The Economy, the Fed, and the Mortgage Market: Macro Matters
Apr 25, 2024
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BI's Erica Adelberg and Will Hoffman discuss MBS market trends, housing market performance, and the implications of continued MBS runoff from the Fed's balance sheet. They delve into structural demand implications, rising housing prices, refinancing trends, and the evaluation of higher mortgage coupons.
Divergence in mortgage demand between new and existing homes due to affordability and market dynamics.
Deep dives
Overview of Upcoming Data Release and Market Reactions
An important Treasury Department refunding announcement is anticipated, followed by the Federal Reserve Statement and Chair Powell's Post-Meeting Press Conference. With recent GDP reports indicating a mix of robust spending in certain categories and lower government spending, there is concern about the Federal Reserve's balance sheet due to treasury cash holdings. Market interest rates have risen, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaching 4.7%, signaling potential further increases and market pricing suggesting a hold on rates into 2025.
Analysis of the Housing and Mortgage Market Trends
The podcast delves into the housing and mortgage markets, noting a dual trend with a surge in new home construction to meet under supply demand while existing home applications remain low. Builders adapt by constructing smaller and more cost-efficient homes, driving loan applications for new homes upwards. Noteworthy divergence exists between mortgage applications for existing and new homes, with affordability and size variations playing crucial roles.
Insights on Mortgage Credit Availability and Market Dynamics
The discussion shifts to mortgage credit structures, highlighting a shift towards government loans favored by first-time homebuyers due to competition from cash buyers and high mortgage rates. The implications of the Fed's mortgage portfolio runoff on market dynamics are explored, touching on potential headwinds for mortgage spreads. The availability of housing credit, especially for first-time buyers, points towards a complex interplay between market structures and borrower preferences.
Inflation is holding stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s target, throwing expectations for rate cuts into turmoil and playing havoc with housing and mortgage markets. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Erica Adelberg, BI’s chief MBS strategist, and Will Hoffman, associate US rates strategist, to discuss the current and future state of the MBS market ahead of the May FOMC meeting. Adelberg breaks down recent trends across the US housing market, as well as year-to-date performance drivers for the MBS sector. She also examines the structural demand implications of continued MBS runoff from the Fed’s balance sheet.
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