FICC Focus

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Kaushik Rudra, Managing Director & Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Standard Chartered Bank. Rudra shares his outlook for emerging market fixed income, as falling US treasury yields and a weaker dollar fuel the technical rally in risk assets. China remains in focus following recent steps by Beijing to alleviate pressure on the domestic economy, and property market in particular.

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G10 FX strategist, along with chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu, reflect on the recent euro revival and on how a sustainable euro-dollar recovery could unfold in the months and quarters to come.   

“Powell did a masterful job in neutralizing the market rally from [after the Federal Reserve] put out its statement. I think Powell did what he needed to in order to ensure they could slow the pace of rate hikes, while moving the terminal rate higher,” Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast.In this Macro Matter’s edition, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Wong to discuss the aftermath of the November Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Wong notes her view that the market is pricing for her current expectation of rate hikes. Jersey and Wong then discuss how long the Fed may keep the federal funds rate at its peak, how the future economic situation may develop, and what the Fed’s reaction function could be. Wong then produces an impromptu Fun Fed Fact segment explaining how the “dual mandate” developed in the late 1970s.

With distressed supply settling back following a test of June’s highs, Bloomberg Intelligence expects it may consolidate a bit between $100-$150 billion as seasonal trends turn supportive in December, and believes this distressed supply rise will continue, however, more likely in drawn out and steady fashion rather than quick and volatile. FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss the leisurely pace of this distressed cycle and when it may pick up. Bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku has an in-depth feature interview with Melissa B. Jacoby, Professor of Law at UNC School of Law (7:50) and Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins the panel to share thoughts on distressed credits in the cinema and crypto spaces, as well as Bed, Bath, & Beyond, Revlon and Incora (42:40).

Hybrids have significantly underperformed in 2022 and now trade wider than their high yield brethren, a trend that could extend into 2023. Private credit continues to grow assets and influence, yet spreads trail far behind their similar named “parent” companies. Bloomberg Intelligence’s global analysis also suggests changes in discount rates could be a big benefit for pension liabilities. This month’s podcast highlights the credit implications for BT, Telefonica, Boeing, Blackstone, KKR and other business-development companies.In this Credit Chat edition, European TMT analyst Aidan Cheslin, US Financials analyst David Havens and US Industrials analyst Matthew Geudtner join Robert Schiffman to discuss declining hybrid valuations, the growth of the private credit industry and the impact of rising rates on pension underfunding.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Professor Gregory Besharov at the University of Oxford. They discuss the volatility in UK bonds, crypto and the housing market.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Rohit Goel, Director of Macro Research at Breakout Capital. Goel shares his outlook for EM currencies, as persistent dollar strength fuels the call for coordinated FX intervention. China remains the elephant in the room, and Goel shares his views following this month's Communist Party Congress.

“There is significant interest rate risk in TIPS in ETFs and Mutual Funds because they can’t necessarily get enough leverage to do a break-even trade,” Winshore Capital Partners Portfolio Manager Robert Tzucker tells Bloomberg Intelligence.In this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Tzucker to discuss Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and other inflation linked instruments. Tzucker discusses how TIPS work, market liquidity and that he believes that TIPS are the market expectation of inflation, but the market sometimes gets it wrong. In the Fun Fed Fact segment, BI Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews the October Bank of Canada and European Central Bank meetings that were relatively dovish to expectations. Jersey then answers the question of how this week’s central bank decisions might affect near-term Federal Reserve announcements.

"Who would have thought LDI would be in the popular press in my whole career?" says David Eichhorn, CEO of NISA Investment Advisors on this edition of the FICC Focus Podcast.In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Eichhorn joins BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss Liability Driven Investments (LDI), particularly US Defined Benefit pension plan, which he helps manage. Eichhorn discusses how LDI investments differ from other types of plans, how his firm manages risk, and his view for the future of the pension industry. During a discussion about if US pensions could contribute to a market move similar to what occurred in the UK in the recent past, Eichhorn notes that US plans take much less interest risk and manager derivative collateral much differently than their cousins across the pond. The show's Fun Fed Fact segment takes a bit of a turn when BI Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos and Jersey discuss the Treasury Refunding dealer questions about potential Treasury buybacks and TIPS issuance.

Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income at Abrdn Plc, talks about his outlook for state and local debt after a rough 2022.