ML - The way the world works - analyzing how things work

1. Invest in foreign companies with a. high dividend earnings b. participating in global exports c. part of an economy that is growing (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico).

Gambling instead of taxes: State-run gambling is replacing taxes and undermines the requirement of democracy that its citizens make choices about how their taxes are raised and distributed to support the public will. Gamble supports the concept of fate as the mechanism for distributing the bounty of the world and subverts the idea that hard work and learning pay off. Gambling organizations will appeal to 1 in 120 million odds by putting winners out front in the media and promoting these individuals, who have received a distribution of the population wealth just because of luck.

In 2012 Japanese banks are buying us treasuries to reduce exposure to the euro and prevent rates to increase in the real estate market. When rates increase real estate valuations decrease. A decrease in valuations decrease asset values in Japanese bank portfolios in their shadow accounts. The no reported valuations represent loses to the bank. The stock market anticipates these losses and lowers price expectation based on demand. The bank stock will begin to decrease. The large Japanese banks represent a quarter of the Japanese stock market. A sudden drop in the bank stock price would trigger a sell off. Therefore, Japanese banks are forced to buy us treasuries to keep rates low. Karate verse kungfu currency wars.

Russia has 80 billion barrels of oil in its reserves and exports 10 million barrels of oil a day Bond yields climbed after Russia seized the Crimea peninsula in Ukraine in 2014 The conflict led to Western sanctions against Russia and a collapse in the price of oil The resulting economic crisis sent Russian bond yields up to 11 5% Russia turned to China and other Asian countries for financing WHY DID RUSSIA BECOME AN OIL EXPORTER? Russia has the third largest proven oil reserves in the world and is the second largest oil exporter A series of discoveries in the 1960s and 1970s in Western Siberia made Russia an oil producer However, Soviet planners and engineers did not build a pipeline to export the oil and gas In the 1980s, they did not have the technology to develop new fields The Soviet Union ended its oil exports in 1991 Former Soviet oil fields began exporting oil and gas again after the collapse of the Soviet Union Russia became an oil exporter in 2004 Russia exports almost all of its oil and gas It supplies about 10% of the world’s oil and about 30% of the world’s natural gas Russia has developed a pipeline system to export oil and gas to Western Europe, Asia, and other parts of the world Russia’s oil exports have grown Oil exports reached a record of 10 53 million barrels per day in October 2018 Russia’s natural gas exports have been relatively flat WHY DID RUSSIA BECOME AN OIL IMPORTER? Oil production in Russia has fallen since the collapse of the Soviet Union Russia produced 10 63 million barrels per day in 2015 Russia’s oil exports fell to 5 13 million barrels per day in 2015 Russia’s oil production fell because of the collapse of Soviet oil fields and lack of investment in new fields Russia has increased its oil production since 2015 Oil production has climbed to 10 86 million barrels per day in 2018 Russia’s natural gas production has fallen more quickly than oil production The Soviet Union used to export natural gas It became an importer in 2008 WHY HAS RUSSIA INCREASED ITS OIL PRODUCTION? In the early 2000s, Russian oil production declined But the Russian government began to increase its oil production in the 2010s Most of the growth in oil production has come from Western Siberia why Will Development Of Oil Fields In Siberia Be Important Investments Russia has abundant oil fields in Siberia, and they can be developed The country has the second largest oil reserves in the world, and the energy industry accounts for 30% of the country’s gross domestic product According to the U S Energy Information Administration, Russia has the world’s largest reserves of oil and gas The Kremlin has also promised to develop Siberia’s oil and gas fields in order to boost crude production The country's economy is heavily dependent on oil, and the government has planned to develop new fields in order to reduce its dependence on oil exports The country’s oil production has fallen from a peak of over 10 million barrels per day to below 10 million barrels

The answer can be found in the complexity of the work of organizations As described in the previous section, flat organizations with more fluid processes allow more people to participate more often in shaping the future of the organization This is a key, but insufficient condition for productivity The theory of complexity shows why this is insufficient In our experience, we find that organizations that achieve high levels of productivity do so because they have developed a sufficiently complex and adaptive structure These organizations have created polycentric organizations, in which authority and influence are distributed in many different places Within these polycentric organizations, people are able to exercise their judgment and develop new ideas and initiatives In contrast, traditional hierarchical organizations have a very simple structure, which is adaptive only under very specific circumstances For this reason, they are very resistant to change, which, in turn, makes them very inflexible That is why a flat organization structure is not sufficient for high productivity A flat organization structure can be very effective for disseminating information, but it is insufficient for developing new ideas To have a truly productive organization, as well as one that is adaptive to change, you need a complex and adaptive structure A COMPLEX STRUCTURE IS MORE RESPONSIVE TO CHANGE THAN A SIMPLE STRUCTURE A complex structure is more responsive to change than a simple structure This is because a complex structure has more degrees of freedom, which means that the structure allows more options and alternatives than a simple structure In a simple structure, changes in the external environment must be accommodated by changing the structure of the organization In a complex structure, the changes in the external environment can be accommodated by changing the behavior of the organization’s people Hence, a complex structure is more flexible and adaptable than a simple structure Thus, complex structures are better able to respond to changing conditions and to benefit from new opportunities A COMPLEX STRUCTURE IS MORE RESILIENT THAT A SIMPLE STRUCTURE A complex structure is more resilient than a simple structure Because a complex structure has more degrees of freedom, it is less vulnerable to disturbances, and therefore, it is more able to recover from disturbances A complex structure has a greater ability to absorb disturbances by adjusting its internal structure rather than by suffering from a major structural change

The Pareto Principle is the idea that 80 percent of your revenue comes from 20 percent of your customers In other words, 20 percent of your customers are making you 80 percent of your revenue The Pareto Principle is also the idea that 80 percent of your problems come from 20 percent of your customers In other words, 20 percent of your customers are causing you 80 percent of your problems The Pareto Principle is also the idea that 80 percent of your opportunities come from 20 percent of your customers In other words, 20 percent of your customers are providing you with 80 percent of your opportunities The Pareto Principle is also the idea that 80 percent of your complaints come from 20 percent of your customers In other words, 20 percent of your customers are giving you 80 percent of your complaints The Pareto Principle is also the idea that 80 percent of your profit comes from 20 percent of your customers In other words, 20 percent of

Latin America needs to stop inflation by turning off the spigot of government spending; dismantle the unproductive monopolies owned by the government or the military; cut excessive nominal tax rates that discourage honest enterprise, but increase tax collection.

The industry has suffered from a lack of new issuance in the past several years, as well as a lack of demand for the existing supply The result has been a steep drop in the prices of high-yield bonds as investors have rushed to sell bonds to raise cash for their deals With fewer bonds available, investors have been forced to buy longer-dated maturities, driving up the average maturity of the high-yield market

The activity oriented decision model is a conceptually definition and the practical discipline proposed exciting possiblities. Activies are analyzed, defined, and sequenced. Resources are allocated to the activity. The activity outcomes are measured to determine, if they are meeting requirements. Managers weight the risks by asking "what are the benefits of the activity?","What are the fallout impacts for failure to implement the activity?", and "what are the impacts to the organization long term by implementing the activity?" Analysis of the process, results in time and budget allocation estimates. Schedules provide time lines and sequences linked to a resources. Managers must coordination various organizations to gain access to a resource. A resource represents a individual in a specialize field of knowledge. Communication and coordination are necessary to effectively manage various resources, so each individual understands, what is expected and what to produce. Budgets and time provide the boundary of the activity problem. Its possible to have a budget or schedule which exceeds the boundary of the problem, making the activity unfeasible. To avoid this problem, the manager must provide clear objectives to be developed and maintained. The objectives scope must stay within a predefined problem boundary.

The short answer is that holders of T-Bonds don’t want to hold T-Bonds They want cash T-Bonds are “collateralized” in that the government really does have collateral for the T-Bonds In the event of a default, the government would be able to seize that collateral So this is what the Fed is doing It’s buying up T-Bonds in order to support the price of T-Bonds The stated goal is to keep the price of T-Bonds from falling too far If the price of T-Bonds falls too far, then the government will have to pay higher interest rates on its debt If the government has to pay higher interest rates, then it will have less money to spend on programs that it wants to spend money on It’s a vicious circle If you have to pay higher interest rates on your debt, then you have less money to spend If you have less money to spend, then you have to raise taxes more If you have to raise taxes more, then people have less money to spend And so on The government needs to keep the price of T-Bonds from falling too far But why would the price of T-Bonds fall too far? Well, imagine that the US economy got into trouble Then it would be less likely that people would want to buy US T-Bonds They would instead want to buy other things People would buy fewer T-Bonds, and the price would fall The government would have to pay higher interest rates on its debt, and it would have less money to spend That’s what’s happening here The economy is getting worse and worse, and so people are less likely to want to buy US T-Bonds So the price is falling If the price falls too far, then the government will have to pay higher interest rates on its debt So the Fed is buying up T-Bonds in order to support the price We’re in the worst financial crisis in history The economy is getting worse and worse This is a sign of how bad things are But it’s also a sign that