ML - The way the world works - analyzing how things work

The principle of hierarchy is essential for solving problems in the real world We are presented with a vast amount of information, and much of it is irrelevant or too complex to develop in detail It is not always practical to review all the information, to make all the calculations, to check all the possibilities, to pursue all the options When we deal with a large number of possibilities, we must arrange them in some sort of hierarchical classification When we try to solve a problem, we must identify the relevant information, select the most important possibilities, and isolate the crucial choices If we deal with a complex system, we must understand the principles operating at higher levels and the principles of organization at lower levels When we see a large number of possibilities, we can often simplify them by arranging them in an orderly list; we can classify them according to general categories When we see a large number of objects, we can often simplify them by arranging them in a hierarchy according to their similarities and differences The same principle applies to large numbers of options or possibilities, which can be reduced to a few basic alternatives or a few basic principles Usually, we do not need to be familiar with all the details of lower levels or with all the branches of a large hierarchy We do not need to know all the steps in a large process, or all the pieces in a complex system If we want to give a presentation, we do not need a detailed knowledge of the subject If we want to understand the principles of a large system, we do not need a detailed knowledge of all its components If we want to solve a problem, we do not need all the information in its totality We do not need to be able to work through all the steps of a process in order to understand the principles of a process We do not need to know how all the parts function in order to understand how a system operates We do not need to know all the details of a large hierarchy in order to understand and use that hierarchy We do not need to have a detailed knowledge of all the data or all the steps or all the options in order to use and manage the data or to solve the problem We do not need to know everything about a large system in order to understand or work with that system We do not need to know all the details about everything We do not need all the knowledge We just need to know the knowledge that is relevant and important

The Indian government has been working on a plan to trade with Iran in rupees and the first test of this will be the sale of crude oil to India The Iranian government has given permission to the Indian government to use Indian rupees in the payment of crude oil imports from Iran The payment will be carried out through the rupee-rial account This arrangement is expected to be a big boost for the rupee as the Indian rupee will become a recognised global currency The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also agreed to the USD-free trade with Iran and has given its approval in this regard to the Indian government The rupee-rial account will be a beneficiary of the IMF decision The rupee-rial account was activated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with an aim to facilitate the trade between India and Iran and the opening of the account was a part of the payment mechanism under the India-Iran-Afghanistan Trilateral Agreement on Establishment of International Transport and Transit Corridor The rupee-rial account was expected to be a part of the India-Iran-Afghanistan Agreement on Trade, Transit and Investment The new mechanism is expected to bring down transaction costs, simplify procedures, reduce the turnaround time and reduce the double-payment problem Iran is India's third-largest oil supplier after Iraq and Saudi Arabia In 2013 the India has imported about 5.8 million tonnes of crude oil from Iran The Iranian government wants to increase this to two million barrels per day It is believed that the rupee-rial account could become a part of the payment mechanism for India-Iran crude oil trade The rupee-rial account is expected to bring down the cost of imports and exports between India and Iran https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-imports-5-82-million-tons-oil-from-iran/articleshow/27536653.cms It is believed that the rupee-rial account will reduce the transaction costs considerably and will also save time as the payment will be made only once The rupee-rial account is expected to further deepen the trade ties between India and Iran Trump sanctions against Iran cut off oil to India. Iran’s petroleum  output has increased to I million barrels per day and it is seeking other markets, which were blocked after US imposed sanctions on them. India has been the second biggest buyer of Iranian oil after China before sanctions were imposed in 2019. The bilateral trade between the two countries during 2020-21 was $2.10 billion, a 56%  decline compared to the previous year of $4.80 billion. While India exports rice, tea, sugar and fresh fruits, pharmaceuticals, machinery, jewellery to Iran, imports include dry fruits, chemical glass, semiprecious stone and leather. https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2022/jun/09/crude-oil-imports-may-figure-in-india-iran-talks-2463508.amp In the pandemic year 2020-21, over 84 percent of India’s petroleum product demand (crude oil and petroleum products) was met with imports. Gross petroleum imports of about 239 million tonnes (MT) of value US$77 billion accounted for over 19 percent of India’s total imports in 2020-21. in 2020-21 India sourced crude oil from 42 countries. The top oil exporter to India in 2020-21 was Iraq followed by Saudi Arabia.  Iraq’s share in India’s imports increased from about 9% in 2009-10 to over 22% in 2020-21. Saudi Arabia’s share has remained steady between 17-18% of India’s imports over a decade The entry of the USA as India’s 4th largest source of oil imports breaks the trend of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, Nigeria, and Venezuela dominating India’s top five oil import sources for over two decades. Since 2020, Iran was no longer among the top 20 oil importers to India https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/indias-oil-imports/?amp

14. Deflation occurs when supply exceeds demand. World War I, when the began and 1917 when the U.S entered the war, U.S gold reserves rose 64%, as Europe exchanged its gold for U.S goods. Once the war end, gold continue to flow into the U.S as allies repaid their war debt. The credit base double during this time period, industrial machinery and equipment output rose by 205% and all producer durables increased by 257%. This surge in industrial capacity created an oversupply by 1926 and as a result the wholesale price declined. In 1921 the fed sold large amounts of government debt and caused credit to contract by 8% through the economy into a brief recession. When the dollar earnings of the surplus nations are deposited into their domestic banking systems, those dollars, being exogenous to those banking system, act as high powered money and spark off an explosion of credit creation. Excessive credit creation permits over-investment, which, in turn, causes excess capacity and deflation. So long as the huge US current account deficits continue to flood the world with dollars, global deflationary pressures are very likely to continue to build, as reckless credit creation results in more industrial capacity than can be absorbed at the prevailing price level. 15. Falling product prices make it impossible for businesses to repay their bank loans. A similar process occurs when excessive credit creation causes asset price bubbles in the stock market and the property market. Rapid loan growth causes asset prices to rise. Frequently banks accept the inflated assets as collateral for additional loans. This process continued for so long in Japan that the imperial gardens in Tokyo came to be considered as valuable as California. Eventually, it becomes impossible to pay the interest expense on such extraordinarily overvalued assets. The owners default, the banks then refuse to make new loans, the house of cards in asset prices begins to shake, panic sets in, the bubble pops and banks fail. 16. During 1999 and 2000, the final two years of the New Paradigm Bubble, imports into the United States jumped by $307 billion, an increase of 33% over the level of 1998. Then in 2001, US imports fell by $79 billion, or by 6.3%. The impact of that decline in US demand on the rest of the world was extraordinary. 17. That year, the economic growth rates of all the United States’ major trading partners decelerated abruptly. Stock markets experienced a spiral downward affect, commodity prices fell, and government finances came under strain all around the world. The same consequences can be expected during the second phase of the recession, when the US consumer is finally forced to stop spending more than he earns. At that time, imports into the US will decline and all those countries that rely on exporting to the United States will suffer. China will be one of the hardest hit since it a leading supplier of cheap consumer goods to the US. When China’s exports to the US decline it will not have the cash to act as an engine of growth for the rest of Asia. Asia should not harbor false hopes of China replacing the Unites States as importer of last resort. Instead, Asian policy makers should recognize that the era of export led growth will end once the US current account deficits can no longer be financed and they should act now to develop sufficient domestic demand.

1. Gold Trade created equilibrium in the trade deficit. Here's how it worked. Gold leaves the country to pay for the commodity. Since gold leaves credit would have to contract. The economy would recede. Price would become cheaper and gold would enter back into the country as exports of cheap products were purchased by foreign countries with gold payments. The inflow and outflow gold would seek equilibrium. A country experiencing a trade imbalance would accumulate more gold, the surplus would be credit, expanding credit would fuel an economic boom, provoke inflating prices, and inflated prices would slow down exports and import rise. 2. Gold reserves prevented budget deficits. With only a limited amount of credit available to the government, borrowing would drive up interest rates making it more difficult for business to borrow money. The government would crowd out the private sector with its borrowing. Government deficits also tend to result in trade deficits and gold outflows. Initially the government spending would stimulate the economy and import increase inline with the growth of the economy; however, as gold left the country recession pressures would return, gold would leave the country, interest rates rise, and price fall. Recognizing the undesirable effect deficit spending would have on the economy the government would attempt to maintain balanced budget as long as the country was at peace.

Trade deficit The reason for the trade deficit can be boiled down to the United States as a whole spending more money than it makes, which results in a current account deficit. That additional spending must, by definition, go toward foreign goods and services. Financing that spending happens in the form of either borrowing from foreign lenders (which adds to the U.S. national debt) or foreign investing in U.S. assets and businesses—the capital account. The deficit has averaged $535 billion since 2000, much higher than in previous decades, when it accounted for well below 2 percent of GDP. The United States ran a $419 billion goods deficit with China in 2018. The next largest contributor to the goods deficit, at $151 billion, is the European Union, followed by Mexico at $81.5 billion, Japan at $67.6 billion, and Malaysia at $26.5 billion. Beijing undertook deep economic reforms and implemented policies to subsidize production, accelerate industrialization, and boost exports. In the process China earned the moniker “the world’s factory.” Economists also note the acceleration of Chinese export growth after the country’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-trade-deficit-how-much-does-it-matter China is buying US treasuries they pay for it by loaning money to US consumers to buy their products and then the US consumer pays for it with interest to the Chinese they are buying US treasuries they pay for it by loaning money to US consumers to buy their products and then the US consumer pays for it with interest to the Chinese The trade deficit is a problem It's a one-sided problem If the trade deficit was one sided in both directions, then the balance would be zero A trade deficit is not at all the same thing as a capital account surplus the trade deficit is a zero sum game trade deficit means when the US sells stuff to China they are only getting half of the deal China gets paid they get the stuff then they lend the money to the US to buy the stuff China has already sold they don't spend that money on buying US goods and services they are a net seller of US goods and services the only time China buys US goods and services is when the US is a net seller of US goods and services it is a one sided problem and the trade deficit is a zero sum game trade deficit means when the US sells stuff to China they are only getting half of the deal china gets paid they get the stuff then they lend the money to the US to buy the stuff China has already sold they don't spend that money on buying US goods and services they are a net seller of US goods and servicesthe only time China buys US goods and services is when the US is a net seller of US goods and services China sells more to the US than they buy from the US But the US, along with Germany and Japan, all purchase more than they sell to China, so they have a surplus in their trade with China

Orange county misread the credit market trend and experience massive losses and bankruptcy from a derivatives collapse. $1.6 billion upside down in trades, no exist, panick, forced restructuring. Buying and selling derivatives is gambling. Someone is a winner and someone is a loser. Some of the biggest users of derivatives are government sponsered enterprises (GSE): Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and Freddie Mac.

Stockton, Calif , is the latest city to file for bankruptcy protection It€™s a city of nearly 295,000 people that can€™t keep up with its bills Stockton is the largest city in the state to ever file for bankruptcy Its a city that depends heavily on the agricultural industry But the city wasn’t€™t hit by a natural disaster It€™s been struggling for years because of its own poor fiscal management Stockton has struggled with its finances for years, including a campaign promise to give every citizen of the city a free garbage can They also had a generous pension plan for city employees But Stockton was in denial They had been spending money they didn€™t have The city was spending more than they were bringing in, and they weren’€™t paying their bills The city was also spending money on a sports arena The city was paying $300,000 a year on a loan the city could never pay back The city had been spending money they didn’€™t have, and it only got worse The city’ €™s bond rating kept dropping The city spent $7 5 million on consultants to help the city get out of debt, but didn’t work The city’€™s financial situation was bleak, and it had a pension plan that was underfunded by $900 million The city filed for bankruptcy protection on June 28, 2012 HOW MUCH MONEY DOES VENTURA COUNTY CALIFORNIA NEED? The Ventura county was struggling financially, but had a plan to increase revenues and cut expenses They were hoping to cut $20 million in expenses and increase revenues by $22 million They were hoping to delay $12 million in capital projects The county was hoping to save $15 million by renegotiating contracts with its unions The county was hoping to save $7 million by closing two facilities, and save another $2 million by eliminating 100 positions The county was also looking to cut $3 million by merging several departments They were also hoping to generate $7 million by selling off county assets The county was also asking for a $5 million bailout from the city of Thousand Oaks https://www.reuters.com/article/us-stockton-bankruptcy-cause/how-stockton-went-broke-a-15-year-spending-binge-idUSBRE8621DL20120703 In 2022 Stockton approved budget was $900 million https://www.recordnet.com/story/news/politics/government/2022/06/26/stockton-officials-approve-nearly-900-million-city-budget/7716732001/

the answer is to get their money out of China Chinese banks are tightly controlled and regulated by the Chinese government Chinese companies have been heavily controlled and restricted by the Chinese government The Chinese government€™s control over the Chinese economy has been tightening over the last decade

Chindia 1. China and India share many characteristics as future growth markets: immense upwardly mobility, an emerging middle class whose aspirations and outlook on life differ from those of the previous generation. Rapid social changes and greater diversity means companies must employee more sophistication in tailoring their message and products to a different consumer segment.

Enoch and Jehovah will ride a white horse. Jehovah the law giver will ride a white horse called faithful and truth, and a host of army will follow Him on white horses. Enoch and his people were celestial beings and taken up into heaven. Enoch and his people will return prior to the millennium. The saints will have departed from association with Babylon lest they become like them. The saints’ departure from Babylon prevents them from experiencing the plagues reserved for the harlot. Repentance provides the way to not to pay the penalty of the broken laws of God. The harlot teaches men she is doing what the Lord told her to do: to eat, drink and be merry. The Lord will burn up the wicked. The destruction will come quickly, and there will not be signs prior to the pending destruction. He will come suddenly to do His work.