Bonds Are Not Vegetables Says HSBC’s Steven Major: Macro Matters
Jul 27, 2024
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Steven Major, HSBC’s global head of fixed-income research, joins Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to delve into the complexities of bond markets. They discuss the determinants of long-term interest rates and how supply influences yields. Regulatory constraints on dealer-intermediation are examined, alongside a contrarian outlook for global bonds. The conversation emphasizes the need for intellectual honesty in economic research while exploring the shifting dynamics between goods and services consumption.
Stable consumer spending, driven by resilient services consumption, underscores the importance of monitoring economic indicators for future monetary policy decisions.
The discussion highlights how structural factors, like population growth and migration, play a vital role in determining long-term equilibrium interest rates.
Deep dives
Current Economic Indicators and Consumption Trends
Recent economic indicators suggest a stable consumer spending environment, particularly highlighted by a recent personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report that met expectations with a marginal 0.1% increase. This reflects a strong services consumption while durable goods show slight turnover, indicating shifting spending patterns among consumers. The report highlights that despite a challenging global economic backdrop, American consumers continue to drive economic growth, with spending remaining healthy. This trend is crucial for understanding the broader implications for monetary policy and recession concerns.
Global Economic Landscape and China's Influence
The global economic outlook remains subdued, particularly with underperforming data from key economies like China and Europe. China has shifted its growth targets to be significantly lower than in the previous decade, contributing to a disinflationary trend that impacts global markets. As emerging economies take over manufacturing roles, the anticipated growth in the U.S. may be hindered by these global developments, indicating a cautious approach to future fiscal and monetary policies. The sluggishness in Europe, exacerbated by internal political challenges, further compounds these concerns.
Interest Rates and Long-Term Economic Equilibrium
The discussion on interest rates emphasizes the relevance of equilibrium rates in the current economic environment, assessing how they relate to fiscal policies and long-term growth potential. Despite the belief among some analysts that global dynamics have fundamentally changed post-pandemic, evidence points towards the idea that certain fundamentals remain stable. Population growth and migration patterns are pivotal in understanding these equilibrium dynamics, as they underpin labor market conditions and inflation metrics. The analysis suggests that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook for interest rates may be lower and influenced more by structural factors than transient market sentiments.
Steven Major, HSBC’s global head of fixed-income research, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and BI senior rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss some of the most controversial topics across global bond markets in this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast. The trio dive into the determinants of longer-run equilibrium interest rates and the relationship between supply and yields. They also touch on regulatory constraints on dealer-intermediation capabilities and relative value across global bond markets.
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