Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research for GoldMoney and finance author, dives deep into gold reserves and geopolitical monetary shifts. He discusses how liquidity strains from quantitative tightening and T-bill financing are pressuring the financial system. Alasdair predicts the Fed will ease policies, potentially igniting inflation reminiscent of Weimar Germany. He also estimates China's gold holdings and discusses Russia's growing gold position, emphasizing how these dynamics could reshape global currency reliance. Gold's role as a hedge against dollar debasement is also highlighted.
01:00:32
forum Ask episode
web_stories AI Snips
view_agenda Chapters
auto_awesome Transcript
info_circle Episode notes
insights INSIGHT
Liquidity Crunch Driven By QT And T‑Bill Demand
Quantitative tightening plus heavy T-bill issuance created a developing liquidity crunch in U.S. markets.
The Fed responded by ending QT and restarting QE, signaling inflation concerns are deprioritized.
insights INSIGHT
Rescue Via Currency Debasement
Credit bubbles always burst and the Fed will rescue key players by debasing the currency.
Debasement will erode dollar purchasing power and likely trigger soaring inflation and higher bond yields.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Don’t Rely On Bail‑Ins To Resolve Bank Failures
Dismiss bail‑ins as a likely systemic policy in major economies; they would spark bank runs.
Expect regional bank failures to be absorbed by larger banks with depositors protected and balance sheets consolidated.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Tom welcomes Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research for GoldMoney and author of the Macleod Finance Substack to discuss the current state of the financial system and the potential implications of recent liquidity strains. He notes that the Federal Reserve’s Repo facility has been used to manage liquidity issues, which he attributes to quantitative tightening and the US Treasury’s significant reliance on T-bills for financing.
Macleod predicts that the Fed will continue to ease monetary policy, potentially leading to more quantitative easing, which could debase the currency and drive up inflation. Macleod compared the current situation to the Weimar Republic’s hyperinflation, noting similarities in political pressures and public responses to currency devaluation. He warned that the US, like Weimar Germany, could face a credit bubble burst, leading to a significant decline in the dollar’s purchasing power and a potential run on banks. However, he does not expect bail-ins to occur, as they would likely cause a bank run. Instead, he anticipates that regional banks may fail, but deposit holders will be protected, leading to further consolidation in the banking sector.
Alasdair also discusses the role of gold in the current financial system, noting that the LBMA’s annual meeting forecasts a significant increase in gold prices by 2026. He suggests that the establishment understands the potential for supply difficulties in the physical gold market and that the recent pullback in metals prices may not alleviate delivery issues in London. Macleod also highlights China’s significant gold holdings and its efforts to insulate itself from US economic policies, including the potential for a gold-backed Yuan. He also mentions Russia’s increasing gold holdings and production.
Macleod concludes by expressing concern about the valuation disparity between equities and bonds, which he believes is more stretched than ever in history. He predicts that when the credit bubble bursts, it will lead to a rapid decline in the current financial system.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:15 – Repo Facility Liquidity Strain 00:03:55 – Bank Bailouts and Rescues 00:07:40 – 1929 Parallels and Tariffs 00:08:59 – Inflation and Bond Yields 00:10:59 – Weimar Germany Comparisons 00:15:45 – Stock Market Bubble Dynamics 00:19:50 – High Risk Market & US Dollar 00:22:47 – Metals Pullback Delivery Issues 00:28:55 – Silver Squeeze China Shift 00:32:26 – China’s Massive Gold Holdings 00:39:00 – Geopolitical Risks & Gold 00:58:55 – Wrap Up
Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.
Alasdair started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.
Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.
For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman’s terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.
Competent Man Podcast 
