

ML - The way the world works - analyzing how things work
David Nishimoto
Machine learning is the most important technological breakthrough in the 21st century. Listen to my views on the future of machine learning. Code demonstrations on YouTube under my channel David Nishimoto
Episodes
Mentioned books

May 16, 2022 • 3min
Social engineered robot design
The idea is that robots will be able to learn how to recognize, classify, and even behave in certain situations by interacting with people like a child does: by watching and listening to what people do and say, and by trying to imitate them. My research focuses on a small part of this bigger picture: on the design of learning algorithms that help robots learn from people. Implementing a social robot requires designing a robot that can recognize and classify people, and then interact with them in a meaningful way. To do this, we need to develop learning algorithms for robots that can help them recognize and classify people, and then learn how to interact with them. The problem of learning from interaction is a hard problem. It is difficult because interactions are complex and dynamic. People are complex Robots need to interact with people, but people are complex. People have a rich set of physical, verbal, and non-verbal behaviors. People have a rich set of goals. People have different personalities. People are unpredictable. People know when they are being observed, and act accordingly. People change as they interact with others. Interactions are complex People have many ways to interact with each other. People use physical gestures, speech, facial expressions, body posture, and more. People use many different kinds of words. People use different kinds of words to convey different kinds of meanings. People use words to suggest actions. People use words to suggest the kinds of actions they might be willing to take. People use words to negotiate the kinds of actions they might take. People use words to negotiate how their actions might be received. People use words to negotiate how actions might be received. People suggest actions that are not available at the moment. People suggest actions that might be available at a later time. People change their minds, and suggest new actions, new ways of doing things, and new ways of negotiating. People demonstrate their understanding using words. People use words to show their understanding of the current situation, their understanding of what they are doing, and their understanding of what they are going to do next.

May 16, 2022 • 9min
Bible imagery - the time of man
We can be grateful that the Lord will restore the plain and precious truths of the gospel. We will experience the love and understanding of Christ, and our hearts will love Him. Just as we adore a lamb, His kindness and strength will be a joy to us as Satan rages. We will look to Christ in every thought. We will come upon to the Savior and be saved. He is the way, and His name and infinite atonement redeem us. Man. The revelator saw the salvation of man through the Savior who is plain and precious to us. We love Him because He first loved us. There is one great Shepherd over all the earth, and that is Christ. Salvation is made possible through the covenants. We walk the covenant path back into the presence of God, the creator of heaven, the earth and the universe.

May 15, 2022 • 19min
K129
The rising of the k129 target object nuclear submarine

May 15, 2022 • 3min
Bible imagery the two prophets
Revelation 11
5 And if any man will hurt them, fire proceedeth out of their mouth, and devoureth their enemies: and if any man will hurt them, he must in this manner be killed.
Elijah had power to call down fire from heaven to burn up the altar of Baal.
6 These have power to shut heaven, that it rain not in the days of their prophecy: and have power over waters to turn them to blood, and to smite the earth with all plagues, as often as they will.
Moses had power to bring plagues against pharaoh.
The Jews know Moses and Elijah. Christ, in the feeding of the 5000, was connecting to the miracle of Elijah. He was saying I am the Messiah that Elijah represented in his miracles.
Moses likewise connects to Christ. Moses, like Christ, was tempted by Satan to worship him. The parting of the Red Sea was like Christ in that He provide a way for man to escape death and sin on dry land. The dry land represented the stability and sureness of God—the path of safety through a wicked world. Christ’s atonement creates the barrier against the wicked allowing man to journey through life unscathed by sin.
Who is your oppressor? The Lord is strong enough to preserve the righteous from sin. The wicked will eventually die like the cycle of grass. Pharaoh and his men perished in the Red Sea as they sought to pursue and destroy the people of God. The Lord will fight the battles of His people. His people are to trust the Lord will preserve them.
With both Moses and Elijah defending the people, they are being prepared to be saved by Christ. The arch enemy is about to deliver the death blow having killed the two prophets, letting their bodies remain in the streets for three days, when Christ descends and touches the Mount of Olives and it cleaves in half, and the people escape through the golden pass through the mountain. The path is straight like the path through the Red Sea. Christ then shows the people his five spike wounds. Then, and only then, do the people realize that Christ is the Messiah, the Holy One of Israel.

May 15, 2022 • 53min
Uss liberty
What happened and why

May 14, 2022 • 34min
Thoughts for the week
Thoughts

May 13, 2022 • 9min
Bible imagery - the great and abominable church
We deserve what we get for allowing the constitutional protections God caused to be raised up be replaced by an arm-of-flesh system that can so easily impoverish and enslave the people. It is leaving us all as paupers and serfs in the land our forefathers fought to make free. It isn’t free. We have allowed Gadiantons to get above us and have not awakened to our awful situation as Ether warned us in the Book of Mormon.

May 13, 2022 • 4min
WHY ARE BOND YIELDS SO LOW FOR SO LONG
And that brings us to a big question why are bond yields so low and why has this phenomenon been going on for the last several years?
It is a puzzle we have been trying to solve for some time but the more we learn, the less we understand
The orthodox view is that it is a rational response to the economic conditions
The argument goes that the economy is still fragile, unemployment is high and inflation is low, so people are not demanding much of a return on their investments
But we have been here before
In 1999, the world was in the midst of a technology bubble, the Nasdaq index was hitting record highs and Australia was in the midst of a construction boom with house prices rising by more than 15 per cent year-on-year in some markets
Yet the bond market wasn't behaving like this
Ten-year bond yields were 4 5 per cent
Low bond rates happen every decade as a result of central banks buying bonds
The first time was in the late 1940s, when 10-year yields dropped to about 3 per cent
The next time was in the mid-1960s, when they dropped to about 3
And the last time was in the late 1990s
This time around, the drop looks more extreme than the last two episodes, but the one in the 1960s is the most interesting
It is worth noting that the RBA wasn't targeting inflation so those yields are not comparable to today's
But the point is that the bond market is not just responding to Fed policy
It is responding to something else
We have a hypothesis about this
We think the current low-yield environment is the result of three things
A credit boom
A housing boom
And a mining boom
In other words, the credit, housing and mining booms are creating the demand for bonds that is keeping yields low
Let's take these one at a time
The credit boom
This is a good measure of the credit boom because it is mostly used by companies to fund investment

May 13, 2022 • 6min
HOW DOES A WEAKER YUAN CAUSE INFLATION IN CHINA TO INCREASE
The answer is in Chinas monetary policy China has been pumping credit into the economy for over a decade We call it printing money in the west The Chinese call it credit growth
Chinas monetary policy is similar to Japans in the 1980s, just on a larger scale The Chinese are not printing money to cover its deficits as Japan did But they are pumping money into the economy to promote economic growth, and they are doing it at a much faster pace than Japan ever did
China is running the largest credit bubble in history The total amount of credit in Chinas economy, including loans and bonds
China is at least four times larger than the US in terms of credit market debt China is also growing its credit at about twice the rate of the US Thats why the Chinese economy is growing much faster than the US But its also why China is more vulnerable to a collapse in the yuan
If the yuan keeps falling, the Chinese will have to print more yuan to cover their dollar debts thats why they hav already started to print more yuan
In just the past month, China added $70 billion in yuan to its monetary base Thatâs more than the $66 billion in yuan that China added during all of 2015
A stronger yuan would make it more difficult for China to print yuan to cover its debts That would slow the growth of credit in China and increase the risk of a credit collapse Thats why the Chinese are resisting pressure to let their currency appreciate
A US recession could cause China to print even more yuan, which would cause the yuan to fall even faster Thats why the Chinese are resisting US pressure to let the yuan appreciate
The Chinese dont want to be blamed for a financial crisis They also dont want to take the blame for a US recession So they are trying to avoid both The Chinese are betting that the US will deal with the current account deficit and that the US will also deal with its debt problem
The Chinese lost a similar bet when they let the yuan appreciate in 1994 The yuan appreciated against The Chinese lost an estimated $1 trillion in the process

May 12, 2022 • 14min
Imagery of the Bible - Joseph Sold Into Egypt Prototype of Christ
Joseph was son of Jacob and Rachael. He was a visionary youth. Jacob loved Joseph realizing he was highly-favored of the Lord. There seems to be jealousy among “sons of Bilhah, and with the sons of Zilpah” with Joseph. Joseph reported the evil to his father. The jealousy among the brothers increased towards Joseph because of his integrity and his favor by his father. Jacob gave Joseph a coat of many colors as a sign he was the birthright son the chosen one of Israel. Joseph was the son to whom the priesthood rights of presidency would be given. Joseph would be the savior to the family. Jacob loved Joseph, and his brothers hated him. Joseph was a visionary man and a seer. In vision, he sees his brothers bowing to him.


