFFPC Best Ball Strategy: Roster Constructions by Chris AllenChris Allen's Archives at Dynasty League FootballChris Allen's Archives at numberFireSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: Chris Allen - @ChrisAllenFFWXHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

John and Anthony take a look back at the 2019 season, highlighting the top fantasy producers at each position and discussing where they were drafted during the summer. They also look at the so-called "busts" in the first and second rounds, to see if there are any lesson to be learned. The duo also discuss John's Never-Too-Early rankings for 2020, which were just published on the site.

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Nick Whalen joins Greg to weigh in on the key storylines entering the 2020 NFL Combine. They begin by discussing news around a few prominent veterans and the impending free agent quarterback carousel, then dive into the combine and 2020 rookie class. Nick outlines the most important aspects of the combine relative to his film based analysis before digging in deeper to the nuances of that process of grinding tape. How much of a difference does one year of age make? How much value should fantasy owners assign to pass-catching ability from running backs? How important are special teams contributions? How does one stay objective in the face of the variability of schemes, supporting casts, strengths of schedule, etc. in the college game? How can we sniff out and avoid "combine warriors?" Tune in for a glimpse into the mind of Mr. Whalen, and stick around for his top-12 rookie rankings leading into next week's underwear olympics. LinksProjected Draft Value of 2020 Rookies by Nick WhalenDynastyNerds.comSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: Nick Whalen - @_NickWhalenHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Scott Fish joins Greg to review the 2019 fantasy football season. They touch on scenarios for how the Scott Fish Bowl (#SFB9) finals will play out on Monday Night Football, whether or not the scoring settings "worked," and other potential changes to the SFB format going forward. Afterward, your hosts discuss the fantasy season more generally, including what they'll remember most from the year, notable results from their leagues, and a couple other lessons and takeaways. The second half of the show puts Greg on his own to recap his booms and busts of Week 16, then preview Week 17. Which games matter the most for the NFL playoffs, and how will they impact fantasy? Where will the Seahawks turn at running back in the wake of injuries to Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise? Can Damien Williams or Kerryon Johnson be trusted? Which backups are primed to go off in what should be a week of rest for Baltimore's starters? Hunter Renfrow, Steven Sims Jr., or Greg Ward? Tune in to hear Greg's takes on these questions and more, and thanks for listening.The show is brought to you by FantasyDraft. Sign up using the promo code 4for4 and you’ll get a free 7-day trial membership.LinksScott Fish BowlSafeLeaguesCommission: Impossible Podcast with Scott Fish & Ryan McDowellNFL Playoff Picture at ESPNWaiver Wire Articles at 4for4.comStreaming Articles at 4for4.comSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: Scott Fish - @ScottFish24Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com