FICC Focus

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu discusses the key themes from the volatility markets in 2022 and the outlook ahead.

On this month's Masters of the Muniverse Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by three local men who have differing takes on the municipal landscape for 2023 and in some cases hope that their calls for the year ahead are not dashed by unforeseen forces, once again. In no particular order they are joined by Peter Degroot Head of Municipal Research and Strategy at JP Morgan, Vikram Rai Head of Municipal Strategy at Citi and Mikhail Foux Head of Municipal Research at Barclays.

The market will eventually believe that the Federal Reserve's "Put" is further out of the money meaning the central bank may keep the federal funds rate at the peak for longer than the market is pricing, says BI Chief US Rate Strategist Ira Jersey.In this Macro Matter's edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Jersey is joined by Erica Adelberg, BI Mortgage Strategist. Jersey first discusses the December Federal Reserve meeting, his market outlook, and his view that the market will eventually believe in the Fed's resolve to bring inflation down via keeping interest rates higher for longer.Adelberg then discusses the micro foundations of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market, from underwriting to settlement. She describes the To Be Announced (TBA) market, how it fits into the financial landscape, and gives thoughts to the affect of "specified pools" of mortgages being included in the Bloomberg Structured Products Index.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Christian Lawrence, Head of Cross-Asset Strategy at Rabobank. Lawrence reflects on valuations amid the ongoing position squeeze, and shares his year-ahead outlook for emerging market rates and FX. Latin America stands out as the region is rife with risk premia that is tightly correlated to thematic macroeconomic variables.

“End of the day, there was a 45-cent recovery to unsecured creditors of Lehman. Do you think that’s going to happen here [with FTX]?...It’s apples and oranges. Because Lehman had a real asset base,” Mark J. Shapiro, Shearman & Sterling Partner and Chairman of the Financial Restructuring & Insolvency group, says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast.FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss distressed debt’s poor performance year-to-date. BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku has an in-depth feature interview with Shapiro on FTX’s sharp fall, having witnessed Lehman’s collapse as its Head of Restructuring in 2008 (8:18). Hebert, Brendel and Balluku review their latest observations of crypto, Endo International, 3M, Diamond Sports Group, Talen Energy and Cineworld (27:49).Bloomberg Intelligence will host a webinar on Cineworld’s Bankruptcy & Wider Industry Implications on Dec. 16 at 10:30 am ET. Click here to register: https://bloomberg.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_1pvGba9SRRqKQewVpB0v1w

Treasury yields may fall further by the end of 2023, leading to positive returns for the Bloomberg Aggregate Index overall, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief Credit Strategist Noel Hebert and BI Chief Mortgage Strategist Erica Adelberg to discuss their outlook for the Bloomberg Aggregate Index. Jersey notes that his view that Treasury yields could decline further by the end of next year is based on a slowing of economic activity, but with the Federal Reserve loath to ease interest rates too soon thereby causing more yield-curve inversion in 1H, followed by bull steepening (less inversion) in 2H.Adelberg sees the possibility for positive excess returns in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). She notes a lack of supply and wider spreads could bring in buyers of MBS, and that the risk of a convexity-related mortgage-refinancing wage is unlikely. Hebert says that corporate issuance may slow in 2023 and that a slower economic environment could mean modestly negative excess returns for investment-grade corporate debt.To contact the editor responsible for this story

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G10 FX strategist, along with chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu, reflect on next year's Global FX Outlook and assert that evolving FX drivers mean that conditions for a weaker US dollar are in place as we contemplate 2023. There are risks to the view and it's not a linear outlook, but looming inflation and rate peaks, a shift of focus from inflation to growth and a return in risk appetite mean that the case for holding dollars is weakening considerably.

On this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Amanda Albright are joined by the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Boards; President and CEO, Mark Kim. This edition comes at a time when municipal fixed income is feeling pressure from evolutionary forces. In fact, one of the best analogies we can give, is that munis are the John Dutton of fixed income Yellow Stone ranch, and the asset class is hell bent on resisting any sort of change or threats. However, if we take a step back and look across the landscape of investing, we could all agree that more change and transparency is never a bad thing.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, BE's Senior UK Economist. They discuss the volatility in UK bonds and the outlook for the economy.

“We are certainly not talking about six or seven percent [federal funds target rate, but]... modestly above 5%,” Goldman Sachs Chief Interest Rate Strategist Praveen Korapaty says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast.In this Macro Matter’s edition, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Korapaty to discuss his team’s outlook for the Federal Reserve policy action and Treasury yields for 2023. Korapaty discusses his view that 10-year yields may climb above the recent highs and his view that interest rate cuts won’t come early. Jersey and Korapaty also discuss the transition from Libor to the secured overnight financing rate.