Competent Man Podcast

Richard Duncan, a macro economist and author of MacroWatch, dives into Trump's radical economic strategies aimed at reshaping the U.S. landscape. He reveals how Trump's three-step blueprint—high tariffs, military leverage, and a coordinated dollar devaluation—could reverse de-industrialization. Duncan emphasizes the potential consequences, including inflation and economic instability, and discusses the necessity for Trump to control the Federal Reserve to implement these changes. He also touches on the strategic race against China in technology and the risks of aggressive monetary policy.

Luke Gromen, founder and president of FFTT, discusses the fierce US-China competition for critical minerals and its economic implications. He argues that the US's heavy reliance on China for manufacturing poses significant risks and emphasizes the need for a shift in industrial policy. Gromen believes China is well-positioned to dominate high-end tech, especially semiconductors. He also explores the potential of gold to stabilize the economy, suggesting that rising gold prices could alleviate US debt burdens and re-balance global financial systems.

In a revealing conversation, Kevin Muir, a market commentator and publisher of The Macro Tourist, shares his alarm over the current market's overvaluation. He draws parallels to the dot-com bubble and cautions against the exuberance fueled by fiscal policies and AI hype. Muir discusses how rising gold prices could signal economic instability and impact stocks. He also critiques the overconfidence in AI valuations and suggests looking towards non-US markets for better opportunities amidst the prevailing risks.

Rick Rule, founder and CEO of Rule Investment Media, discusses the current state and future of the metals and commodity markets with host Tom Bodrovics. Rule highlights the psychological and strategic considerations for investors in these markets, noting that while the market has significant potential, it may also experience volatility and corrections. He shares his personal strategy of selling 25% of his junior mining investments to secure profits and reduce downside risk, while reinvesting in physical gold and other high-quality assets. Rule emphasizes the importance of understanding one’s psychological tolerance for risk and market volatility, drawing from his extensive experience in the industry. Rick also discusses the current dynamics in the silver market, attributing recent dislocations to logistical issues rather than a systemic crisis. He expresses his belief in the long-term potential of precious metals, driven by factors such as inflation and geopolitical instability. Mr. Rule also touches on the challenges facing the mining industry, including rising capital costs, permitting issues, and increasing social rents. Additionally, Rule critiques the involvement of governments in natural resource investments, arguing that governments are typically poor investors and that regulatory reforms and tax code changes could stimulate investment in the U.S. Rick also shares his optimism about the oil and gas sector, viewing it as a hated but potentially lucrative investment opportunity. Throughout the discussion, Rule stresses the importance of fundamental analysis and a long-term perspective in investing, while also acknowledging the potential for short-term market manipulations. He concludes by promoting his new venture, Battle Bank, which aims to provide financial services to natural resource investors, and his website, Rule Investment Media, where he offers personalized rankings of natural resource stocks. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:34 – Market Psychology Strategy00:03:48 – Historical Bull Lessons00:05:49 – Portfolio Rebalancing Rules00:13:00 – Market Crash Impacts00:16:08 – Silver Lease Dislocations00:26:00 – Silver Price Outlook00:27:43 – Gold-Silver Ratio Debate00:33:02 – Mining Cost Challenges00:35:40 – Government Mining Stakes00:43:20 – US Policy Reforms00:48:06 – Gold/Oil Market Signals00:55:55 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:X: https://x.com/@realrickruleWebsite: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMediaClassroom: https://ruleclassroom.com Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors. Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.

Your host Tom Bodrovics and guest Eric Yeung, an investor and former contract manufacturer in China, delve into the complexities of the current silver market. Yeung highlights the deliberate complexity of the system, designed to obscure understanding, and shares his insights gained from extensive research. The discussion begins with the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and its reported shortage of physical silver, with Yeung citing sources indicating a drastic reduction in the LBMA’s free float of physical silver from 5,000 to 0 metric tons in just two weeks. This scarcity has led to unprecedented events, such as the SLV ETF temporarily halting share redemptions for physical silver and the spike in lease rates, which Yeung interprets as banks refusing to lend or lease silver bars. Yeung suggests that the system’s freeze is due to one of the major banks ceasing to lend physical silver, causing a domino effect. He posits that the current price action and the dwindling free float are key factors in this market stress. The conversation also touches on the role of the US dollar in this equation, with Yeung noting that fluctuations in the dollar’s value can affect the market due to its role as the funding cost for exchanges and bilateral contracts. The exchange for physical (EFP) mechanism and ETFs are discussed as integral parts of the system, with Yeung explaining how ETFs serve as physical metal reserves for bullion banks. The potential outcomes of the current situation are explored, with Yeung presenting a best-case scenario of an orderly unwinding of bullion banks’ short positions and a gradual price increase for silver. The worst-case scenario, however, involves a technical default by the LBMA, leading to a loss of confidence and a potential shift in the global pricing mechanism for precious metals to exchanges like the COMEX and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The episode also touches on the potential for central banks, including those in the BRICS countries, to add silver to their reserves, using it as collateral for international trade, similar to gold. Yeung believes this shift is part of a broader move away from the US dollar-dominated system, with China and other global south countries developing a new monetary order based on gold and silver collateral. The episode concludes with Yeung advising listeners to own physical gold and silver as a hedge against fiat currency risks and suggesting that miners could be a viable alternative if physical metals become scarce. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:02:13 – LBMA Free Float Decline00:04:21 – SLV Shares Borrowing Issues00:06:55 – Exploding Lease Rates00:07:10 – LBMA System Freeze00:10:10 – Backwardation and Arbitrage00:12:50 – Risks to LBMA00:13:20 – LBMA Containment Measures00:16:40 – Global Demand Vectors00:21:10 – Dollar Liquidity Impact00:24:10 – EFP and ETF Roles00:26:50 – Best Worst Case Scenarios00:29:20 – Central Banks Adding Silver00:34:40 – New Monetary Order00:47:00 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:X: https://x.com/KingKong9888

Tom Bodrovics interviews Mart Wolbert, founder of the Contrarian Codex Newsletter, to discuss the current state and future prospects of the uranium market. Wolbert highlights the significant increase in the term price of uranium, which has risen to $82-$83, driven by cost inflation and project delays. He notes that despite this increase, the market remains tight, with a substantial supply-demand deficit projected through 2040. Utilities, particularly in the US and Europe, are facing challenges in securing adequate fuel supplies, leading to a shift towards longer-term contracting and higher prices. Wolbert emphasizes that the uranium market is complex and requires multiple factors to align for a balanced supply. He discusses the potential for new supply sources, such as uranium extraction from phosphate tails and re-enrichment of tails, but notes that these depend on higher prices and technological advancements. He also highlights the geopolitical considerations surrounding KazAtomProm, a major Russian uranium producer, and its influence on global uranium supply. The conversation also touches on the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in driving future demand for uranium, as data centers require significant power. Wolbert believes that while AI will increase demand, it is not the primary driver of the current uranium bull market. Mart also discusses the importance of diversifying investments to mitigate risks, including holding positions in gold, silver, oil, gas, and other commodities. Wolbert shares his sentiment rating for the uranium market, which is currently very optimistic but not yet euphoric. He advises listeners to be cautious and prepare for potential market corrections, using the analogy of a desert trek to emphasize the importance of planning for challenging times. He concludes by encouraging listeners to stay informed and consider the long-term prospects of the uranium market. Guest Links:X: https://x.com/Yellowbull11Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/contrariancodexEmail: mailto:contrariancodex@gmail.com Mart Wolbert is a dedicated investor who specializes in identifying contrarian investment opportunities with the potential for life-changing returns. After thousands of hours researching the macro environment, uranium markets, and various commodities, he has developed a distinctive approach to finding value in overlooked and often unloved sectors of the market. As the founder of Contrarian Codex, Wolbert has built a thriving community of like-minded investors who share his passion for thorough research and bold positioning. His commitment to delivering value extends through multiple channels, including a biweekly uranium newsletter, comprehensive investment theses, and detailed company coverage. When opportunities arise beyond his uranium specialty, Wolbert doesn’t hesitate to explore other sectors, providing sample portfolios and actionable insights to his followers. What sets Wolbert apart is his dedication to making complex investment analysis accessible and understandable. Through exclusive interviews with industry experts, timely buy and sell alerts, and breaking news coverage, he ensures his community stays ahead of market movements. His approach isn’t just about financial returns—it’s about helping others achieve the freedom to pursue what they truly enjoy in life. With a growing presence across Twitter, Reddit, and his Patreon platform, Mart Wolbert continues to challenge conventional investment wisdom while building a community of investors who value thorough research over popular opinion.

Jaime Carrasco, Senior Portfolio Manager and Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management, discusses the current state and future of precious metals with Tom. Jaime emphasizes the importance of focusing on allocation rather than the price of gold and silver, highlighting that only 2% of Western wealth is currently allocated to the sector. Tom notes the historical context, recalling that during their first conversation in March 2020, gold was around $1,575 and silver was around $15.50, contrasting with the current prices of approximately $4,000 for gold and $50 for silver. Carrasco outlines his strategy, which involves maintaining a minimum 30% allocation to the precious metals sector and rebalancing portfolios to manage volatility. He discusses the significance of central banks accumulating gold, with some now holding more gold than US treasuries, signaling a shift in the global monetary system. He also touches on the potential for gold to reach much higher prices, citing historical precedents and the current monetary environment. The discussion also covers the role of silver, which Carrasco believes is poised for significant gains due to its industrial demand and monetary properties. Tom mentions the gold-silver ratio and its historical significance, suggesting that silver could outperform gold in the current bull market. Carrasco highlights the importance of having a long-term strategy and not getting caught up in short-term price movements. Jaime advises investors to focus on building and maintaining their allocations in precious metals, as this sector is likely to outpace others during monetary crises. He also mentions the potential for a monetary reset, drawing parallels with historical events and the role of precious metals in rebuilding the monetary system. Throughout the conversation, Carrasco stresses the need for investors to educate themselves and take action, as the current environment presents a unique opportunity to protect and grow wealth through precious metals. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:01:00 – Historical Price Discussion00:07:00 – Huge $500 Gold Move00:07:45 – Special Opportunities Portfolio00:15:50 – Exploration Investments00:19:44 – Sector Allocation Emphasis00:21:12 – Generational Manager Shift00:22:50 – Central Bank Gold Buying00:25:00 – Gold Price Projections00:31:52 – Silver Market Catch-Up00:36:13 – Monetary System Transition00:45:11 – Canada/Chile Mining Sector01:00:40 – Long-Term Holding Strategy01:06:03 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:X: https://x.com/ijcarrascoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: https://www.harbourfrontwealth.comE-Mail: mailto:jaime@jcwealth.ca Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch. Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies. Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies. “Like one’s financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails.”

In this episode of The Competent Investor, host Tom Bodrovics engages with market analyst Bob Coleman and contributor Jim Hunter to dissect the evolving precious metals landscape, focusing on gold and silver amid a global bull market. The discussion highlights structural shifts since the 2008-2011 cycle, including reduced futures open interest, which has tempered leverage and whipsaws, though silver remains volatile due to its small market size and susceptibility to stops. Key insights include the interplay of backwardation and contango, where spot prices exceeding futures—driven by physical demand from fabricators and investors—creates arbitrage opportunities, potentially reversing metal flows from New York to London to alleviate tightness and elevated leasing rates. Bob unpacks Basel III’s role in de-leveraging unallocated accounts, boosting physical demand from Asia (e.g., India and China) while Western retail selling earlier this year gave way to post-Labor Day buying from high-net-worth individuals, tightening specific products like sovereign coins and rounds. ETF inflows, such as SLV’s recent 5 million share creation, underscore paper market influences, but borrowing fees spiking to 9.8% signal dislocations, with authorized participants struggling to provide liquidity despite physical backing. Manipulation is framed nuancedly: short-term spoofing by banks affects daily pricing but hasn’t derailed long-term gains (gold up over 10x this decade), while industry greed—high buy/sell spreads and sensational marketing—has eroded retail trust more profoundly, pushing flows to ETFs. Broader risks include counterparty exposure in ETFs, sub-custodian vulnerabilities under London law, and energy-intensive mining costs rising amid industrial demand for silver in solar and batteries. The panel views metals as a confidence barometer against fiat debasement and systemic debt, with central banks stockpiling gold as a hedge. Long-term bullishness prevails, though mining stocks appear overbought, and volatility looms from potential economic warfare or bubbles. Emphasis falls on physical ownership for true risk mitigation in an analog world increasingly strained by digital narratives and energy constraints. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:02:55 – Silver Market Changes00:07:20 – Market Structure Differences00:07:21 – Backwardation Versus Contango00:10:10 – Metal Flow to London00:13:07 – Basel III Impact00:22:14 – Physical Supply Tightness00:29:27 – Paper Versus Physical Markets00:46:54 – ETF Borrowing Mechanics00:48:00 – Market Manipulation Discussion01:19:26 – Futures Market Update01:39:29 – Audience Questions Session02:55:02 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Bob Coleman Guest Links:X: https://x.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/ Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security. Jim Hunter – Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleX: https://x.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com

Tom Bodrovics welcomes London Paul from the Sirius report for a discussion around the evolving global geopolitical landscape, with a particular focus on the role of gold and the shifting dynamics between the East and West. Paul emphasizes that China’s strategic vision for gold is deeply rooted in its historical love for the metal, which began with significant gold imports from the West around 2012. This love for gold was catalyzed by discussions with architects of a multipolar world, who predicted the eventual failure of the U.S. financialization model, a prediction that materialized with the 2008 financial crisis. China’s gold strategy involves not only accumulating physical gold but also developing gold hubs globally to facilitate trade in gold, thereby internationalizing the yuan.   Paul argues that the U.S. is facing significant economic and financial challenges, including a massive debt burden and a declining global influence. In contrast, China’s economy is seen as more robust, with a real economy that produces and trades goods, rather than relying on financialization. Paul also discusses the implications of digital currencies and digital IDs, cautioning against fear-mongering and misinformation. He argues that while surveillance and control mechanisms exist, the introduction of new technologies like digital currencies does not fundamentally change the existing power dynamics. Instead, he advises focusing on solutions and understanding the realities of the financial system. The discussion concludes with a reflection on the current geopolitical tensions, particularly the Ukraine conflict, and the broader implications for global stability. Paul emphasizes the importance of rational thinking and understanding the complexities of international relations, rather than succumbing to fear and misinformation. Paul highlights that China’s approach to gold is part of a broader strategy to move away from the U.S. dollar, which China views as a weaponized tool. This strategy includes making the yuan fully convertible into gold for trade partners, effectively creating a gold-backed currency. Paul also notes that China’s gold reserves are significantly higher than publicly acknowledged, with estimates suggesting around 40,000 tons, a figure that includes both government and privately held gold. The conversation also touches on the de-dollarization trend, where countries are moving away from the U.S. dollar in international trade, a process accelerated by U.S. sanctions and the weaponization of the dollar. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:01:28 – China’s Gold History00:03:25 – Multipolar World Vision00:05:23 – Post-2014 Geopolitical Shifts00:07:38 – Yuan Gold-Backed Trade00:20:45 – De-Dollarization Evidence00:22:14 – Silver Monetary Industrial Value00:28:40 – LBMA Future Irrelevance00:35:05 – Western Misconceptions00:47:10 – US China Bond Markets01:08:10 – US Military Power Decline01:20:30 – Nuclear Escalation Risk?01:28:00 – Ukraine War Analysis01:44:30 – Digital ID Realities02:07:20 – Concluding Thoughts Guest LinksX: https://x.com/thesiriusreportWebsite: https://www.thesiriusreport.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thesiriusreport The Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that we believe are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual. The site is run by ‘London Paul’ and his partner Lisa, who is the site administrator. ‘London Paul’ is a pseudonym that was first coined by long-time friend and fellow commentator Jim Willie. For privacy reasons, Paul prefers not to be known by his real name. He also feels that the primary focus should be on his work rather than on his identity. Paul has a long track record of accurate predictions and analyses on geopolitical and economic affairs. Originally a physicist, he was awarded a Ph.D. in biomolecular physics, after which he spent some time working in academia. He then went on to work in the financial services sector and worked in some major banks until the financial crisis of 2008, when he left the banking sector to work in the precious metals sector. In addition to his vast understanding of economics and precious metals (a friend of his once jokingly said that ‘Paul is the only person I know who really understands derivatives’), he has also always had a keen interest in geopolitics. Through years of diligent research and conversations with certain key insiders, he has been able to gain a unique understanding of a geopolitical shift towards a multipolar paradigm that is now shaping the world in the 21st century. Paul is not motivated by party politics and does not adhere to any particular political, religious or other movement. He likes a common-sense approach to everything and sees it as his responsibility to deliver completely objective, unbiased, and no-nonsense analysis, even if that means going against popular opinion.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes the other Tom, Tom Luongo, producer of the Gold Goats and Guns newsletter, to discuss various economic and political topics. Luongo shares his journey from being summarily let go at Newsmax to launching his successful newsletter. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining objectivity and adaptability in the face of unexpected challenges. A significant portion of the discussion revolves around Luongo’s collaboration with Dexter, highlighting their differing approaches to analyzing events. Luongo tends to see linear narratives and cause-and-effect relationships, while Dexter views events more stochastically. Despite their differences, they respect each other’s perspectives and have found a productive middle ground in their analysis. The conversation delves into the assassination of Charlie Kirk, with Luongo suggesting it was a message from a higher power, likely aimed at warning Donald Trump. He believes the goal of such chaos is to destabilize society and create an environment where Marxism or nihilistic libertarianism can take hold, both of which he views as anti-civilizational. Luongo also discusses the importance of rebuilding the middle class, particularly through housing and economic policies. He criticizes the current system for making it difficult for young people to enter the housing market and start families. He advocates for the IPO of Fannie and Freddie, arguing that it would help stabilize the housing market and provide more opportunities for younger generations. The interview touches on the role of the Federal Reserve and the potential revaluation of gold, which Luongo believes could significantly impact the economy. He criticizes those who use fear and doom-mongering to gain followers, emphasizing the need for honest and collegial discussions. Luongo concludes by stressing the importance of strengthening local communities and rebuilding civilization from the ground up. He believes that by making small, efficient improvements in our daily lives, we can create a better world for future generations. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:26 – The Toms Career Transitions00:03:08 – Relationship with Dexter00:07:47 – Charlie Kirk Assassination Analysis00:14:53 – Critiquing Libertarians and Marxists00:26:20 – Trump’s Meeting with King00:35:52 – Fannie Freddie Housing Reform00:50:58 – Interest Rates and Powell00:59:35 – Inflation Targets and Deflation01:11:40 – Commentary Quality Critique01:18:46 – Gold Revaluation Mechanics01:28:00 – Trump Presidency Evaluation01:38:08 – Stablecoins and U.S. Debt01:46:32 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Website: https://tomluongo.meX: https://x.com/tfl1278Patreon: https://patreon.com/goldgoatsnguns Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media. Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner. He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, “I’ve since grown up a lot.” Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company’s business model. Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses. As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs. To sum up:“Individuals are the only people with enough knowledge about their own lives to have a hope of making the right decisions for themselves, and no amount of guidance or central planning can help that process along.” He built the house he lives in and raises goats and milks them. In short, he says, “I’m a libertarian who distrusts all human organizations larger than a two-handed game of poker.” Lastly, He states, “I own a few guns.”