Notes on the Week Ahead

Every summer when I was growing up, we would spend a week or two on holiday in the West of Ireland.  These trips would always start in discomfort, as I was one of a large number of children squished into the back of a small car. 

In this uniquely repetitive era for all of us, Saturday marked a first for my wife, Sari, and I. Armed with a sharp pair of scissors and with a manic gleam in her eye, she attacked the task of cutting my hair.

Last week, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, a huge package of federal spending and tax cuts, primarily aimed at helping the economy weather the recession triggered by our “social distancing” response to the COVID-19 virus.

The problem with COVID-19 is that it is both sufficiently contagious and sufficiently lethal to exact a terrible human toll.  This toll, as can be seen from the mortality figures from China and Italy, can be made substantially worse when the health care system is overwhelmed.

The spread of COVID-19 continues to have a dramatic impact on lifestyles, economic activity, monetary and fiscal policy, and financial markets. 

2020 has quickly become the year of the virus. It should, of course, first be recognized that, for some families around the world today and, sadly probably many more in the months ahead, issues of economics, politics and finance will be but a small footnote to personal tragedy. 

Springing to life nearly a mile above sea level, the Zambezi River gathers strength, speed and tributaries for more than two hundred miles before hurtling over the Chavuma Falls in Western Zambia. 

Despite a strong January jobs report, real economic growth is continuing to decelerate in the first quarter of 2020 and could fall below 2% year-over-year for the first time since 2016.

Last week, I decided to avoid shaking anyone’s hand. It’s not that I have a virus.  It’s just that my job, which involves lots of plane travel and hand-shaking, make me particularly susceptible to getting one.  And I would really rather not be ill.

Among the card games of my misspent youth was a game called Pontoon. The rules of Pontoon are very similar to Blackjack – the object is to get as close to 21 as possible without going over.