Independent Thinking

Tensions between India and Pakistan have surged following a deadly attack in Kashmir and air strikes by India inside Pakistan. With nuclear risks, regional diplomacy, and rising domestic pressures in play, what could prevent this crisis from spiralling further?  In this episode, Bronwen Maddox discusses what this means for South Asia and the world with Marion Messmer, a senior research fellow with our International Security Programme; Chietigj Bajpaee, the senior research fellow for South Asia with our Asia-Pacific Programme; and Stephen Farrell, our head of News and Comment. Read our latest: After India’s missile strikes on Pakistan, the risk of accidental escalation is high India–UK free trade agreement signals deepening bilateral relations Urgent mediation to save the Indus Waters Treaty could be a route to de-escalation between India and Pakistan Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Amanda Nunn. Executive producer - John Pollock. 'Independent Thinking' is an Indio Media production for Chatham House. Read the Spring issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Orysia Lutsevych runs the Ukraine forum at Chatham House, focusing on Ukraine's political landscape, while Matthew Savill is the Director of Military Sciences at RUSI, bringing military strategy expertise. They discuss Ukraine's tough choices regarding potential peace deals and territorial losses amid ongoing aggression from Russia. The conversation covers battlefield dynamics, Ukraine's resilience, and the implications of shifting international alliances, emphasizing the critical balance between sovereignty and survival in turbulent times.

Joining the conversation are David Lubin, a senior research fellow at Chatham House with a background in emerging markets investing, and Isabelle Mateos y Lago, chief economist at BNP Paribas, formerly with the IMF. They dive into the shifting dynamics of global finance, questioning if the U.S. dollar is losing its dominant status amid rising alternative currencies. They discuss the geopolitical ramifications of China’s strategic financial moves, America’s tariffs, and what these changes mean for the future of economic power and stability.

Leena Koni Hoffmann, a notable researcher at Chatham House, discusses her extensive findings on corruption in Nigeria. She dives into the roots of this pervasive issue, revealing how historical governance influences have shaped its current state. The conversation sheds light on the role of religious institutions as moral leaders in the fight against corruption. Hoffmann emphasizes the need for accountable leadership and reform in the electoral process to restore public trust and promote integrity in governance.

In this engaging discussion, Yu Jie, a China expert from Chatham House, Robert Evan Ellis from the U.S. Army War College, and Bruno Binetti, a U.S.-Latin America relations analyst, dive into China's expanding influence in Latin America. They unveil China's strategic economic engagements, from trade with Brazil and Argentina to infrastructure projects aimed at strengthening ties. The guests also explore the implications of U.S. policies and tariffs, revealing how these actions might inadvertently bolster China's position in the region and shift local allegiances.

Jason Furman, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Obama, and David Lubin, an expert at Chatham House, delve into the ramifications of Trump's new trade tariffs. They discuss the potential job losses in U.S. manufacturing and the broader implications for global trade dynamics. The duo examines the influence of tariffs on currencies and inflation, particularly focusing on how China's economy is responding. They highlight the critical need for nations to rethink trade policies to boost globalization amidst rising autarky.

In a thought-provoking discussion, Creon Butler, Olivia O’Sullivan, and Nicolai von Ondarza explore whether Europe can step up as a global leader as the US's influence wanes. They tackle the complexities of European unity in economic strategies, illustrating the differing trade policies of member states like Germany and Hungary. The trio also delves into Europe's defense capabilities and the necessity for coordinated action amid geopolitical tensions. With Brexit impacting UK-EU relations, the conversation emphasizes the urgency for Europe to take on greater responsibility in leadership.

In this discussion, Yu Jie, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, William Matthews, a security expert, and David Lubin, an economist, dive into China's view of the U.S. under Trump. They analyze China's shifting diplomatic strategies and military ambitions amid U.S. policy changes. The conversation also touches on the risks of economic decoupling, tariffs, and how these factors influence global trade dynamics. They further explore the implications for AI technology and international relations as tensions rise.

In this week's episode Haid Haid, Rim Turkmani, and Lina Khatib discuss the recent developments in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime.  We delve into the country's economic struggles, the rise of interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the resurgence of sectarian violence, and the challenges facing Syria's path to democracy. It also explores the roles of regional and international players, including Turkey, Israel, and Iran, in shaping Syria’s future. Read our latest: Ukraine enters a perilous phase of fighting and talking with no assured end in sight France should join NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements to strengthen European deterrence China’s ‘two sessions’: What did we learn about the Chinese economy? Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Jonathan Coates. Executive Producer: John Pollock. 'Independent Thinking' is an Indio Media production for Chatham House. Read the Spring issue of The World Today  Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧  Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Sir John Sawers, former head of MI6, and James Heappey, former Armed Forces Minister, dive into pressing questions about the UK's military readiness amidst rising global tensions. They explore the implications of increased defense spending and the necessity for modernizing military strategies to counter evolving warfare. The conversation highlights challenges in recruitment, the pivotal role of intelligence in strategy, and the need for innovation in nuclear deterrents, all while reflecting on the lessons learned from conflicts like the Ukraine-Russia war.