FICC Focus

JP Morgan’s Head of Municipal Research and Strategy Peter Degroot, Wells Fargo’s Head of Municipal Markets Strategy Vikram Rai and Barclays’ Head of Municipal Research Mikhail Foux join Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano on this month’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast. The three strategists reflect on the municipal landscape for 2023 and in some cases hope that their calls for the year ahead are not dashed by unforeseen forces, once again.

“The last mile on inflation will be difficult, but the Fed is more optimistic that they can thread the needle,” says Stuart Paul, US and Canadian Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Paul joins FICC Focus host and Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey, and Associate US Rates Strategist Will Hoffman to review the results from the December FOMC Meeting. Paul and the US Economics team anticipated the dovish tone from Chairman Powell, yet highlight several areas of surprise, such as the Fed’s confidence in a soft landing despite a slowing macroeconomic backdrop. Jersey, Paul and Hoffman dissect the outcome of the meeting and discuss the implications for domestic rates markets and the economy across the short and long term.

Noel Hebert, head of Bloomberg Intelligence’s global credit strategy, and Philip Brendel, BI distressed-credit analyst, review the credit markets’ November “melt-up.” Then, they have a wide-ranging discussion with Andy Taylor, head of research at Carronade Capital, on the opportunistic investing process, the power industry’s AI tailwind and financial technologies to “kick the can” (3:45). Finally, Negisa Balluku, BI bankruptcy-litigation analyst, joins Noel and Phil to share her take on Purdue Pharma’s oral argument before the Supreme Court. They also cover the latest developments in WeWork, Yellow Corp., Audacy, Rite Aid (1:15:15).

The podcast discusses the crucial debate between inflation and recession for the 2024 outlook, the role of private credit, and the impact of central bank actions. It explores the advantages of private credit transactions, the potential credit outlook for 2024, and predictions for the CLO market. The disparities between companies in crossover and main categories are explored, along with analysis of rating profiles and portfolio positioning.

The latest FX Moment podcast focuses on how evolving macroeconomic narratives could shape the US dollar outlook into 2024, with persistent uncertainties warranting pragmatism even if you still believe, as we do, in an underwhelming US economy in a disinflationary context, with associated dollar weakness. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, BI's chief Asia FX and rate strategist, also discuss China's macroeconomic predicament, acknowledging the not-so-bearish effect on currencies amid pessimism in China expectations in 2024 vs. 2023.Stephen and Audrey also reflect on the key investment themes and drivers for Asia currencies in 2024 and identify the best-poised and most-exposed Asia currencies as we contemplate 2024.This episode was produced and edited by Victoria Garcia Loustau.

Emerging-market creditors are riding high after another strong November, with returns ranging from 5-6%. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Cathy Hepworth, managing director and head of EM debt at PGIM Fixed Income, joins host Damian Sassower, BI’s chief EM fixed-income strategist, to deliver her year-ahead outlook on EM interest rates, credit and currencies. With policy-easing under way across a growing number of developing economies, she discusses the opportunities and challenges facing EM central banks as they attempt to navigate the expected slowdown in global growth.

Rising volatility, maturity walls and the withdrawal of traditional lenders are driving issuers and investors to capital solutions experts in the private credit world. Alice Cavalier and David Brooks, co-heads of the Capital Solutions Strategy group at Arcmont Capital Management, join Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast. A deep dive into refinancing solutions, private lending and secondary debt, all part of Arcmont’s three-pronged investment approach, as well as regional complexities and the competitive landscape within private-credit are discussed.

There’s been heightened volatility in rates and tax-loss harvesting may or may not be the best course of action. On this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, part of the FICC Focus podcast series, Andy Kalotay, a leading authority on quantitative analysis of municipal bonds, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano for an in-depth discussion about the muni market this year, tax-loss harvesting and what’s on the horizon for 2024. 

Rate markets are mispricing early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Huw Worthington and Ira Jersey say on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. They discuss their general views for government debt issuance, which part of the investor base may buy the new debt and central bank policy outlooks. Worthington also goes into detail about recent plans for fiscal stimulus going into the UK elections, which need to occur sometime in 2024.

Economic and monetary policy uncertainty have been among the few constants confronting credit markets throughout 2023, generating divergent views around return prospects even as high yield markets look set to exit the year largely unscathed. “I haven’t seen more dislocations than I see today,” John McClain, Portfolio Manager High Yield & Corp Credit Strategies at Brandywine Global talks about the array of options in today’s credit market. McClain joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this Credit Crunch episode of the FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discussion about what’s ahead for high yield, targeting esoteric risk and some of the structural changes impacting the asset class.