The Most Accurate Podcast

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Greg digs into how to account for Point Per Reception (PPR) and Point Per First Down (PP1D) scoring settings in fantasy football. The show starts with an overall guide for what to look for when trying to project receptions and first downs. What player attributes and on-field circumstances drive a player to catch more passes or earn more first downs for his team? After answering those general questions, Greg reviews specific players and player archetypes at running back (10:05), wide receiver (27:20), and tight end (40:03) who see their projected rankings change when the scoring settings for PPR and PP1D change.LinksRankings and Projections at 4for4.comSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Pat Kerrane joins Greg to talk about the concept of projection errors and how those errors should impact our fantasy analysis, with a general slant toward the running back position and ZeroRB structural drafting. Your hosts identify key sources of projection errors, with conversation about which sources are most easily identified and exploited. The discussion then turns toward specific cases where projection errors figure to pop up for the 2020 NFL season. Which teams are the most difficult to project? Which teams are likely being over-projected, and which teams are likely being under-projected? Tune in to find out.LinksZeroRB with Pat Kerrane on the Establish The Run PodcastHow to Hit on a Later-Round RB by Pat KerraneSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: Pat Kerrane - @PatKerraneHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, TJ Hernandez joins Greg to dig into general strategy around the quarterback position in fantasy football. They springboard from TJ's recent article about potential studs and duds at QB to discuss other players at the position who could over or under perform expectations in 2020. After those player-specific evaluations, your hosts zoom out and discuss their overall strategies for drafting quarterbacks, including some notes on how the late-round quarterback approach is changing in 1QB leagues and how to mine value at quarterback in 2QB/Superflex leagues. The show winds down with Greg going solo on how scoring settings affect relative quarterback values, using 4for4's projects to identify which QBs rise and fall depending on the values of passing touchdowns and interceptions.Links5 Quarterback Studs & Duds for 2020 by TJ HernandezStrength of Schedule Hot Spots at 4for4.comSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: TJ Hernandez - @TJHernandezHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

Let's talk tight ends! Is the position top-heavy again this year or is there value to be had in the later rounds? Is it worthwhile to draft a stud tight end in the first three rounds? What about the middle rounds--was Tyler Higbee's breakout for real or a function of the Rams' offense late last year? Will Hayden Hurst pick up where Austin Hooper left off? Will there be enough targets for Hooper in Cleveland so he can maintain his value? What should owners expect from Gronk after a year off? Is Blake Jarwin's breakout canceled after the Cowboys' drafted CeeDee Lamb? Was Mike Gesicki's late-season production a sign of things to come? Can Jonnu Smith step into the No. 2 receiving role in Tennessee's run-heavy offense? Can Ian Thomas capitalize on Greg Olsen's departure? Will Chris Herndon pick up where he left off after a good rookie season? John and Anthony discuss these topics (and more) on the latest episode of The Most Accurate Podcast.

Let's talk wide receivers! Will Allen Robinson thrive with a likely quarterback change in Chicago? How will the Rams' offense change without Brandin Cooks in the lineup? Is Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf the WR1 in Seattle? Is Odell Beckham destined for a bounce-back season with a new regime in Cleveland? Will Courtland Sutton build on a breakout season with the addition of Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler? Is DeVante Parker the clear WR1 in Miami with Preston Williams back? What does the arrival of Philip Rivers do to T.Y. Hilton's short-term outlook? What should owners expect from A.J. Green in 2020? John and Anthony discuss these questions (and more) before looking at a few late-round receiver gems.

Let's talk John's running back rankings! Are there any concerns with anyone in the top 10? Is Kenyan Drake for real? Is Miles Sanders a safe first-round pick with rumors that the Eagles are looking to add a backup? Is Nick Chubb going to turn in RB1 numbers with Kareem Hunt siphoning off touches? Should owners expect more of the same from Austin Ekeler and Chris Carson? How will the Denver backfield shake out? What should owners expect out of James Conner, Mark Ingram and Le'Veon Bell? Will Raheem Mostert continue his late-season production from last year? Who are the mid- to late-round backs that have a chance to outperform their current draft position? John and Anthony answer these questions and more on the latest episode of The Most Accurate Podcast.

John and Anthony are back! Will Clyde Edwards-Helaire lead the KC backfield as a rookie? Can Jonathan Taylor earn bell cow duties early in the season? Has D'Andre Swift already beat out Kerryon Johnson? Is Cam Akers destined for RB1 duties in L.A.? Can Mark Ingram hold off JK Dobbins this season? Who will start Week 1 in Tampa--Ronald Jones or Ke'Shawn Vaughn? Is Zack Moss basically Frank Gore 2.0 in Buffalo? Which under-the-radar rookie back does John covet in the later rounds? Is the quarterback position deep again this year? Are there any early-round QBs worth targeting? Who are the later-round quarterbacks that represent good value at current ADP? John and Anthony discuss these questions and more on the latest edition of The Most Accurate Podcast.

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Eric Moody joins Greg to share first impressions of the 2020 NFL schedule for fantasy football. The conversation opens on the importance (or lack thereof) of bye weeks in fantasy analysis, touching on the schedule's pair of six-team off weeks, as well as the curious case of the two squads with Week 13 byes. Then the bulk of the episode is spent discussing strength of schedule, plus winners and losers at all the prominent fantasy positions. Your hosts lay out some of the limitations associated with strength of schedule analysis, what they look for when they assess a team's schedule, and their preferences to lean toward early-season or late-season matchup advantages. After those general topics are out of the way, the team-specific and player-specific takes start to flow. Tune in to find out which fantasy assets you can target and which you might want to avoid based on schedule concerns.LinksStrength of Schedule by Projected Win Totals from TJ HernandezAdjusted Fantasy Points Against (aFPA) at 4for4Fantasy Rankings and Projections from John PaulsenPositional Rankings Breakdowns by John PaulsenEric Moody's Archives at 4for4James Conner's Demise is Greatly Exaggerated by Justin EdwardsSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: Eric Moody - @EricNMoodyHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Danny Kelly joins Greg to weigh in on the 2020 draft now that we've had another week to marinate in the results. Danny makes special note of the nearly unprecedented early run on offensive skill position players and then weighs in on some NFL teams with developing identities, including the Bengals and Broncos. Your hosts then discuss some non-fantasy players who should have a big impact on the fantasy game, including lineman from both sides of the ball. The bulk of this episode from there is spent dissecting the rookie wide receiver class. How should we balance optimism and pessimism for prospects in fantasy? Which teams are the best and worst at evaluating and drafting pass-catchers? Which rookie wideouts are currently undervalued? Your hosts weigh in on these questions and more, then they look to disappointments from past drafts to find corollaries to this season, in the hopes of avoiding potential traps. The show winds down with an accounting of some under-the-radar offenses worth investing in when drafting fantasy, both long-term for dynasty and short-term for redraft. LinksThe Ringer's 2020 NFL Draft GuideDanny Kelly's Archives at The RingerThe Dantasy Football PodcastSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: Danny Kelly - @DannyBKellyHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com

SummaryOn this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, John Daigle joins Greg to recap the 2020 NFL Draft from a fantasy football perspective. The show begins with bigger-picture takeaways like the proliferation of a "best player available" mentality and the diminishing number of high-volume fantasy options (and not just at running back). From there, your hosts dive into positional breakdowns. Running backs come first (12:06), starting with John and Greg's picks for biggest winners among incumbent ball-carriers. Then the top rookie rushers get evaluated, both on their own and in terms of impacts on their new veteran teammates. Later, after reviewing the most interesting rushers from Day 2 and 3, the conversation turns to wide receivers (37:55). Again, winners and losers among veterans kicks off the positional discussion before your hosts dig into the rookie class. They discuss how much Henry Ruggs might be hurt by the quarterback play of Derek Carr, which other first-round rookies are the best bets to produce in year-one, plus the most intriguing pass-catching prospects from outside the first round. Quarterbacks are next (1:04:22), with takes on multiple winners and one obvious loser among veterans at the position. Your hosts also touch on the outlooks for Jameis Winston and Cam Newton in new homes, then they discuss how to rank the incoming rookies, whether or not fantasy gamers should be worried about Carson Wentz, and the curious case of PJ "Don't Call Me Phillip" Walker playing behind Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina. The episode winds down with a brief section on tight ends (1:20:38), tabbing winners and losers among non-rookies, then highlighting a couple of the position's more intriguing inbound prospects.LinksRotoworld.com2020 NFL Draft Fantasy Recap (Round 1) by John Paulsen2020 NFL Draft Fantasy Recap (Rounds 2-3) by John Paulsen2020 NFL Draft Fantasy Recap (Rounds 4-7) by Brandon NilesWhy Jalen Hurts was a Great Pick by Philadelphia by Kevin ColeSubscribe to 4for4TMAP B-Sides Playlist on SpotifyGuest: John Daigle - @notJDaigleHost: Greg Smith - @gregsauceFollow UsTwitter: @4for4footballFacebook: www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4footballEmail: hello@4for4.com