FICC Focus

Municipals are starting the year semi-flat, and the latest read on consumer prices won’t do much to alleviate the concern of market participants that performance could be stagnant for the foreseeable future. At the same time, there are still some areas of relative value, even though the absolute tradeoff from late 2023 has faded to a large degree. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Jason Appleson, managing director and head of PGIM Fixed Income’s municipal-bond team. They discuss market dynamics, credit quality, election predictions and much more.

Exploring the tight credit spreads and low defaults in the credit market. Analysis includes fund flows, rate cuts, yield-curve views, and private credit markets. Insights on high yield, loans, defaults, and the interaction between private and public markets.

The distressed cycle is on the upswing as rates pinch post-pandemic borrowers, in the eyes of William ‘Tuck’ Hardie, Managing Director in Houlihan Lokey’s Financial Restructuring Group (3:30). He joined the State of Distressed Debt podcast team to talk liability management transactions, where we are in the cycle, and why the involvement of private credit and CLO investors may mean more persistent distress. Tuck also shares stories from his 20-plus years with Houlihan and speaks to the culture that has enabled the team’s success. Prior to that, Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel of Bloomberg Intelligence review renewed declines in distressed debt and the general state of the market. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku and Phil reviewing ongoing bankruptcy and distressed situations including Gol, WeWork, Yellow, Audacy and Spirit Airlines (1:11:50).

The Federal Reserve is restrictive, and policymakers left themselves room to cut on the way up, says Greg Faranello, head of US rates at AmeriVet Securities. In this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast, Faranello joins hosts Ira Jersey, BI chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, US rates strategy associate, to discuss the state of the Treasury market. The trio examine the recent repricing of Fed policy expectations, outlook for quantitative tightening and the impact of persistent federal deficits on the secondary Treasury market.

In the latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G10 FX strategist, talks about the Swiss economy, the SNB's outlook and prospects for the franc with Valerie Lemaigre, head of Investment Office and chief economist at Banque Cantonale de Geneve. In particular, Valerie and Audrey explore how the outlook for Swiss growth and inflation may sway SNB near-term monetary policy direction and why the franc's recent underperformance (to the extent that it feeds positively through the inflation channel) takes pressure off the SNB to begin imminent easing.This suggests that a not-so-dovish March 21 SNB meeting may give the franc temporary breathing space, with a likely euro-Swiss near-term consolidation near 0.95-0.97, while dollar-Swiss remains at the mercy of the greenback's narrative.

Exploring the weakening demand for MBS from banks and international buyers due to delayed expectations of the US Federal Reserve's rate cut. Discussing shifts in MBS market dynamics, impact of Fed policy changes on securities demand, underperformance drivers, and implications of regulatory changes on hedging behavior.

For a market notoriously known for resisting change, the municipal bond market is arguably one of the most in need of advanced technologies. Artificial intelligence may finally bring better fair value pricing to munis’ nuanced and illiquid market. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by ficc.ai’s co-founder, Charles Elkan, to discuss how machine learning and muni ETFs can bring real-time pricing to muniland.

Emerging market carry should continue to outperform, as the fall in foreign exchange volatility reflects capitulation by dollar bulls. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through edition of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Phoenix Kalen, Head of EM Research at Société Générale, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence chief EM fixed income strategist, to share her view on valuations and investor positioning across EM local rates, currencies and credit. Macroeconomic risks appear back-loaded to 2H, when US presidential elections may fuel a rise in EM volatility.

Systematic credit investors seek to capitalize on mispricings that can be overlooked or hard to identify in more traditional investment strategies. Scott Richardson, director of Systematic Credit at Acadian Asset Management, has been at the forefront of the approach and joins Bloomberg Intelligence podcast hosts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to talk through they keys to success: Identifying relative value, modeling default forecasts, portfolio construction, comparing value in primary vs. secondary markets, examining liquidity premiums and the importance of transparency. Credit Crunch is a part of the FICC Focus podcast series

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Catherine Clay, Global Head of Derivatives at Cboe. They discuss zero-days-to-expiry options (0DTEs), cross-asset volatility and potential for options on Bitcoin ETFs.