Independent Thinking

Dr Yu Jie, a Chatham House China specialist on elite politics and military shifts, and Ben Bland, head of the Asia-Pacific Programme, discuss opaque leadership moves in Beijing. They cover military purges, risks to PLA modernization, UK policy trade-offs between trade and security, renewables and infrastructure concerns, and how London can navigate pressures from rival superpowers.

Grégoire Roos, Director of the Europe Programme at Chatham House, dives into the geopolitical complexities stirred by Trump's recent speech at Davos. He analyzes Trump's retreat from aggressive tactics over Greenland, discussing the resulting erosion of trust in US leadership. The conversation shifts to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's vision for middle powers amid global disorder. Roos argues that Europe could leverage its single market to influence US decisions and explores the broader implications for China and the future of transatlantic relations.

Host Bronwen Maddox is joined in the studio by Laurel Rapp, Director of Chatham House's US and North America Programme; Marc Weller, Director of the International Law Programme and down the line by Juno Berthelsen, of Greenland's opposition Naleraq party, which favours independence. Read our latest: Who owns Greenland? As Carney visits China to diversify Canada's trade, the 'Donroe Doctrine' further strains US relations US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO's future. But European countries are not helpless Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Winter issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Bronwen Maddox is joined by Marc Weller, Director of Chatham House's International Law Programme; Laurel Rapp, Director of the US and North America Programme; and Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America. They discuss the failure of regional diplomacy that preceded the 3 January 2026 attack by the US on Venezuela, the tentative response of the international community in its aftermath, the domestic impact on American politics, historic precedents like the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and how it is likely to influence Russia and China's actions in their regions. Read our latest: The US capture of President Nicolás Maduro – and attacks on Venezuela – have no justification in international law President Trump's ambition to rebuild Venezuela's oil sector will be challenging, especially if prices continue to fall Trump's Venezuela attack should serve as a warning even to US allies US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO's future. But European countries are not helpless Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by Stephen Farrell. Read the Winter issue of The World Today Listen to The Climate Briefing podcast 🎧 Listen to Africa Aware podcast 🎧 Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you find your podcasts - please listen, review, and subscribe.

Join experts David Lubin, Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House, Marion Messmer, Director of the International Security Programme, and Yu Jie, a specialist on China, as they dissect the geopolitical landscape post-Trump's first year. They explore surprising shifts in US foreign policy, the rebirth of the Monroe Doctrine, and the complexities of US-China relations. The panel debates the likelihood of conflict, examines China's strategic priorities, and assesses the implications for smaller nations caught between superpowers. Expect insights into global trade tensions and future geopolitical tests!

Leslie Vinjamuri, CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, offers insights on the implications of Trump's National Security Strategy for Europe, indicating a sharp break with the post-Cold War order. Yu Jie discusses China's position as an economic competitor and speculates on tensions easing. Renad Mansour highlights the U.S. pivot from Middle Eastern involvement, addressing the fragile Gaza ceasefire and Iran's adapting strategy. Overall, the discussion reveals a climate of anxiety and uncertainty about shifting global dynamics.

Grégoire Roos, a Chatham House director, provides keen insights into Europe’s defense strategies and the repercussions of shifting US negotiations with Russia. Natalie Sabanadze, a former Georgian ambassador, emphasizes the risks of Putin’s bluffing tactics and the need for cohesive transatlantic relations. Jaroslava Barbieri shares on-the-ground realities in Ukraine, discussing political dynamics and the financial needs of €136 billion to sustain resilience. Together, they explore the narratives necessary for bolstering European support while underscoring the urgency of solidifying unity in the face of evolving threats.

This discussion features Olivia O'Sullivan, a director and policy expert on UK politics, James Kynge, a senior researcher on China and Asia-Pacific economic strategies, and Sébastien Maillard, an associate fellow on European politics and economics. They dive into the implications of the UK's latest budget amid political leaks and constrained choices due to Labour's manifesto. Comparisons are drawn between UK and Asian growth strategies, highlighting the challenges of a slow EU reset and the urgent need for reform to boost productivity in Europe.

In a compelling discussion, Ahmed Soliman, a Senior Research Fellow, explores the dynamics of the Sudan conflict, revealing how control of resources fuels violence. Hubert Kinkoh highlights the devastating humanitarian impact, especially in El Fasher, where civilians face mass killings and dire conditions. Kholood Khair provides insight into the collapse of essential services and regional actors' roles, while Bashair Ahmed emphasizes the importance of protecting civilians and supporting local responses. The conversation delves into the complexities of geopolitical interests in a strife-torn Sudan.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former Ukraine Defence Minister, provides insight into military strategy and the urgent need for Western support. Daryna Marchak, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Economy, reveals the surprising GDP recovery and challenges of energy attacks. Simon Smith, Chair of Chatham House's Ukraine Forum, critiques the cautious Western aid approach and emphasizes the necessity of a multi-year support plan. Together, they discuss the harsh impacts of Russian strikes on civilians and the imperative for timely weapons and energy supplies to survive the winter.