Notes on the Week Ahead

Apparently, the hard-working analysts at the Congressional Budget Office threw in the towel on Friday afternoon. They were scheduled to release their estimates of the budget deficit for July but, late in the day, the CBO website announced that the numbers would be coming out today instead.

New GDP data released last week confirmed that the 2020 recession has been the deepest in over 70 years, with a peak-to-trough decline in real output of 10.6%. This, of course, was already evident in monthly data on consumption, employment, trade and inflation and has been reflected in a very sharp decline in corporate profits.

Last week, I was preparing for a zoom call with some of our client advisors at JPMorgan Asset Management, by reviewing a list of questions they had kindly supplied in advance, and I came across a particularly awkward one: what has been my biggest investment mistake?

In life before the pandemic, (and it seems like years ago), Sari and I would often drive from our home in Massachusetts to New York for the weekend. The destination was always fun – seeing the kids, exploring new restaurants, catching a Broadway show and sometimes running a road race the next morning to burn off the extra calories. But we had to get there first.

In the week ahead, as has been the case for most of the year, markets will likely take their cues from medical rather than economic data. The key question is whether America will see a second wave in the Covid-19 pandemic.  The answer to that question has, of course, profound human and social consequences.  However, it also has implications for the economy, for fiscal and monetary policy, and, ultimately, for investment strategy.

In recent weeks, as stocks have rebounded strongly from their March lows, many have asked if the market has come too far, too fast. Thursday’s sharp selloff may have been an expression of that concern.

In the week ahead, America will be focused on the killing of George Floyd and its aftermath. These are difficult days for our country, beset as we are by a pandemic, a deep recession, political division and racial tension.

In the early days of her marriage, my mother tried to achieve the almost impossible goals established by society for a 1960s wife.  Apart from tending to the needs of my somewhat Victorian father, she did her best, on an inadequate allowance, to keep herself and a growing family fed and clothed. 

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Unemployment Rate for April, which will undoubtedly be the single ugliest economic statistic of my lifetime. We estimate that, based mainly on continuing unemployment claims, the number will come in at 15.5%. We also estimate that roughly 19 million Payroll Jobs were lost in the month.

In the classic Roadrunner skit, the Coyote buries one ACME box of dynamite beneath a pile of birdseed, strings the wires to a detonator hidden behind a rock, waits for our hero to arrive and start pecking, and then forcefully pushes down on the plunger.