ML - The way the world works - analyzing how things work

Japanese pension funds are scooping up a growing number of U S Treasury bonds, pushing them to the top of the list of foreign holders of U government debt foreign countries held a total of 7.55 trillion U.S. dollars in U.S. treasury securities as of September 2021. Japan held 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars. In 2021, the United States had a total public national debt of 28.43 trillion U.S. dollars https://www.statista.com/statistics/246420/major-foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-debt/ With the worlds largest public debts and a shrinking population, Japans pension funds have looked overseas for yield in recent years, and have been particularly attracted to U bonds, which pay higher returns than similarly rated debt While a small portion of the total, the purchases are a boon to the U Treasury, which has been looking to raise cash to finance record budget deficits, and analysts said they could also help the Federal Reserve as it tries to unwind its bond portfolio The Japanese have been buying U Treasuries for years and years, but it seems to be accelerating,a long-term trend that is going to continue Japanese investors have been particularly attracted to the high yields on U Treasury bonds, which are more attractive than similar-rated debt U Treasuries with a rating of Aaa yield around 4.5 percent, while Japanese bonds with a lower yield That is a big difference, considering the Japanese governments debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest in the world at over 200 percent, while the United States has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio of around 80 percent The Japanese government has also been buying U debt to help finance its own spending, as its domestic bond market has shrunk

The purchase of stock is expensive It is more expensive than the purchase of bonds The dividend that is paid from the firm to the shareholder is much less expensive than the purchase of stock Thus, if the firm cuts its dividend it will not be able to sell as many shares of its stock as it otherwise would have sold The firm may not be able to raise enough money to finance its investment plans In general, the firm will want to pay out a dividend that is large enough that the stock price is above its normal (equilibrium) price The firm will want to avoid a dividend cut For example, if the firm's stock is selling at $100 per share, the firm will want to pay a dividend of $2 50 or 3 percent This is just enough to keep the stock price above $100 If the dividend is cut to, say, $1 50, the stock price will drop, perhaps to $90 The firm will experience a stock turnover, and thus a loss of potential revenue from the sale of the stock The dividend cut will have hurt the firm The dividend payout ratio is one of the most important numbers in determining the value of the firm It has major implications for the price of the stock WHAT IS THE DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO AND WHY IS IT IMPORTANT? The dividend payout ratio is the ratio of the dividend to the earnings of the firm It is usually expressed as a percentage For example, if the firm's earnings are $100 and it is paying out a dividend of $2, then the dividend payout ratio is 2 percent The dividend payout ratio is important because it is a measure of the amount of earnings that will be paid to the shareholders The higher the payout ratio, the higher the dividend If a firm is paying out a high percentage of its earnings as dividends, then other investors will want to buy the firm's stock because they will know that they are receiving a high dividend

It will seem like the wicked are prospering and that they don’t have to pay the consequences for sin. This pattern of behavior will flourish for a time. Satan and his archtyrant will terrorize men. Fear will fill their hearts as stability will be lost. The laws and commandments of God will be dismissed by a secular group following their own moral relativism. The Lord will then suddenly appear to the world after the olive harvest of gathering and smash down the wine press, having trampled the wicked. Judgment and reckoning will come upon the unrepentant. The Lord does not delight in destruction. However, he does uphold His laws and justice. Satan will be bound, and the millennium will start.

1. In 2011, lightbridge share price was $6 or 4.8 times book value. 2. Lightbridge technology could reduce radioactive waste from nuclear weapon production 3. The Thorium reactor design could lead to a 50% reduction in volume of Uranium 4. Lightbridge reactors could result in a 90% reduction in long term radio toxicity, after 200 to 300 years 5. Thorium technology could increase reactor power by 30% and lower the cost per megawatt of energy 6. Why is Lightbridge still reporting a loss? (Reference Link) 7. China announced it would build a new thorium based molten salt reactor. 8. Kirk Sorensen’s company Flibe Energy is developing a small thorium powered reactor using a liquid salt core. 9. The world has an estimated 4.4 million tons of Thorium (Reference Link) 10. U-233 can be bred from thorium in a blanket 11. U-233 is better than uranium-235 and plutonium-239, because of its higher neutron yield per neutron absorbed 12. When U238 absorbs a neutron, it transmutes into U239 rapidly decaying into neptunium-239 and then into plutonium-239

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-28/tesla-lays-off-hundreds-of-autopilot-workers-in-latest-staff-cut?sref=0lt16h2M

The best explanation for the existence of Venus is a comet collision with mars The debris from the collision would have been ejected from the system in the direction of the Sun and then would have followed a highly eccentric orbit around the Sun in the same manner as a short-period comets Some of the mars debris would have rained down on earth. The highly eccentric orbit would have allowed the debris to be captured by the gravitational field of the Earth The result of the collision would be a mass of molten rock orbiting the Sun and the formation of the Moon would be the ejection of the molten rock from the collision what if the comet collision formed the Moon and Venus Leaving mars without an atmosphere and with less mass. The moon may not been the result of a mars sized object colliding with earth. HOW DID THE PLANET MARS BECOME SO LITTLE AND SO DRY? The early planet Mars was much larger than the planet Mars is today The planet Mars had a large atmosphere and water on the surface At some point after the formation of the planet Mars it was struck by a comet The collision caused the planet Mars to be greatly eroded and the planet Mars to lose most of its atmosphere The collision also caused the planet Mars to move from the asteroid belt to its current orbit The planet Mars had a large atmosphere and water Mars has no proven evidence of life. However, discovery of water is non controversial 1.Mars would be the most likely planet to inhabitant in the future. Mars may hold the keys to our future and our past 2. Mars terrain is very similar to the Southern California Mojave Desert. 3. Mars is filled with iron oxidized dust 4. Mar's volcano Olympus Mound rises 15 miles above its surface. 5. The delta 2 rocket transported the spirit to mars. Mars is cold dry and desolate and temperatures drop to a 100 degrees below zero at night. 6. Mars is half the size of earth and is 34 million miles from us. 7. Mars may have been warm enough for water to flow across its surface. Mars has had water in its past 8. As the Mars iron core cooled it could no longer maintain the magnetic field and the solar storms stripped the atmosphere. 9. Tons of ice might be locked below the Mars polar caps. The cap is frozen carbon dioxide. 10. Impacts of asteroids suggest that the impact profile is hitting permafrost. 11. In 1964, Mariner 4, set back pictures of Mars, with only one pass. What it saw was crater like on the moon. The Mariner reveal a dry desert on Mars. Mariner 9, orbited the planet for weeks and make a complete mapping. It discovered the thesaurus bulge. Mariner valley is a rupture in the landscape the width of the US. 12. In 1976, the voyager put a robot to collect soil samples and test for life, no definitive evidence of biology. 13. Discovered in the Antarctica, the ALH84001 was determined to be a rock from Mars. Under an electron microscope, scientist see carbonates. Was the structure a worm or part of a bacteria? Was it biological? Probably not. NASA claims ALH84001 was early evidence of life on Mars. No consensus was established. The major of people though the structures were mineral activity. Could microbial life exist on the polar poles of Mars? No evidence 14. In 2003, The Delta 2 rocket delivered equipment to Mars. The robotic rovers spirit and opportunity are exploring mars. Neither robots have discovered signs of life, but they did find evidence of water. 15. Phoenix will excavate the polar soil. Mars may have internal heat causing water flows.

What is the 20-year horizon? Mauldin observed that every period of 9.6 percent market returns started with low P/E ratios. The P/E ratio amount strongly correlated with the trend in Market P/E ratio and none of the strong gains occurred without rising P/E ratios. Looking at the market trend, half of the investors realized compound returns less than 4 percent and 10 percent generated gains more than 10 percent. Subtracting inflation, taxes, and dividends the historical growth in earnings has been 2 percent. Only new companies have been able to produce 3 percent. Pensions need 7 percent in real growth. Is it possible some pensions are 1/7 their value? It is impossible to get a 9 percent growth assumption in a 5 percent bond market. Companies often make a 70/30 balance of stock to bonds. The cost for companies to drop their expected rate of return from 9.2 percent to 6.5 would be $30 billion according to CSFB assuming no recession that would correct the DOW to 6,000.

Thoughts on silver

Venus passed by the earth in close proximity to its Lithosphere causing catastrophic change on the earth: volcanoes, earthquakes, violent storms and hurricanes. Venus impact on Mars caused debris to float in spacing and asteroids rained down on the earth for nearly two decades. The book, “Earth, Moon, and Planets” Dr. Whipple predicted and postulated worlds in collision 1,500 and 4,700 years ago when a comet collided with and disrupted the planetoids that revolve by the thousands between Mars and Jupiter. Dr. Whipple studies the comet Encke and its last encounter 1,500 years ago. The first visit to the earth by the comet was in 1500 BC at the time of Mose and caused the dividing of the Red Sea. The result of the earth pass through the tail of the comet was intense heat, enormous tides, incessant violent electrical disruption between the comet and the planet. The second visit by the comet was 52 years later and coincided with Joshua’s attempt to make the sun and the moon stand still. Professor Hans Pettersson of the Oceanographic Institute at Goteborg found “evidences of great catastrophes that altered the face of the earth”, “climate catastrophes”, “volcanic catastrophes”, and “tectonic catastrophes that raised or lowered the ocean bottom hundreds and event thousands of feet” spreading huge tidal waves that destroy coastal life. Petterson discovered that the Pacific and Indian ocean-beds consisted of “largely of volcano ash” that settle after an eruption. Patterson also found evidence of a heavy shower of meteors, several hundred times greater than astronomers admit. The Comet collided with Mars in 747 BC and lost its tail and became transformed into Venus. The Venus orbit became near circular. Mars orbit was affected and in 687 BC it nearly collided with Earth. At certain epoch in the past the position of Mars and Venus were identical. Olympus mon was formed as electrons streamed to the top of the mound. The surface was raised by electrical force. The summit became a focal point of negative charged area in a region surround by positive charged surface. A second discharge formed a ring around the cauldron., a Hale-Bopp discharge Mars temperature ranges from minus 23 Celsius to minus 137 Celsius. Mars has no electromagnetic shield. For Mars to have life, it must have water. Olympus Mons is 27 kilometeres above datum and the floor of the canyon system is known as Valles Marineris. Olympus Mons has 700 km lava scab, 80 km summit caldera, and a outer edge of the lava scab of 5,000 km in diameter. Valles Marineries chasm is 7 km deep and 200 km wide, four times deeper and six times wider and ten times longer than the Grand Canyon. The Valles Marineries run across the floor of the Chryse Planitia basin. Argyne, Hellas, and Isidis meteorites transformed Mars. Argyre crater is 3 km deep and 630 km wide impacted by 36 km object. Hellas is 5 km deep and 2,000 km wide impacted by a 1,00 km object. Isidis is 1,500 km wide impacted by a 50 km object. Mars has over 3,305 craters that are wider than 30 km and 93 percent lie south of the line of dichotomy. Mars gravitational pull could have broke up a passing body into fragments. The lack of a strong atmosphere would increase the likelihood of impact and may have trigger volcanic eruptions on the opposite side of Mars. Large fragments of Mars surface could have been ejected into space.

When new money or credit is added to an economy, thus diluting the existing supply, the general level of prices (aggregate prices) will rise, assuming the amount of goods and services within the system stays the same." This dilution causes the banks to raise rates to cover the devaluation. More dollars are required to buy a given quantity of goods. The dollar value is diminished. Inflation is monetary expansion: more money chasing a diminish supply of goods and services. "Anything that artificially increases aggregate demand for goods and services is inflation." The demand is artificial because it does not result from increased productivity, but from inflation. Inflation is paying today's debts with cheaper money in the future. The result is that prices rise. In true economic growth, price fall, as increases in productivity output raise the supply of goods relative to the supply of money.