ML - The way the world works - analyzing how things work

WHY HAS THE MARKET IGNORED MONTHLY INCREASES IN FOOD AND ENERGY COSTS The upward path of food and energy prices has been well-documented by the U S Department of Labor and other governmental bodies The yearly changes in the Consumer Price Index for all items since 2000 The CPI for food and energy And it is apparent that the inflation rate for food and energy has been accelerating since 2005 The CPI It includes price increases for foods such as bread, milk, eggs, meats, fish and vegetables It also includes price increases for energy items such as gasoline, heating oil, natural gas and electricity The drawbacks of this methodology are that it doesn't include the often-larger price increases for grocery items such as frozen foods and packaged foods, and it doesn't include the price increases for energy services such as electricity and heating oil The CPI methodology significantly understates the total cost of food and energy items, particularly for low- and middle-income consumers the annual change in the CPI for food and energy from 2000 to 2008 The orange line shows the annual change in the CPI for energy, and the blue line shows the annual change in the CPI for food the prices for energy and food have increased at a much faster pace than the total CPI CPI for food and energy accelerated from 2005 to 2008 The year-to-year percentage change in the CPI for food and energy from 2005 to 2008 The orange line shows the rate of change in the CPI for energy, and the blue line shows the rate of change in the CPI for food the annual cost of a grocery cart increased by 13 percent from 2005 to 2008, and the cost of a gallon of gasoline increased by 26 percent during the same time period

The drop in Japanese bond yields has been attributed to investors switching from low-yield bonds in Europe to higher-yielding Japan But analysts say it is also due to the Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary policy, which is aimed at lowering the yen's value to boost exports and reignite inflation Its bond-buying programme has been running for several years https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-central-bank-keeps-up-yield-defense-focus-bond-buying-schedule-2022-03-31/ Bank of Japan has 6.2 trillion dollars in financial assets portfolio with 72 percent being bonds https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-central-bank-keeps-up-yield-defense-focus-bond-buying-schedule-2022-03-31/ The programme has been criticised by the International Monetary Fund and foreign investors, who argue that the BOJ may have to sell the bonds it buys to raise capital, thus raising the country's debt levels WHAT HAS THE BOJ DONE TO REVERSE THE CURRENCY'S RISE? The BOJ has said it will continue to buy government bonds until inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, reaches 2% It also said it would increase the yield on the 10-year government bond to 0 1% from around 0 0%, which means the central bank would pay investors interest of just 0 1% to hold their government bonds The bank's governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, said it was "inflation-denialist policy" but that it would be effective in fighting deflation Analysts say the central bank's bond-buying programme, which it launched in April 2013, has been effective in weakening the currency and boosting exports But they worry that the BOJ's decision to keep buying government bonds and promising to keep interest rates low for years to come could lead to an asset bubble, which could hurt the economy WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF JAPAN'S MONETARY POLICY? Japan's central bank has agreed to continue with its stimulus programme until deflation has been beaten, but some analysts say the central bank could soon start winding down "Now that the economy has improved, it's time to remove the monetary stimulus," said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co

The Lord is the bride groom. He will receive his bride: the House of Israel, who divorced Him in the past through harlot-like behaviors of disloyalty. The House of Israel was the wife of His youth, having wandered for four-thousand years. The marriage will be epic, and all things will be restored—a love between husband and wife restored—the feelings of the heart extended to each other. The bride groom provides beautiful clothes for the bride. He arranges for a wedding party to go out to meet the marriage party. The bridegroom puts precious jewels on the bride and removes her scorn.

the exorbitant price of oil was the key factor in the economic collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1980s The world oil price collapsed in 1986 to a low of $10 per barrel by the end of the year The price of oil never recovered in the 80s and then crashed in the early 1990s as the Soviet Union collapsed The Mexican oil price collapsed too in 1986 and then did not recover until the mid 1990s Mexico was in a recession throughout most of the 80s and low oil prices and the debt crisis of 1982 triggered a severe recession that lasted into the mid 1990s The Mexican debt crisis of 1982 and the collapse of the peso in December, 1982 was triggered by the collapse of the price of oil in the year prior to the crisis Mexicos oil production was still huge in the 1980s as the Mexican economy was driven by oil exports, as it was in the 1920s and 30s The Mexican oil price collapsed in 1986 and the government was forced to devalue the peso in December, 1986 by 60 percent and then by another 35 percent Mexico defaulted on its debt in 1988, after the government had introduced a massive austerity program in 1987 Mexico had an austerity program like Greece and other European nations today Mexicos austerity program was introduced in 1987, after the peso was devalued by 60 percent in 1986, in the wake of the collapse of the price of oil in 1985 With the collapse of the price of oil, Mexico went into a deep recession in 1986 that lasted until the mid 1990s The Mexican peso collapsed in late 1982 and there was a currency crisis, a debt crisis, a banking crisis and a recession The Mexican government was forced to devalue the peso by 60 percent in 1986, after the price of oil collapsed in 1985 The government also introduced austerity programs in 1987 and 1988, as the peso kept falling in value and the debt crisis kept getting worse

I am not a "perma-bear" -- someone who is always predicting bearish events -- but I am a "perma-realist" -- someone who is right more often than wrong Every time I predicted the price of oil would drop, it did I predicted the collapse of oil prices when oil was at $20 a barrel I said the price of oil would drop to $15 a barrel in early 2016 I said the price of oil would drop to $10 a barrel later in 2016, and I said the price of oil would continue to drop to $5 a barrel by the end of 2016 I was right I am now predicting that the price of oil will drop to $2 a barrel in 2022 I am not predicting that the price of oil will go to $2 a barrel overnight I am predicting that the price of oil will drop to $2 a barrel in 2022 because the world is about to experience a massive oil supply glut in 2019 and 2020 If the price of oil is $2 a barrel in 2022, it will be the first time in history that the price of oil has been this low Think of it this way: $2 a barrel is more than twice as cheap as the price of gas at the pump right now Think of the impact that $2 a barrel oil will have on the entire world https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/oil-barrel-prices-economic-supply-demand-coronavirus-covid19-united-states/ I am not making this up I am not a perma-bear I am not trying to scare you and make you nervous I am simply telling you what is going to happen WHAT ABOUT THE THRILLING HIGHS OF THE 1970s? People often ask me what is going to happen to the price of oil in the future They ask me why I am so pessimistic about the price of oil when the price of oil is going to $100 a barrel or even $200 a barrel Break even price for oil drilling is 50 to 60 dollars a barrel. The long term futures market in oil is taking losses as cost drop because of shale increased production and full oil storage capacities being reached. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0521 People forget that the price of oil was $45 a barrel in 1972 They forget the price of oil was $22 a barrel in 1974 They forget the price of oil was $35 a barrel in 1980 They forget the price of oil was $33 a barrel in 1981 They forget the price of oil was $38 a barrel in 1982 The expensive oil of the 1970s is all they remember People have also forgotten the impact of the 1973 oil crisis

the exorbitant price of oil was the key factor in the economic collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1980s The world oil price collapsed in 1986 to a low of $10 per barrel by the end of the year The price of oil never recovered in the 80s and then crashed in the early 1990s as the Soviet Union collapsed The Mexican oil price collapsed too in 1986 and then did not recover until the mid 1990s Mexico was in a recession throughout most of the 80s and low oil prices and the debt crisis of 1982 triggered a severe recession that lasted into the mid 1990s The Mexican debt crisis of 1982 and the collapse of the peso in December, 1982 was triggered by the collapse of the price of oil in the year prior to the crisis Mexicos oil production was still huge in the 1980s as the Mexican economy was driven by oil exports, as it was in the 1920s and 30s The Mexican oil price collapsed in 1986 and the government was forced to devalue the peso in December, 1986 by 60 percent and then by another 35 percent Mexico defaulted on its debt in 1988, after the government had introduced a massive austerity program in 1987

why are junk bonds growing out of control The explanation is simple The Fed€™s policies are a boon for Wall Street, but the market is simply not getting the money that is being created by the trillions, because of the Feds Quantitative Easing (QE) policies That is, the Fed€™s total assets are near $9 trillion, but most of that is sitting on the books of the Fed and not flowing through the economy https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL The Wall Street Journal article notes that, “in the past four years, commercial and industrial loans outstanding is $3 trillion https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BUSLOANS?back=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fsearch%3Fclient%3Dsafari%26as_qdr%3Dall%26as_occt%3Dany%26safe%3Dactive%26as_q%3Dwhat+is+the+total+industrial+loans%26channel%3Daplab%26source%3Da-app1%26hl%3Den Where did the money go? To the top of the economy, where it helps the super-rich get even richer, and makes the stock market bubble bigger than ever As MarketWatchs Rex Nutting notes, €œthe top 1% of households had a 27% share of all income in 2012, the highest since the government began collecting the data in 1967 The stock market is rising partly because the biggest companies in the US are sitting on record piles of cash https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/2021/03/junk-bonds.php But the rich don€™t just hoard cash They invest in bonds, stocks, real estate, and anything else they think will make them money They invest in junk bonds because they are high yield, but also because there is a lot of demand for them According to the Wall Street Journal, Junk-bond investors have been on a hot streak And high-yield bond funds have attracted $10 trillion dollars https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/the-junk-bond-market-is-on-fire-this-year-as-yields-hit-a-record-low.html one economist who warns: if you look back to the late 1990s, high-yield bonds were a great investment, but the risks were there What goes up must come down Junk bonds are a risky investment in todays economy, just like they were in the last bubble The Feds zero interest rate policy has created some bizarre market distortions Junk bonds have become a safe haven for investors as the stock market has swooned But if the stock market begins to fall and the economy continues to sputter, investors will get nervous, and junk bonds will lose their safe haven€ status

China is currently the worlds second-largest economy and is projected to be the largest by the year 2050 Chinas economy is growing at 2% per year and is expected to continue to grow at an average of 2% annually https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN&start=2003 China is now the third-largest destination for U S exports and a major market for Us goods and services, with more than $164 billion in Us goods sold in China in 2020 China is also a major source of imports to the United States, with Us imports from China totaling $450 billion in 2020. Us investors, who are bringing billions of dollars into China, are also contributing to China's rapid economic growth WHY DO MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES DESIRE TO ESTABLISH A CHINA PRESENCE? The Chinese government has made significant changes to its legal and regulatory framework to encourage foreign investment Foreign companies are now permitted to sell directly to Chinese consumers The Chinese government has streamlined the administrative procedures required of foreign investors The Chinese government has granted an increasing number of concessions and special incentives to encourage foreign investment

According to the U S Census Bureau, there are more than 5200 credit unions in the United States, with almost 114 million members The average credit union has about $1 billion in assets and 21,000 member https://mobile.creditunions.com/#/6922/blogs/industry-insights/members-by-the-numbers-1q18/ What's in store for the future? In the next five years, the total number of credit unions, their membership and assets will likely increase This may be due to the fact that many of the financial institutions that were deemed "too big to fail" are now in the process of being broken up, with the U Congress currently debating the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which is intended to create a new banking system that is less prone to failure The Act will also affect the Us Treasury, which insures all deposits in credit unions up to $250,000 By creating a new system, there will be an opportunity to create a new type of banking institution that is more responsive to the needs of its customers This could give credit unions a competitive advantage over larger banks The bottom line is that the future of credit unions looks bright Credit unions continue to innovate and find new ways to attract members and increase their revenues The credit union system is in a unique position to respond to the needs of its members, and as long as it continues to do so, it will continue to grow and prosper

There is a common perception that renewable energy is an expensive option However, renewable energy is now close to, or even cheaper than, fossil fuel options in a number of countries A report by the US Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory suggests that by 2020, the cost of solar PV will be cheaper than the cost of onshore wind globally Renewable energy is also becoming more cost competitive as technology advances and economies of scale develop, creating a virtuous circle that will continue to drive down costs The price of oil, one of the main inputs for fossil fuel generation, has increased to more than $114 per barrel creating an incentive for players to switch to renewable sources The current level of subsidies for renewable energy is not expected to be sustainable in the long term However, as the cost of renewable energy continues to fall, the cost of fossil fuel generation will increase as a result of the need for higher taxes to meet climate change commitments Renewable energy is also expected to benefit from better technology and improved efficiency, such as the increasing use of battery storage and new smart grid systems, which will facilitate greater integration of renewable energy into the grid WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES? One of the main obstacles to the further development of renewable energy is the lack of a robust regulatory framework in many countries Countries that have taken a clear policy decision to decarbonise their energy mix have seen strong results In the EU, for example, the 2020 renewable energy target has already been met, and the region is expected to exceed its 32% target for 2030 The UK is also one of the few European countries that has a legally binding target However, some countries, including the US, Australia, Japan and China, have no binding renewable energy targets and are not expected to meet their non-binding targets The lack of a clear policy environment is also a challenge for investors as they do not know where to allocate their capital Finance is also a major challenge Renewable energy has traditionally been financed through feed-in tariffs or renewable energy certificates, but these schemes are being removed in many countries Instead, governments are introducing auctions and tenders, which can be complex and expensive for developers The lack of policy and finance has had a negative impact on the development of new projects in the past